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Possible Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State picks?
I'm interested in creating a couple of questions on who McCain/Obama would pick as Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State if elected, but need some suggestions on likely candidates. Is there anything resembling a shortlist for such a question, or are there just too many potentially out-of-the-blue candidates for such a question to be manageable?
Off-hand the only possibilities I can think of for Secretary of Defense are either keeping Gates, or McCain picking Lieberman or Fred Smith. One possible Obama pick for Secretary of State I can think of would be Bill Richardson.
This is partially in response to the questions on whether McCain or Obama would pick Petraeus as SoD, which were voided due to the illegality of appointing current/recent military officers to the position:
http://www.hubdub.com/m17944/If_John_McCain_is_elected_president_will_David_Petraeus_be_made_Secretary_of_Defense
http://www.hubdub.com/m18123/If_Barack_Obama_is_elected_president_will_David_Petraeus_be_made_Secretary_of_Defense
Off-hand the only possibilities I can think of for Secretary of Defense are either keeping Gates, or McCain picking Lieberman or Fred Smith. One possible Obama pick for Secretary of State I can think of would be Bill Richardson.
This is partially in response to the questions on whether McCain or Obama would pick Petraeus as SoD, which were voided due to the illegality of appointing current/recent military officers to the position:
http://www.hubdub.com/m17944/If_John_McCain_is_elected_president_will_David_Petraeus_be_made_Secretary_of_Defense
http://www.hubdub.com/m18123/If_Barack_Obama_is_elected_president_will_David_Petraeus_be_made_Secretary_of_Defense
Some options for Obama's Secretary of State:
John Kerry, Joe Biden (article is slightly dated ;), Chris Dodd (doubtful after Fannie/Freddie mess): http://www.newsweek.com/id/141512
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Anthony Lake, Susan Rice, Richard Danzig, Anthony Zinni, Greg Craig, Samantha Power, Sarah Sewall: http://www.washingtonian.com/blogarticles/people/capitalcomment/7641.html
State: Bill Richardson, Richard Lugar, Greg Craig, John Kerry, Sam Nunn: http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=4462
Defense (from above article): Chuck Hagel (Republican, but Iraq War opponent), Robert Gates, Jack Reed, Richard Danzig
Other SoD options I've seen are Wesley Clark and Hillary Clinton
John Kerry, Joe Biden (article is slightly dated ;), Chris Dodd (doubtful after Fannie/Freddie mess): http://www.newsweek.com/id/141512
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Anthony Lake, Susan Rice, Richard Danzig, Anthony Zinni, Greg Craig, Samantha Power, Sarah Sewall: http://www.washingtonian.com/blogarticles/people/capitalcomment/7641.html
State: Bill Richardson, Richard Lugar, Greg Craig, John Kerry, Sam Nunn: http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=4462
Defense (from above article): Chuck Hagel (Republican, but Iraq War opponent), Robert Gates, Jack Reed, Richard Danzig
Other SoD options I've seen are Wesley Clark and Hillary Clinton
Plenty more options from some Daily Kos polls in March:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/1/41051/20179/636/506865 (Secretary of Defense)
Rep. Neil Abercrombie (HI) - member of the House Armed Services Committee, member of the Out of Iraq Caucus, voted against Iraq War resolution
Louis Caldera - West Point graduate, fmr. Sec. of the Army
Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY) - member of the Senate Armed Services Committee
Richard Danzig - fmr. Sec. of the Navy
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) - Vietnam War Veteran, member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Lawrence Korb - fmr. Asst. Sec. of Defense, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress
Sen. Carl Levin (MI) - Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, voted against Iraq War resolution
fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA) - fmr. Chairman of the Senate Armed Service Committee
Gen. Colin Powell - fmr. National Security Advisor, fmr. Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, fmr. Sec. of State
Sen. Jack Reed (RI) - West Point graduate, member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, voted against Iraq War resolution
fmr. Sen. Chuck Robb (VA) - fmr. member of the Senate Armed Services, Foreign Relations, and Intelligence Committees, fmr. Chair of the Iraq Intelligence Committee
Rep. Loretta Sanchez (CA) - member of the House Armed Services and Homeland Security Committees, voted against Iraq War resolution
Sarah Sewall - fmr. first Deputy Asst. Sec. for Peacekeeping, Dir. of the Carr Center (Harvard), Obama advisor
Sen. Jim Webb (VA) - fmr. Sec. of the Navy, member of the Senate Armed Services, Foreign Relations and Veterans Affairs Committees
Togo West - fmr. Sec. of the Army, fmr. Sec. of Veterans Affairs
