Will economic stimulus checks be sent out before May 1, 2008?
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/2008/04/21/daily38.html
Background:>
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Suspend date: None Settlement date: Sun 27th Apr 10:24am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 27th Apr 10:24am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 95%
Action history:
http://www.irs.gov/irs/article/0,,id=177937,00.html
Suspend date: None Settlement date: Sun 27th Apr 10:24am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 27th Apr 10:24am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (145)
145 predictions
Comments (13)
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Comment on the first settlement was "IRS is now stating they won't be sent out before May." It's an announcement.
Now this is resettled with a reference to an article where it states "San Antonio taxpayers should start receiving economic stimulus rebate checks on Monday, April 28" from April 25th. It's an announcement too.
What will happen, when they do NOT send out those checks on Monday, April 28th?
Can someone explain to me what is going on in this market and why the settlement has been done and now has been redone and might even be redone once again?
Settlement on announcement vs outcome: We've had this debate before. Generally, it has seemed much safer to settle based on the announcement of an action rather than wait for it to happen ('ala Spitzer's resignation or Florida's intention to not re-vote). As long as it seems quite likely that the person/agency/etc fully intends to carry through with their announcement and isn't widely regarded to be political posturing (i.e. all the people who say they have no interest in being Vice President).
For an agency as bloated and bulky as the IRS, if they say they can't get something done before a certain date, I think its reasonable to believe it won't be able to happen. In this case however, apparently Bush has exerted tremendous pressure and the IRS got a spiffy new computer program. So now, they are able to send them out early. I think this is a good example for the practice of: settle at announcement and resettle if there is a major change of circumstances. If you don't agree with that practice, then its worth discussing (over at www.getsatisfaction.com/hubdub -- I don't want to hijack this thread), but that is the current methodology.
Final thought as to the strength of the article - I've been having trouble myself finding another article that discusses it, but I did watch Bushie make the announcement last week that the stimulus "checks" (deposits) would start rolling out today. Maybe no one is overly excited that they're coming out a couple of days early so its not getting reported on. I dunno.
Wait, final, final thought: Should we count direct deposit refunds as "checks". I think yes. It seems common sense that this question was getting at: "When will the economic stimuls payments start going out" and not only worried about the literal paper checks.
(Disclosure: I had no h$ in this market)
Here in the UK, the BBC is reporting the early send out of checks, so there are other sources reporting what bizjournals did. But seeing as there is some concern regarding settlement here's the explanation: When the market was first settled there were disagreements over its settlement because of the apprehension that something like what has happened would happen. So because of the confusion regarding settlement and the unclear settlement details I've resettled the market. This is due to the fact that because of the confusion concrete settlement to one side wasn't possible. The market will not be resettled again, as both sides now have their winnings.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
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