kruijs
Hubdub Derivates: Are Hubdubers collective geniuses?
See comment 24 for mathematical explanation of why the result must be NO as of the close of the European markets on Thursday.
Background:
I asked the following 5 questions:
http://www.hubdub.com/m40505/
http://www.hubdub.com/m40506/
http://www.hubdub.com/m40507/
http://www.hubdub.com/m40508/
http://www.hubdub.com/m40509/
For each question, we score it by subtracting the average odds of the wrong answers from the odds of the right answer. Because the odds add to 100 and there are 4 wrong answers out of 5 choices, you can derive that the score S = 5/4 *cOdds -25 (where cOdds is the final odds of the correct answer). If the cOdds is 0% then S = -25, if 20% (as if we all threw a five-sided dice to make a pick) then S=0, and if 100% then S=100.
Take the average of these 5 scores (between -25 and 100, as is the average). Use the odds from the graph and the formula for S above. What's this value going to be?
To settle "YES", the average score must be above 50%.
Credits to infernalmachine for the original question (http://www.hubdub.com/users/infernalmachine): http://www.hubdub.com/m3327/
Can you do the math ... ?
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. When all 5 questions have been settled, the correctness score can be taken for each as follows: take the final odds "F" of the correct answer from the bar graph. Score "S" is given by S = (5/4)*F - 25
Finally take the average of these five scores. The scores and their average will each be in the range -25.00 to 100.00 (The scores and averages can be expressed EXACTLY to two decimal places.) The average is used to answer THIS question.
As judged by the HD editor/admin using above method.
| Yes |
| |||
| No |
|
- Activity: H$113,037 |
- Predictions: 150 |
Comments: 30
Suspend date: Fri 8th May 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 7th May 1:05pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 7th May 9am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
nigeleccles![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: show detailsnigeleccles: show detailsnigeleccles: show details
infernalmachine![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
: Answer now known, See comment 24 for mathematical explanation of why the result must be NO as of the close of the European markets on Thursday. (market suspended) infernalmachine: If you check the 3 links to stock markets in comment 24 you'll discover that Mibtel and DAX close at 5:45pm CET and CAC40 closes at 6:00pm CET. So this question became settle-able at 6 CET which is 5pm BT or noon Eastern time on Thurs May 7th. nigeleccles: See comment 24 for mathematical explanation of why the result must be NO as of the close of the European markets on Thursday. 
Suspend date: Fri 8th May 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 7th May 1:05pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 7th May 9am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (150)
wyrm
predicted No (H$40 at 69%)Comments (30)
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Related Tags
http://www.hubdub.com/m40029/
I had to laugh when I saw this old question. It starts to make more sense when the first couple of questions are settled. Last year, it settled as Yes -- the scores averaged just under 60.
I would love to see you apply the same math to a question with broader consideration.
good heads up. though, as specified in the settlement details in the questions: "If any index is not active because of holiday etc, then it does not count toward UP tally." (nicely considered already by infernalmachine, thanks!)
I was inspired to extend this idea and scoring system to a question about how well we predict the individual game winners of Round 2 of the NHL playoffs.
http://www.hubdub.com/m40697/How_successfully_will_the_HD_community_pick_the_winners_of_games_of_NHL_playoffs_Round_2
I'll go for the low-hanging fruit.
Good luck to those who dare to tread here...
Tuesday score S = (5/4) * 43 - 25 = 28.75
Two day average is: 20.00
The Swiss must be brilliant!!!!!
I'm just happy it's been filed in Technology!
Tuesday score S = (5/4) * 43 - 25 = 28.75
Wednesday score S = (5/4) * 79 - 25 = 73.75
three day average is: 56.88
(this question would settle "Yes")
But if you look at the now-suspended Thurs question http://www.hubdub.com/m40508/How_many_of_the_following_12_Indices_will_close_UP_on_Thursday_May_7_
in light of the fact that 3 of the European markets were down (CAC40, MibTel and DAX)
CAC40: http://www.euronext.com/trader/summarizedmarket/stocks-2634-EN-FR0003500008.html?selectedMep=1
MibTel: http://www.borsaitaliana.it/borsa/indici/indici-in-continua/dettaglio.html?indexCode=999&lang=en
DAX: http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/EN/index.aspx?pageID=32
then it's clear that Option 5 (10-12) is wrong and the highest of the remaining options is at 18%. But anything less than 20% has a negative score (18% scores -2.5 ).
So even if Friday scores 100, the 5 day total is less than 213.75. But it needs to be 250 or more to settle as Yes. So the outcome is known, exactly as johnnyboy says.
it lead me to put in on the - now know - wrong option of this question.
argh
http://www.hubdub.com/m34088/How_many_Hubdubbers_will_have_more_than_H_500000__on_May_15th
Thanks for this one.
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