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Forums » Game play » 

Voiding Predictions

On the following market http://www.hubdub.com/m26361/Will_the_Czech_Parliament_approve_the_Treaty_of_Lisbon_in_February, after the settlement date was reached, it was decided that predictions made after February 10th are voided while the outcome of the market was not 100% certain at that time.
I feel like this was not fully explained and supported by information.
Could someone please check this? Thank you.
posted 37 weeks ago
  1 dieseldog
bgrigore - use the "contact us" link at the bottom of the page. it will send and email to the HD big chiefs.
posted 37 weeks ago
  2 bgrigore
@dieseldog - I am aware of this but it would have driven me outside the game. I feel like the forums are part of the game and when no answer was given on the market thread they remain the obvious public possibility left to draw attention on the problem.
Also maybe some clear rules would emerge for voiding predictions.
posted 37 weeks ago
  3 dieseldog
bgrigore - i agree bringing problems to the public is the best way. that way we all know what was said. you have handle this in a very polite way. i have no money in the market and don't know enough about it to really make a comment. if things was done the way you say i agree it was handled wrong. goodluck.
posted 37 weeks ago
  4 bgrigore
After a prediction made is voided how can one verify at what time was it made?
When predictions are voided they totally disapear. I am less interested when they were voided but when they were made.
posted 14 weeks ago
  5 dieseldog
bgrigore - when you make a prediction it shows what time you made it in your predictions. one example from my predictions. the only way i'm aware of to keep a "record" of that is to email your predictions page to yourself. that would be a roayal pain in the butt. if your bets are public they remain under predictions on the question. it only keeps track of days tho. so if your trying to prove what hour you predicted that wouldn't help.

A Wainwright, T Lincecum, or J Jurrjens
last Saturday 2:12am EDT
posted 14 weeks ago
  6 hfl13
Voiding and the interpretation of what confirms the settlement is sometimes difficult. I was voided on that Q too and wondered. Making them public is a good method until Hubdub realizes that there is a problem with a few Qs in settlement.

A better possibility would be putting these in a "in doubt/more info needed" category in the forum and delay the settlement until a solution is found. Possible solutions:
a) two winning interpretations
b) a conclusive end of debate
c) partial solution (eg 2 correct answers - everyone gets 50%)
d) void

This really is difficult for the Cat Eds: there are a)time of an event b)time the news broke and time of suspension. In the best case this kind of Q is a lot of work to determine the outcome.

I beted on already decided Qs before but without knowledge that the Q was already decided. Just yesterday I wanted a settlement on some earth quakes and when they were posted because they happened before the Q was created yesterday but the author hasnīt mentioned them as excluded and the site has delays up to a day. e.g. there should be better solutions for the color of Obamas tie at the last press conference and earth quakes (additional rule "excluded quakes as mentioned by author" or "only after time of Q creation" - the site has up to 1 day delay).

Wrong settlements and what to do in this cases are more frustrating than having some bets voided due to time of event.

Many Qs could be made clearer if they were preapproved by Cat Eds but this method would reduce the number of Qs. Settlment of improved Qs would be easier. A link for settlement should be requiered because there are about 85% of Qs that could be decided by one sourse and most authors knew at least one source. The rest is mayor news source.
posted 14 weeks ago
  7 bgrigore
I know it is difficult to assess prediction cut-off especially with complicated questions and usually don't complain. Many times I avoid betting if the market is not clear.
But this was a simple question
http://www.hubdub.com/m49349/Will_there_be_two_60_or_greater_earthquakes_in_the_same_day_before_Aug_28_2009_
In settling it prediction cut-off seems that was set just after the first 6.0+ earthquake and not 17 hours later before the second 6.0+ earthquake took place.
I am pretty sure my bet was a lot inside that 17 hours frame until the second earhquake but had no means to verify that.
With this question and the one about who will took Massa's seat in Valencia (http://www.hubdub.com/m48421/F1_Who_will_race_in_Massas_seat_in_Valencia), these days I understood more about the frustration of voided predictions.

dieseldog and hfl, thanks for the info and possible solutions, I am just bringing these markets here pro memoria, maybe it is something to learn from them for those who can (as the topic says: Game Play / Voiding Prediction).

All players: Feel free to add your experience with voiding predictions. Thank you.
posted 14 weeks ago

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