shadowfax World Wide: how many M4.0 or greater earthquakes will there be on 4 April 2008?
11 as of settlement request.
Link to screenshot: http://i154.photobucket.com/albums/s249/DrFeelwrong/eaethquake.jpg
Background:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
Remember: wagering suspends at midnight Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/utc.html
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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0 - 3 |
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4 - 6 |
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7 - 9 |
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10 - 12 |
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13 or more |
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Suspend date: Thu 3rd Apr 5pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 5th Apr 7am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 3rd Apr 5pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: 0 - 3: 15%, 4 - 6: 20%, 7 - 9: 30%, 10 - 12: 20%, 13 or more: 15%
Action history:
shadowfax 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: I'll pass along the questions of settlement for markets such as these. Currently though on the date I'll take a screenshot of the page and then link to it in the settlement details. 
elly: Suspend date reached
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
ryanj: 11 as of settlement request.
Link to screenshot: http://i154.photobucket.com/albums/s249/DrFeelwrong/eaethquake.jpg
tisha: Earthquake links are settled according to information available at the time of settlement, as it is undesirable to have questions suspended until the availability of final data, which does not have a defined time frame.
In future, the time and date when all earthquake settlement links are checked will be posted.
Suspend date: Thu 3rd Apr 5pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 5th Apr 7am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 3rd Apr 5pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (68)
68 predictions
bigken1
mattsnever
dragon01
jenniandboys
space_oracle
Comments (9)
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But:
Its apparent that at least some of the sensors are NOT realtime and are reported hours or days after the event. This will affect the 1+ questions more than the 4+ questions, but last week's 4+ question settled as 10 earthquakes on 3/28 and by this morning I count 11.
I was watching the 1+ very closely: it reported 85 right after midnight GMT but by 12 hours later was at 90. Now it reports 118 for the same day. (Should resettle? will go flag)
If we're going to continue these questions, there needs to be a determined settlement time and someone willing to take snapshots at that time otherwise these can get a little dicey. Will open getsatisfaction thread if no one else has when I get back home tonight.
we should still suspend wagering at current time, but settle after all the quakes are in.
I am open to any reasonable time period. perhaps a day or 2 would do it.
we will see if any more appear...
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
Thanks!
In future, the time and date when all earthquake settlement links are checked will be posted. An amendment to the Rules has been made.
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