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Forums » Game play » 

Placing big bets

Hi there,
I've got "a lot" of cash on my hands which I'd like to put in only a few bets. But whenever I put $1000+ in one bet, the change in the percentages is big enough to make my bet unviable again.
Am I bound to place a ton of small bets all over the place? Or is there some trick to putting a lot of cash into a single bet? How do fortunate players handle this situation?
Cheers,
Jacob
posted 31 weeks ago
  1 chris[Admin]
The best strategy is usually to limit the number of huge bets you make. Generally a 1000 prediction won't move the market too much, although really sweet prices on unlikely options aren't going to net you the 10000% profits you might make on a small prediction. You will move the market far less though if you place the prediction on an underpriced favourite (ie. 1000 put on at 1% is likely to move the market to 3-4%, whereas 1000 put on at 90% may not noticeably move the market at all) so if you see something you think is a dead cert running at 95% you have the opportunity to make 1000 from placing a 20-25000 prediction.

It's also fair to say at the moment that yes/no questions will move less with large wagers than the multiple choice questions, although that's something may well change
posted 31 weeks ago
  2 hfl13
I try spliting my standard bet 1111 into two (555) or three parts (333)
+: you gain Net worth
+: you can sell parts of an investment
+: you can finetune market percentages if you are rich or you put much of your HD$ in few questions
-: you lose the Net worth at cashing in
-: one bet is easier and faster to cash in (in running DJIA)

@jacob find newer questions - e.g. if there are already 20+ bets on answer A and you raise this from 24 to 30% (or 50% with HD$ 5000) you will always offer the 20+ betters the opportunity to cash in on nice profits.
posted 31 weeks ago
Thank you, especially that last hint is helpful. I am surprised I haven't thought of it myself :)
posted 31 weeks ago
  4 hfl13
"It's also fair to say at the moment that yes/no questions will move less with large wagers than the multiple choice questions, although that's something may well change"

@chris the different kinds are nice with the multiple choice reacting a lot more. Is there a possibility to increase volatility with the number of choices? There are huge bets 200K and more on Oil & DOW that only offer three choices 1."over X" 2. "under Y" or 3. "neither by date". The minority gets wipped out in value and has no chance to deinvest. e.g. question 200K 1. 40% 2. 30% 3. 30 % will show as in question value "90 - 5 - 5" And the last person to bet 10K can move the market all the way.

I would like an increasing volotility with numbers 2 (conservative) 5 (medium) 10 choices (high risk fast moving)
posted 31 weeks ago
  5 hfl13
... with increases for 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 choices - maybe something linear.
posted 31 weeks ago
  6 lola
If you want to place big single bets, a good place to do so is on questions where other people are doing the same thing. For example, questions about if a stock market will open up or down often see people making $2500, $5000 and $10,000 wagers which offers quick increases and quick payoffs for bets of all sizes. It's not unusual for these questions to go from having $0 activity to $40,000+ in just a few hours time. Good Luck and Happy Hubdubbing! :-)
posted 28 weeks ago
  7 lola
Here is a guide for how large bets will influence a new market with $0 activity.

Shares on a $0 market:

Bet Win Gain Resulting market %

$100 = 200 +100 50/50%
$500 = 988 +788 51/49%
$1000 = 1952 +952 52/48%
$2000 = 3818 +1818 55/45%
$2500 = 4722 +2222 56/44%
$3500 = 6478 +2978 58/42%
$5000 = 8997 +3997 61/39%
$6000 = 10609 +4609 63/37%
$7000 = 12175 +5175 65/35%
$7500 = 12942 +5442 66/34%
$8000 = 13699 +5699 66/35%
$9000 = 15185 +6185 68/32%
$10000 = 16636 +6636 70/30%
posted 27 weeks ago
  8 hfl13
Thanks lola ! This is the rate for a yes/no - market ?
posted 27 weeks ago
  9 lola
That's correct hfl13, the above mentioned percentage data applies only to a two outcome (yes/no) market.
posted 27 weeks ago

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