Created Fri 22nd Feb 2008 6:54pm PST by

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$73,158)

Will this Question Correctly Predict Whether the HD Community Will Successfully Predict the Outcome of this Event?

Settled as Yes

Hamilton was the favorite and won. The favorite winning was the favorite in the first derivative question.

Background:

Background: InfernalMachine, I can't resist the challenge (in the comments of the second question). My brain hurts too!

You are investing in the outcome of this question:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_Hubdub_Community_Correctly_Predict_the_Outcome_of_This_Event_3021/view

Which refers to the outcome of this question:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Formula_1_Who_will_win_the_Australian_GP_in_Melbourne_on_1632008_2737

Settlement details:As Settled by Hubdub Administrators.

Forecast history %

Yes

59%

41%

Settled as Yes on Sun 16th Mar 2008 1:24pm PST

Activity: H$15,172
Predictions: 26
Comments: 13

Suspend date: Sat 15th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 16th Mar 2008 1:24pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 15th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 22nd Feb 2008 6:54pm PST by

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$73,158)

Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 12:46pm PST by

tomg

Settlement requested Thu 13th Mar 2008 2:50pm PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

: Just testing this is working...

Suspended Sat 15th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sun 16th Mar 2008 2:22am PST by

rohan

: Please settle after settling http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_Hubdub_Community_Correctly_Predict_the_Outcome_of_This_Event_3021/setreq?s=1

Settled as 'Yes' Sun 16th Mar 2008 1:24pm PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

: Hamilton was the favorite and won. The favorite winning was the favorite in the first derivative question.

hide

Get widget!

Predictions (26)

2 years ago

newswrangler [Power User]

predicted No (H$20 at 43%)

2 years ago

chris

predicted No (H$100 at 43%)

2 years ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

predicted Yes (H$380 at 56%)

2 years ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

predicted No (H$50 at 49%)

2 years ago

goldneye Level 13, Psychic (H$51,393)

predicted Yes (H$50 at 50%)

Comments (13)

skipper Level 1, Newbie (H$260)

my head hurts... HubDerivatives...

posted 2 years ago

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$73,158)

Mine too .. kids 8^)

posted 2 years ago

steph

LOL, I love recursion.

= )

posted 2 years ago

ltmod

If you bet YES on the first, NO on the second, and YES on the third, do you break even? ;)

posted 2 years ago

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$73,158)

It depends on the odds, and hence on the predictions themselves. I haven't taken positions on my questions yet, but I'm thinking Yes on both.

posted 2 years ago

skipper Level 1, Newbie (H$260)

If you bet at all on the first derivative, you want to bet yes on this one.
Right?? because betting no here would say that your bet on the first one is wrong!

posted 2 years ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

unless you are hedging. it might be fun to have a whole category for derivatives. i like how it brings attention to the whole idea behind predictive markets -- that they actually do correctly predict things better than any other method. except maybe they don't, or maybe only in certain circumstances.

posted 2 years ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

For derivative lovers.
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_well_can_the_Hubdub_community_predict_the_behaviour_of_the_world_markets_next_week_3327/view
Enjoy....

posted 2 years ago

donal

HubDerivatives - I love it!

Keep up the good work Infernalmachine

Donal
(Hubdub Sports Ed)

posted 2 years ago

meanderingsearcher Level 1, Newbie (H$14)

wouldn't betting no negate the question ?

posted 2 years ago

lucidstates Level 14, Prophet (H$173,549)

WOW infernal, I like your thinkin' man! Hehehe, this is sooo much fun! I feel like my brain is on a hamster wheel and I'm running with one eye open while chewing on a gum ball :-P Hahaha, okay so it's not thattt complicated ;-) ... I trade stock options IRL, so I love hedging, or playing ups and downs simultaneously, it really dig this stuff ... I know this is not totally related but you may like it, have you ever heard of the Elliott Wave Theory aka Elliott Wave Principle? Man, that is deep analytics, if you like that sort of thing, predicting market trends and such ... Just a heads up, you seem like a numbers kind of guy.

lucidstates

posted 2 years ago

anaverageamerican Level 13, Psychic (H$73,158)

Numbers kind of guy? I thought InfernalMachine claimed to be a poet elsewhere in the comments 8^)

posted 2 years ago

melmel07 Level 8, Super-Pro (H$5,811)

it can be any combination w/o going against yourself..since the odds may change. i voted yes on the 2nd, and if i vote no on this one, i'm saying that i'm right on the 2nd one but the current majority is going to be wrong. this is awesome.

posted 2 years ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...

By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service

Related News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags

score: 10

NYSE Euronext and Abu Dhabi Securities Market Enter Strategic Cooperation Agreement

TMCnet.com 2 years ago

NYSE Euronext (NYX) and Abu Dhabi Securities Market (ADSM) have entered a cooperation agreement to jointly develop and explore new opportunities in ...

score: 10

Oil prices steady above US$106 a barrel after overnight plunge

Jakarta Post 2 years ago

Oil prices steadied Tuesday in Asia after falling more than US$4 a barrel overnight as investors worried that the sale of Bear Stearns Cos. is a ...

score: 10

Commodity futures funds mulled

China Daily 2 years ago

Regulators are mulling over a trial plan for domestic commodity futures funds. The goal is to reduce the number of retail investors on the domestic...

score: 10

CFTC, SEC Seek Cooperation

Institutional Investor 2 years ago

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) acting head, Walt Lukken, has said he will push ahead with the newfound cooperation between his agency...

score: 10

NYC?s Environmental Finance Business Takes Another Step: The New York Mercantile Exchange Goes Green ... for St. Patrick?s Day?

NY Observer - The Bridal Blog 2 years ago