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Activity - what does it mean? Can the amount 'at play' also be shown?
I like the high activity questions - on the theory that the prices should be 'fairer' (I also like 'new' questions which may have the odds poorly set).
I have noticed however that 'activity' increases not only when I add a bet, but also when I 'cash in' a bet.
This seems a bit odd - logical in one way - it is activity, yes, but it is a withdrawal of H$ from a market.
Now I don't want to enquire too much into the 'secret sauce' - the way Hubdub allows bets to clear instantly (without a counterparty) by judging how much each bet affects the odds (tho I suspect this could be guessed at or worked out) - but I am curious. It seems that - at any one time - you can bet, cash in, bet again, and unless someone is also betting in that period you will find that it is exactly the same result...
It seems to me therefore that you could have a facility to consolidate multiple bets or split single bets, which might also be useful...
Anyway, my main point is that it would be useful to know the actual volume of bets (total and/or by outcome), tho I imagine it might reveal more about the 'secret sauce' than the site wants revealed...
I have noticed however that 'activity' increases not only when I add a bet, but also when I 'cash in' a bet.
This seems a bit odd - logical in one way - it is activity, yes, but it is a withdrawal of H$ from a market.
Now I don't want to enquire too much into the 'secret sauce' - the way Hubdub allows bets to clear instantly (without a counterparty) by judging how much each bet affects the odds (tho I suspect this could be guessed at or worked out) - but I am curious. It seems that - at any one time - you can bet, cash in, bet again, and unless someone is also betting in that period you will find that it is exactly the same result...
It seems to me therefore that you could have a facility to consolidate multiple bets or split single bets, which might also be useful...
Anyway, my main point is that it would be useful to know the actual volume of bets (total and/or by outcome), tho I imagine it might reveal more about the 'secret sauce' than the site wants revealed...
I doubt there is anything secret. Possibly because submitted and cancelled bets are activity like you say.
Sometimes I cash my bets and like you say for whatever reason I've changed my mind and if no other bets have been placed then you get back exactly what you put in.
However, if you place a bet and someone else places a bet then your cash in value will not equal your original bet. How should it be reported in such a case, it's not so easy. I guess for this reason it's just left in the activity amount.
Sometimes I cash my bets and like you say for whatever reason I've changed my mind and if no other bets have been placed then you get back exactly what you put in.
However, if you place a bet and someone else places a bet then your cash in value will not equal your original bet. How should it be reported in such a case, it's not so easy. I guess for this reason it's just left in the activity amount.
I would like to see the a) bets priced at purchase minus cashed in bets (with purchase price) = invested HD$
b) current value of all remaining bets (cash ins not counting) = market value
c) and some nice Nobel-worthy formulas to win always ;-)
b) current value of all remaining bets (cash ins not counting) = market value
c) and some nice Nobel-worthy formulas to win always ;-)
Any more thoughts on this? I still think that 'market values' give an exaggerated idea of our (collective and individual) success...
As for the 'secret sauce' - well, I'd sure like to know - or be able to figure out, lol - the effect a bet's size has on the percentage move...
As for the 'secret sauce' - well, I'd sure like to know - or be able to figure out, lol - the effect a bet's size has on the percentage move...
Mmmm. secret sauce.. Now I'm hungry!
If I remember right there was a time when withdrawing h$ moved the activity down and we ended up with a lot of markets which had negative activity levels. In the end it does kind of make sense for it to be a sign of how much h$ has been traded in a market, whether its in or out. It would be interesting to have another statistic which just said how much h$ was currently invested in any given market, but I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon :)
If I remember right there was a time when withdrawing h$ moved the activity down and we ended up with a lot of markets which had negative activity levels. In the end it does kind of make sense for it to be a sign of how much h$ has been traded in a market, whether its in or out. It would be interesting to have another statistic which just said how much h$ was currently invested in any given market, but I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon :)



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