Odds - "My predictions" v The question page

I have noticed a couple of times that there instances where I bet at (say) 90% and within hours (a) the odds on the question page have moved to (say) 92% but (b) my bet is shown in "all my predictions" as being worth 78%

I know it all gets sorted out when the prediction is settled but why does it happen? It does make it rather difficult to trade back out of the prediction if I wish so to do

@ianochaye:

I don't know the answer to your question, but I do have one guess. I know that some of the statistics seem to be updated at various intervals, (such as perhaps hourly) so one explanation may be that the 78% figure came from the last time that value was calculated.

You are right though about it all working out correctly at settlement time. I have noticed the same thing.

I think I see the same thing and it's utterly confusing since it's for the same question.
Example:
18th September 2009 (Cloudy .../Jennifer´s Body) Mon 14th Sep 2:54pm EDT | 100 at 6.02% | 1,660 | 622 at 37.47%
18th September 2009 (Cloudy .../Jennifer´s Body) last Saturday 9:12pm EDT | 1,000 at 18.93% | 5,284 | 1,574 at 29.80%
18th September 2009 (Cloudy .../Jennifer´s Body) Yesterday 2:57pm EDT | 112 at 29.83% | 376 |152 at 40.50%

It's the last column that is confusing. Why are there simultaneously different current percentages for the same question ?
It's fine if you maintain the position until the question is settled. However, it's troublesome if you're trying to cash out of a position.

The worth of your prediction (H$ at xx%) is the average between the current percentage and the percentage AFTER/IF you cash out. By cashing out you would be, in effect, saying that you believe the odds are too high. After cashing out, the percentage will fall to some percentage below the xx% in H$ at xx%.

It's the reverse of FAQ #4 from the "How Does the Market Work?" section:
4. What is 'Your Price' and why is it different depending on how much money I stake?' Your Price' is the level at which you make your prediction.

If an outcome currently has a 42% chance of occurring and you predict that it will occur, you are predicting that the chance of the outcome occurring is greater than 42%. The impact of you making your prediction will be that the current forecast will move slightly. If you risk a lot in making your prediction then the forecast will move a lot.

Your Price is approximately the average between the current user forecast for that outcome, and the new forecast once you have made your prediction.
http://www.hubdub.com/public/help

For example, here's two of my current predictions on this market - Will Slumdog' Child Star be adopted since Father Tries to Sell her?
http://www.hubdub.com/m39311/Will_Slumdog_Child_Star_be_adopted_since_Father_Tries_to_Sell_her

YES is currently trading at 39%, NO at 61%

I have two predictions on this market:
NO - H$10,000 at 45.43% on Sun 13th Sep 11:54am MST
Currently worth - H$10,365 at 47.08%
NO - H$20 at 58.98% on Sun 13th Sep 11:55am MST
Currently worth - H$21 at 60.58%

If I cash out the H$10,000 wager I would receive H$10,365 and the NO percentage would drop to somewhere between the current 61% and the 47.08% value of my wager. On the other hand, if I cash out the H$20, the market would fall to somewhere between 61% and 60.58% value of my wager and with rounding off it would still be trading around 61% and no one would notice/care that I cashed out, but if I cash out that H$10,000 wager the NO percent would fall to somewhere in the low 50s percentile - BIG difference!

My explanation might be off a little bit one way or the other, I can't remember if the percentage falls to below or above the 'currently worth' percentage, but I think my explanation is accurate enough to make sense of the difference between the current 'trading price' and the 'currently worth' percentage.

P.S. - for those curious why I would wager H$20 after H$10,000 it's because right after the H$10,000 I cashed out my earlier smaller predictions which dropped the value of my H$10k a little bit, so I dropped another H$20 to track market movement.

Or perhaps this comment should be a separate 'feature request' - with reference to FoF's comments @3, how about a different page when placing bets on a(ny) particular outcome, with a slider and a graph (as well as a type in text input and output text boxes) - the idea being that the 'tab' of the slider is set for H$20, with a (say) (how do you spell them logo, log, you know what I mean, those rhythmn scale things?) set of intervals, moving along a left right axis and with the resulting spot on the graph showing the results of making a bet - you know, move it to H$100 and odds go to e.g. 7%, make it all the way to the right at 10k and the odds go to e.g. 12%? Sort of like the net worth over time graph, in fact - and so you could slide up the curve and see how fast it changes...you can easily have up down dotted 'sticky' line points for the usual h$20/50/100 bets and for say 500, 1000, and 5000 as well...

(indeed the very scale could be determined by how much cash the player has at the time, which might be helpful to the very wealthy among us...).

I suggest this would be more transparent and also more flexible as a mechanism...

Indeed (again, clumsily), something like this could allow you to directly control your overall stake on any given prop/market for the option - that is, the amount already wagered could be be totalled and the scale set from H$0 wagered (e.g. on 'Dow will be up today' through the amount you already have wagered (say h$1000) and up to the amount already wagered plus your cash (say h$2000, therefore from 0-3000) - so, move the slider left and you decrease your existing stake (say to h$500), move it right and it goes to e.g. h$1500... so it could be used to cash in as well as bet!

(anyone ever play Spaceward Ho?)

Anyway, I hope that is clear - but does it sound a good idea?