Prediction Ranking

Dear staff,

I played around on HubDub for a few days and I noticed that sometimes even the predictions made by more than 20 predictors can go wrong.

I know that the future is not written but what do you think about giving more "weight" to the forecasts of people who have a proven trail of successful predictions on a specific domain/section (eg. finance or sport)?

What I mean is that if anyone gets all his sports related predictions right his prediction should have more influence on the calculated probability of the event, don't you agree?

a little sidenote: also money staked by just registered (eg. 0-5 predictions / less than 3 days on the site) accounts should not be able to influence the probability of the event, in order to counter any purposeful distortion,don't you agree?..

ps. i'm a part time business developer & project manager, and an experienced interaction designer/grounded concepts creator, if you may happen to need one

Here's my thoughts...BTW, good topic for discussion

"Experts" not only make larger wagers because of their knowledge of the markets, but also because they 'are' experts they probably have more funds to wager in these markets. The old rich getting richer situation.

Also, so lesser 'experts' may not be playing the likelihood of the outcomes as much as taking some chances on lower odds that might provide a substantial return if the unlikely does occur.

As to predictions from newer users carrying less weight, that is already somewhat the case because they have fewer dollars to play wager. A newbie might be taking a chance with a H$20-100 wager while a more experience player could easily put down H$3-4-500 or more on the same question. That way, the newbie does has less influence and the more experienced player has more effect on the movement of the odds.

Thanks for the appreciation and for your observations.

In my idea anyway, I was not seeing experts as the ones with more money, not a reliable factor for evaluation because of the possible biases you just pointed out. My concept would be just to give more weight in a specific area (eg. sports) to people who actually got many predictions right in that specific domain so that actually reliable predictions emerge, and the average calculation doesn't get polluted by the bigger quantity of quasi-random or speculative predictions.

In regards to your second point anyway it would be interesting to know if the behavior of richer players is actually speculative as defined it and is not simply based on the quickly available options, considering that no real money is actually at stake. However I presume so.