Created Fri 22nd Feb 2008 2:17pm PST by

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$72,934)

Will the Hubdub Community Correctly Predict the Outcome of This Event?

Settled as Yes

Hamilton was the favorite and won

Background:

Background: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Formula_1_Who_will_win_the_Australian_GP_in_Melbourne_on_1632008_2737/view

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

58%

42%

Settled as Yes on Sun 16th Mar 2008 1:23pm PST

Activity: H$29,150
Predictions: 43
Comments: 11

Suspend date: Sat 15th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 16th Mar 2008 1:23pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 15th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Fri 22nd Feb 2008 2:17pm PST by

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$72,934)

Settlement requested Fri 22nd Feb 2008 7:04pm PST by

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$72,934)

: I created this question, but the settlement/suspend date was not recorded. Please set is at 23:59pm PST on March 15, 2008.

Thanks,
AnAverageAmerican

Edited Sat 23rd Feb 2008 12:55am PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

Clarified Sat 23rd Feb 2008 12:59am PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

: I am assuming that we settle this as a 'Yes' if the favorite in the Formula 1 question then subsequently wins the event.

Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 12:41pm PST by

tomg

Settlement requested Fri 14th Mar 2008 9:08pm PST by

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,394)

: i've seen a few questions with "community" in them. in this case their asking if the "community" will correctly predict the out come of an auto race. unless everybody votes the same (yes or no) then the "community" will not correctly predict the out come. some will lose...some will win. i say void the question or give the no's the win.

Suspended Sat 15th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sun 16th Mar 2008 2:21am PST by

rohan

: Favourite :Hamilton

Winner:Hamilton

Answer:YES

Settled as 'Yes' Sun 16th Mar 2008 1:23pm PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

: Hamilton was the favorite and won

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Predictions (43)

1 year ago

newswrangler [Power User]

predicted Yes (H$20 at 33%)

1 year ago

rohan

predicted Yes (H$100 at 25%)

1 year ago

fellcolor Level 15, Seer (H$374,393)

predicted No (H$50 at 75%)

1 year ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,394)

predicted No (H$20 at 54%)

1 year ago

corky

predicted Yes (H$50 at 46%)

Comments (11)

infernalmachine [Power User]

love this question. someone should ask whether THIS question will be predicted correctly. or two questions, each asking whether the other one will be predicted correctly. ow. my head hurts thinking about it. but excellent question, anaverageamerican!

posted 1 year ago

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$72,934)

I've been looking for a good question, with international appeal, lots of possible outcomes, not too much prior community investment and the possibility of predictability (not a question like, "Will the first letter in the NY Times Sunday Headline be a consonant?") to base this question on.

My intent is to promote the community's ability to predict outcomes, but I'm worried that I will be remembered as the Hubdubber who first created HubDerivatives.

posted 1 year ago

skipper Level 1, Newbie (H$160)

infernalmachine, its a great idea!

posted 1 year ago

nigeleccles [Admin]

I've put in the requested end date/time and put in a clarification on how this will be settled. Great question. One thing to think about is the terminology of 'correctly predict'. To see how this can back fire check out this blog post: http://blog.hubdub.com/2008/01/10/prediction-markets-get-hit-in-the-clinton-bounce-back/

Also, my thinking is that the price of the yes on this market should move in line with the price of the favorite in the F1 question. Therefore bet on No!

posted 1 year ago

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$72,934)

Thanks Nigel. My expectations were in-line with your clarification, that this question should settle as Yes if the F1 question's highest percentage accurately reflects the winner of the race.

I'm not sure about betting on No, the odds do favor that outcome, but it does not account for the accuracy of community predictions. If you believe that futures markets are above-average predictors, you should bet Yes.

InfernalMachine challenged me to take it to another level, that questions is here:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_this_Question_Correctly_Predict_Whether_the_HD_Community_Will_Successfully_Predict_the_Outcome_of_this_Event_3025/view

posted 1 year ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

Taking it one step further, here's a new question:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_well_can_the_Hubdub_community_predict_the_behaviour_of_the_world_markets_next_week_3327/view

Hope you like it.

posted 1 year ago

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$72,934)

It's complicated, but I like it. I'm happy I'm not the only user trying to promote the community's ability to predict events. I'm not sure that futures markets are known to correctly predict multiple simultaneous outcomes in divergent areas, but it _is_ an interesting question.

posted 1 year ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,394)

theres no way the "Community" will predict this. well unless everybody votes yes or no. some will lose therefore the "Community" did not predict the out come correctly. this is based on an auto race...not just a yes or no vote. it needs voided or the no vote wins. community is a whole group..not a divided group. for instance..you can't say the community won the lottery cause one person-group of people who lives in the community won-had the winning ticket.

posted 1 year ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

The Community predicts in the same sense that the electorate "choose" a leader - some don't vote, others vote for someone other than the winner. There's nothing wrong with this question. Why so cranky?

posted 1 year ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,394)

theres a difference between "choosing" a leader and making a bet. the question is "Will the Hubdub Community Correctly Predict the Outcome of This Event?" thats saying the "whole" not what "%" of the community. i ain't cranky just saying in this question no has to win. if its the same sense as the electorate then the question should be...what % of the community will correctly predict. thats my point...it doesn't say a certain % of the community.

posted 1 year ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

I agree there are better ways to phrase the question. What it's asking is this: will the top selection in the F1 question actually win the race? The "Community" aspect is a loose way of referring to the idea that prediction markets actually predict events (arguably better than polls or experts). In other words, will the collective betting of the Hubdub community produce a favourite that actually wins the race? That's a reasonable question. Admittedly I've translated "Community" and "correctly predict".

posted 1 year ago

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