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Odds - "My predictions" v The question page
ianochaye
I have noticed a couple of times that there instances where I bet at (say) 90% and within hours (a) the odds on the question page have moved to (say) 92% but (b) my bet is shown in "all my predictions" as being worth 78%
I know it all gets sorted out when the prediction is settled but why does it happen? It does make it rather difficult to trade back out of the prediction if I wish so to do
I know it all gets sorted out when the prediction is settled but why does it happen? It does make it rather difficult to trade back out of the prediction if I wish so to do
notablenotices![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
@ianochaye:
I don't know the answer to your question, but I do have one guess. I know that some of the statistics seem to be updated at various intervals, (such as perhaps hourly) so one explanation may be that the 78% figure came from the last time that value was calculated.
You are right though about it all working out correctly at settlement time. I have noticed the same thing.
I don't know the answer to your question, but I do have one guess. I know that some of the statistics seem to be updated at various intervals, (such as perhaps hourly) so one explanation may be that the 78% figure came from the last time that value was calculated.
You are right though about it all working out correctly at settlement time. I have noticed the same thing.
mungo10
I think I see the same thing and it's utterly confusing since it's for the same question.
Example:
18th September 2009 (Cloudy .../Jenniferīs Body) Mon 14th Sep 2:54pm EDT | 100 at 6.02% | 1,660 | 622 at 37.47%
18th September 2009 (Cloudy .../Jenniferīs Body) last Saturday 9:12pm EDT | 1,000 at 18.93% | 5,284 | 1,574 at 29.80%
18th September 2009 (Cloudy .../Jenniferīs Body) Yesterday 2:57pm EDT | 112 at 29.83% | 376 |152 at 40.50%
It's the last column that is confusing. Why are there simultaneously different current percentages for the same question ?
It's fine if you maintain the position until the question is settled. However, it's troublesome if you're trying to cash out of a position.
Example:
18th September 2009 (Cloudy .../Jenniferīs Body) Mon 14th Sep 2:54pm EDT | 100 at 6.02% | 1,660 | 622 at 37.47%
18th September 2009 (Cloudy .../Jenniferīs Body) last Saturday 9:12pm EDT | 1,000 at 18.93% | 5,284 | 1,574 at 29.80%
18th September 2009 (Cloudy .../Jenniferīs Body) Yesterday 2:57pm EDT | 112 at 29.83% | 376 |152 at 40.50%
It's the last column that is confusing. Why are there simultaneously different current percentages for the same question ?
It's fine if you maintain the position until the question is settled. However, it's troublesome if you're trying to cash out of a position.
fingers_of_fury
The worth of your prediction (H$ at xx%) is the average between the current percentage and the percentage AFTER/IF you cash out. By cashing out you would be, in effect, saying that you believe the odds are too high. After cashing out, the percentage will fall to some percentage below the xx% in H$ at xx%.
It's the reverse of FAQ #4 from the "How Does the Market Work?" section:
4. What is 'Your Price' and why is it different depending on how much money I stake?' Your Price' is the level at which you make your prediction.
If an outcome currently has a 42% chance of occurring and you predict that it will occur, you are predicting that the chance of the outcome occurring is greater than 42%. The impact of you making your prediction will be that the current forecast will move slightly. If you risk a lot in making your prediction then the forecast will move a lot.
Your Price is approximately the average between the current user forecast for that outcome, and the new forecast once you have made your prediction.
http://www.hubdub.com/public/help
For example, here's two of my current predictions on this market - Will Slumdog' Child Star be adopted since Father Tries to Sell her?
http://www.hubdub.com/m39311/Will_Slumdog_Child_Star_be_adopted_since_Father_Tries_to_Sell_her
YES is currently trading at 39%, NO at 61%
I have two predictions on this market:
NO - H$10,000 at 45.43% on Sun 13th Sep 11:54am MST
Currently worth - H$10,365 at 47.08%
NO - H$20 at 58.98% on Sun 13th Sep 11:55am MST
Currently worth - H$21 at 60.58%
If I cash out the H$10,000 wager I would receive H$10,365 and the NO percentage would drop to somewhere between the current 61% and the 47.08% value of my wager. On the other hand, if I cash out the H$20, the market would fall to somewhere between 61% and 60.58% value of my wager and with rounding off it would still be trading around 61% and no one would notice/care that I cashed out, but if I cash out that H$10,000 wager the NO percent would fall to somewhere in the low 50s percentile - BIG difference!
My explanation might be off a little bit one way or the other, I can't remember if the percentage falls to below or above the 'currently worth' percentage, but I think my explanation is accurate enough to make sense of the difference between the current 'trading price' and the 'currently worth' percentage.
P.S. - for those curious why I would wager H$20 after H$10,000 it's because right after the H$10,000 I cashed out my earlier smaller predictions which dropped the value of my H$10k a little bit, so I dropped another H$20 to track market movement.
It's the reverse of FAQ #4 from the "How Does the Market Work?" section:
4. What is 'Your Price' and why is it different depending on how much money I stake?' Your Price' is the level at which you make your prediction.
If an outcome currently has a 42% chance of occurring and you predict that it will occur, you are predicting that the chance of the outcome occurring is greater than 42%. The impact of you making your prediction will be that the current forecast will move slightly. If you risk a lot in making your prediction then the forecast will move a lot.
Your Price is approximately the average between the current user forecast for that outcome, and the new forecast once you have made your prediction.
http://www.hubdub.com/public/help
For example, here's two of my current predictions on this market - Will Slumdog' Child Star be adopted since Father Tries to Sell her?
http://www.hubdub.com/m39311/Will_Slumdog_Child_Star_be_adopted_since_Father_Tries_to_Sell_her
YES is currently trading at 39%, NO at 61%
I have two predictions on this market:
NO - H$10,000 at 45.43% on Sun 13th Sep 11:54am MST
Currently worth - H$10,365 at 47.08%
NO - H$20 at 58.98% on Sun 13th Sep 11:55am MST
Currently worth - H$21 at 60.58%
If I cash out the H$10,000 wager I would receive H$10,365 and the NO percentage would drop to somewhere between the current 61% and the 47.08% value of my wager. On the other hand, if I cash out the H$20, the market would fall to somewhere between 61% and 60.58% value of my wager and with rounding off it would still be trading around 61% and no one would notice/care that I cashed out, but if I cash out that H$10,000 wager the NO percent would fall to somewhere in the low 50s percentile - BIG difference!
My explanation might be off a little bit one way or the other, I can't remember if the percentage falls to below or above the 'currently worth' percentage, but I think my explanation is accurate enough to make sense of the difference between the current 'trading price' and the 'currently worth' percentage.
P.S. - for those curious why I would wager H$20 after H$10,000 it's because right after the H$10,000 I cashed out my earlier smaller predictions which dropped the value of my H$10k a little bit, so I dropped another H$20 to track market movement.
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