(Anthony Zinni and Wesley Clark left off due to the "must be retired from military for 10 years" law)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/27/95534/5353/131/504295 (Secretary of State)
Sen. Joe Biden (DE), Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Sen. Barbara Boxer (CA), member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark (AK), former Supreme Allied Commander Europe of Nato
Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY)
fmr. Sen. William Cohen (R-ME), former Sec. of Defense
Sen. Chris Dodd (CT), member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Amb. Richard Holbrooke, former Amb. to the UN
Sen. John Kerry (MA), member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Anthony Lake, former National Security Advisor
Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA)
Susan Rice, fmr. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
Amb. David Scheffer, fmr. Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes Issues
Strobe Talbott, fmr. Deputy Secretary of State
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/1/41051/20179/636/506865 (Secretary of Defense)
Rep. Neil Abercrombie (HI) - member of the House Armed Services Committee, member of the Out of Iraq Caucus, voted against Iraq War resolution
Louis Caldera - West Point graduate, fmr. Sec. of the Army
Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY) - member of the Senate Armed Services Committee
Richard Danzig - fmr. Sec. of the Navy
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) - Vietnam War Veteran, member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Lawrence Korb - fmr. Asst. Sec. of Defense, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress
Sen. Carl Levin (MI) - Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, voted against Iraq War resolution
fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA) - fmr. Chairman of the Senate Armed Service Committee
Gen. Colin Powell - fmr. National Security Advisor, fmr. Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, fmr. Sec. of State
Sen. Jack Reed (RI) - West Point graduate, member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, voted against Iraq War resolution
fmr. Sen. Chuck Robb (VA) - fmr. member of the Senate Armed Services, Foreign Relations, and Intelligence Committees, fmr. Chair of the Iraq Intelligence Committee
Rep. Loretta Sanchez (CA) - member of the House Armed Services and Homeland Security Committees, voted against Iraq War resolution
Sarah Sewall - fmr. first Deputy Asst. Sec. for Peacekeeping, Dir. of the Carr Center (Harvard), Obama advisor
Sen. Jim Webb (VA) - fmr. Sec. of the Navy, member of the Senate Armed Services, Foreign Relations and Veterans Affairs Committees
Togo West - fmr. Sec. of the Army, fmr. Sec. of Veterans Affairs
(Anthony Zinni and Wesley Clark left off due to the "must be retired from military for 10 years" law)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/27/95534/5353/131/504295 (Secretary of State)
Sen. Joe Biden (DE), Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Sen. Barbara Boxer (CA), member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark (AK), former Supreme Allied Commander Europe of Nato
Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY)
fmr. Sen. William Cohen (R-ME), former Sec. of Defense
Sen. Chris Dodd (CT), member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Amb. Richard Holbrooke, former Amb. to the UN
Sen. John Kerry (MA), member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Anthony Lake, former National Security Advisor
Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA)
Susan Rice, fmr. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
Amb. David Scheffer, fmr. Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes Issues
Strobe Talbott, fmr. Deputy Secretary of State
I'd say Jim Webb has to be considered 'top tier' for the post.
He's got that "Tom Clancy / Jack Ryan" feel to him. ;)
He's got that "Tom Clancy / Jack Ryan" feel to him. ;)
Yeah, that Daily Kos post was the best one I saw, although I have no idea how you could go about setting reasonable odds for that. A couple other names to throw in to the ring: Tony McPeak and Wesley Clark (he retired 8 years ago, but they fudged 5 to 10 so I think they could accept him if they wanted to). Hillary odds should be at 0.01 if you include her. She would be much better placed elsewhere.
Hm... so I just realized that there's (quite understandably) a limit of 10 possible choices. Any suggestions on which 9 (+1 catch-all) I should have as the options for Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State for Obama/McCain?
Updated version of one of the above links, with predictions for Obama's entire cabinet: http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=2402
Oops, even more recent version, from Sep. 30. ;)
http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=4462
http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=4462



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