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Odds (Working out the likelihood)
mattbest
I created a question the other day and it was recently commented that the odds were deemed unfair and it may well be voided. I don't actually know how to work the difference in likelihood of a questions!? Any help..
The question was http://www.hubdub.com/m47709/Who_will_win_the_World_Rally_Championship_2009 and as pointed the drivers already have different degrees of points and so in theory should be given different odds but like I said no idea how to work that out..
The question was http://www.hubdub.com/m47709/Who_will_win_the_World_Rally_Championship_2009 and as pointed the drivers already have different degrees of points and so in theory should be given different odds but like I said no idea how to work that out..
dieseldog
theres serval differnt sites that give odds on sporting events. i don't know if they include car races. you can contact the sports admin, either by flagging the question or emailing him. mark@hubdub.com he can help you with which sites to use. he will also help you with any other questions you might have. goodluck.
hfl13
With only 4 races left = max 40 points there are only 7 drivers left that at least theretically could become champion. With the standings:
1. M. HIRVONEN 58
2. S. LOEB 57
3. D. SORDO 39
4. H. SOLBERG 27
5. J-M LATVALA 25
6. P. SOLBERG 25
7. M. WILSON 19
My Solution would be Hirvonen 44% Loeb 43% Sordo 10% All others 3%.
The other drivers at positions 8+ have zero chance without the frontrunners losing points (penalty) but with my solution they would be included in others.
You won´t need professional betting sites. At sports events it is useful to use the sports statistics to value the alternatives. 10% for drivers in position 8 and 9 are way to high because their only chance is that the Top2 has heavy accidents with suspension and points penalty.
1. M. HIRVONEN 58
2. S. LOEB 57
3. D. SORDO 39
4. H. SOLBERG 27
5. J-M LATVALA 25
6. P. SOLBERG 25
7. M. WILSON 19
My Solution would be Hirvonen 44% Loeb 43% Sordo 10% All others 3%.
The other drivers at positions 8+ have zero chance without the frontrunners losing points (penalty) but with my solution they would be included in others.
You won´t need professional betting sites. At sports events it is useful to use the sports statistics to value the alternatives. 10% for drivers in position 8 and 9 are way to high because their only chance is that the Top2 has heavy accidents with suspension and points penalty.
tisha![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
These are good responses guys. If you get stuck after checking out pro sites and statistics, the best thing to do is to flick an email to the category editor and ask them what they think about the odds and you can work it out together.
mungo10If I were to create the following question : "Will this question be voided?"
and set this initial odds 99/01 in favor, would the question be voided, thereby making the initial odds fairly accurate?
01/99? 50/50 ? 25/75 ? etc. Are any initial odds illegitimate?
Would this question be voided regardless of the odds because of its odd nature?
and set this initial odds 99/01 in favor, would the question be voided, thereby making the initial odds fairly accurate?
01/99? 50/50 ? 25/75 ? etc. Are any initial odds illegitimate?
Would this question be voided regardless of the odds because of its odd nature?
interesting question. the problem i see is..after you posted it (no matter what the odds) it could be gamed. lets say you had it to run for 2 weeks. you know somebody is gonna flag it. they decide not to void it, then everybody knows the answer. so i would say the odds of it getting voided are 99.99999999%
kruijs![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
its quite easy to answer:
"Self-referential questions that cannot be settled to all outcomes (e.g. "Will this question be voided?") are also not allowed and will be voided."
http://www.hubdub.com/public/rules#hubdub
"Self-referential questions that cannot be settled to all outcomes (e.g. "Will this question be voided?") are also not allowed and will be voided."
http://www.hubdub.com/public/rules#hubdub
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