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Will anyone be charged with a crime the intent of which was to affect a hubdub outcome?

Current forecast: 8% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 8% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

A story would have to be reported that someone attempted or committed a crime, and upon arrest, or in defense in court, stated that they wanted to change the odds or cause a specific outcome of a hubdub.com question. In other words, someone commits a crime because they confuse Hubdub money with real money, or because their sense of self-worth moronically hinges upon their Hubdub rankings.
 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
8%
No
92%
Activity: H$765
Question suspends in 31 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. For this to be settled in the affirmative, Hubdub (or www.hubdub.com) would have to be mentioned as a motivating factor in the crime.

Suspend date: Mon 13th Apr 2009 8:59am PDT (31 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Sun 13th Apr 2:14am PDT by gradgrind
Edited Tue 15th Apr 10:57am PDT by diana
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. For this to be settled in the affirmative, Hubdub (or www.hubdub.com) would have to be mentioned as a motivating factor in the crime.... read all

 

Predictions (12)

12 predictions

20 weeks ago
flipflop predicted Yes (H$100 at 8%)
20 weeks ago
nccntrygrl01 predicted No (H$100 at 93%)
20 weeks ago
drunkenmonkey predicted Yes (H$50 at 7%)
20 weeks ago
gradgrind predicted Yes (H$50 at 7%)
20 weeks ago
galahaut predicted No (H$1 at 93%)
more

Comments (13)

  1 jbolli
I'm all in on YES.
posted 20 weeks ago
  2 jbolli
And it just might be me........
posted 20 weeks ago
  3 jbolli
So if someone goes all in on this question, and ironically, this is THE QUESTION they are trying to influence....

posted 20 weeks ago
  4 gradgrind
Well, I suppose in the immortal words of Buck Murdock, "Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes."
posted 20 weeks ago
great question! :D
posted 20 weeks ago
  6 randburg
Yes, great question...lol..Just look at the total activity...Obviously generated lots of interest...
posted 20 weeks ago
lol
posted 20 weeks ago
  8 cognos[Power User]
look out for them elevators!
posted 20 weeks ago
  9 cognos[Power User]
my bad. :0
only kidding!!!
I'm not goint anywhere near Scotland soon. ...
posted 20 weeks ago
  10 destry[Admin]
Wouldn't it be more fun if a celebrity was using the site and influenced the markets by thier actions. Just look at how much money Brittany could have made on Hubdub.
I think the starting odds were little out of whack, seriously there is a 5% chance it was going to happen? I can tell you this though, that if i get charged with any crimes I am going to use the Hubdub defense.
posted 20 weeks ago
  11 gradgrind
I set it at 5% because I think people are idiots, and if this site becomes successful, I figure there is a small, but measurable chance, that this would come to pass. Can you even set odds at lower than 5%? Unless you are saying the odds should have been better that it would happen?
posted 20 weeks ago
  12 markov
The question background appears to rule out a crime committed by a Hubdub admin motivated by the desire to increase site exposure in the media. True?
posted 20 weeks ago
  13 kruijs[Power User]
markov, i agree, that's a good question
posted 20 weeks ago

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