A Summary of the Hubdub Rules

At Hubdub we don't really like rules, but we thought we needed a few to keep things fair and fun. Here are the top 10 Hubdub Rules - for the full list, click our Help link:

1. Hubdub will void all predictions made after the outcome of a question becomes public knowledge (sorry no prizes for predicting what is already known).

2. As far as possible, times on the website are shown in your timezone for your convenience. The 'core' timezone for the website however is PST (8 hours behind GMT, i.e. 12 noon PST is 8pm GMT, daylight savings are not observed). If the question is on a prediction that happens in a particular locale it will be assumed that it refers to local time, unless otherwise specified. E.g. "Will it rain in Manchester, UK on Feb 5th?" would be resolved using local time (GMT/BST). Best practise is for question creators to state the time zone in which the prediction occurs.

3. Unless otherwise specified, the relevant time period to which the question refers begins from the date of creation of the question. E.g. If the question "How many Hurricanes will make landfall in Texas" was created in August 2008, it would not count any Hurricanes that had made landfall in Texas earlier in the year.

4. Questions should be about news stories that the creator expects a significant number of other users are interested in. All non-Hubdub questions should be objectively settleable from public news sources. Therefore private questions which are only of interest to a small group of people. E.g. date of childbirth for a non-public figure, are not allowed.

5. Where possible we like to settle questions early. If something is 99.9% certain then we will tend to settle it. Every one in a 1,000 times we get it wrong we will also pay-out on the correct outcome. In questions on news where initial reports are often inaccurate, questions will generally be suspended on initial reports however they will not be settled until there is a stronger consensus among news sources. If the consensus results in the question remaining open then it will be unsuspended.

6. At the suspend date, where it's reasonable to assume that the non-reporting of an event can be taken as it not having happened, the question will be settled as no. E.g. If at the suspend date, a search for "Will there be a habitable moon base established by the end of 2008?" yields no news, it will be settled as 'no'.

7. Where the meaning of a question is in dispute, the most common sense meaning will be taken, as judged by Hubdub admin. In identifying the common sense meaning Hubdub admin may draw on the final resolution of previously disputed questions. Based on the consensus reached by users, Hubdub will make a final decision on settlement.
Should there be no clear consensus on the outcome, Hubdub may void the question. If the question has already been settled, then voiding will result in the stakes on losing predictions being returned to users. However winning predictions will retain their winnings.

8. Hubdub may void a question if:
• It's a duplicate
• It's poorly worded, vague or ambiguous
• It's impossible to settle objectively
• The initial likelihood values are not accurate
• It does not have a wide following
• A change of circumstances has occurred

9. If an event is cancelled or abandoned and the outcome is not clear, the question will be voided and all stakes returned to users. Any official changes to the outcome of a question after that question has been settled may result in us re-settling in favor of that outcome (with winnings on the previous winning outcome being retained).

10. Hubdub may unilaterally amend created questions, e.g. to correct typos, settlement information and outcome ranges however we will not amend the meaning of a question that has already had predictions placed on it.