Natural disasters lottery

I'd like to do an ongoing 'which is next' question, using say earthquakes, volcanoes, tidal waves and hurricanes. I'd like to set the bar reasonably low so that we got a good turnover and also so that it wasn't viewed as some form of informal death pool. If I was going with reasonably similar odds, what do people think about say a 1m tidal wave, a category 5(?) hurricane, a 7.0 Earthquake and a volcanic eruption that requires the relocation of residents. I'm guessing the odds might move around a bit from time to time with hurricane season etc.

Thoughts? Assistance?? Odds??

i'm guessing that would fall under world or science cat. try contacting the admin, tisha science, jim world, and get help with the odds. as long as you don't mention/say will it kill anybody i don't see why there would be a problem. goodluck.

I think that kind of question would be fine - I'd make a (barely) educated guess for hurricane/earthquake each at 30 and then tidal wave/volcanic eruption at 20 each re: starting odds.

There's a possibility that a 1m tidal wave won't even make the MSM, so you might want to set the bar higher there and lower on the hurricane (say cat 3 or 4). Earthquakes of 7.0 are nearly monthly, but 7.5 are much more rare. Volcanoes are a bit trickier. Perhaps you could change it to next reported disaster to impact more than 10,000 people rather than trying to peg thresholds that are reasonably equal.