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What do you prefer?
I am wanting to create some markets on the margin of victory for the presidential race state by state. I will be focusing on the battleground states first. So I need to know which style of question hubdubbers like most.
Example A - What will be margin of victory popular vote in X
1. >0 - <1%
2. >=1% - <2%
3. >=2% - <3%
4. >=3% - <4%
5. >4%
Example B - What will be margin of victory popular vote in X
1. McCain >0% - <1%
2. McCain >=1% - <2%
3. McCain >=2% - <3%
4. McCain >=3% - <4%
5. McCain >4%
6. Obama >0% - <1%
7. Obama >=1% - <2%
8. Obama >=2% - <3%
9. Obama >=3% - <4%
10. Obama >4%
If you could please select which type of market you like better and give a reason that would be great. Fast feedback would be appreciated.
Example A - What will be margin of victory popular vote in X
1. >0 - <1%
2. >=1% - <2%
3. >=2% - <3%
4. >=3% - <4%
5. >4%
Example B - What will be margin of victory popular vote in X
1. McCain >0% - <1%
2. McCain >=1% - <2%
3. McCain >=2% - <3%
4. McCain >=3% - <4%
5. McCain >4%
6. Obama >0% - <1%
7. Obama >=1% - <2%
8. Obama >=2% - <3%
9. Obama >=3% - <4%
10. Obama >4%
If you could please select which type of market you like better and give a reason that would be great. Fast feedback would be appreciated.
Personally I would prefer B. With more possible outcomes, the lower the starting percentages would be (the bigger the pay out if I predict correctly!) ;)
Generally we've founded it is better to have fewer, bigger buckets. However I think in this example it is important to split out which way the vote swings.



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