anaverageamerican

thanks for that link!
that's freaky, isn't it?

Thank you for the link. This is getting more interesting all the time.

What a mess. I'm stunned that several provinces are investigating this same matter. What a waste of tax dollars. Infuriating really. At least the Canadian HRC has provided some hope with their example. I'm afraid this will not be resolved for years to come.

Good News !
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/06/28/macleans-steyn.html
What a relief. Thank you for enlightening me of this story. It would have gone under the radar for me.

A Google group for hubdub's old fogies...I like that!! The entry qualification is exceedingly simple: anyone who didn't grow up on a computer, and that really does make us old fogies.

I see your viewpoint about comments on certain subjects (like this one) getting spread over several profiles. I have not really thought about that aspect before. I have always liked that the Spitzer discussion fell mostly (and forever) under a Spitzer market. The same with satyaki, etc. It was easy to follow and find again, being under the appropriate market. But for the three of us -- and possibly more -- to follow this conversation will be tricky...And I understand that it would be easier to put something like this on getsatisfaction, to "get it altogether somewhere"...

And yet, my understanding of getsatisfaction is just that: getting satisfaction in a knock down drag out fight, not a friendly discussion (like this one)...So, I see getsatisfaction as an unfriendly court of last resort, a waste of several hours time wading through genuine venting, and an unpleasant experience. I agree that at times it is necessary and a good thing, but I sure don't want to do it everyday.

Wouldn't it be nice if there was a "friendly discussion board", or something like that...? Wouldn't it be great if we could have instant messaging between people on our "friends" list? The "shout" system only works half way...

AAA,

I'm smirking to myself as I read your shout out to me, esp. the parts about the kids, I have four sons, 18, 16, 10 & 1 and except for the baby (as far as I know), all of them are completely comfortable with THIS kind of communication that looks/feels so random and chaotic to me. Perhaps it was intentional to set up communication in this was to cause the site to ripple amongst a larger and larger pool of people to generate agitation/communication and stimulate site growth. I appreciate your thoughts/wagers and feedback.

AAA,

I'm smirking to myself as I read your shout out to me, esp. the parts about the kids, I have four sons, 18, 16, 10 & 1 and except for the baby (as far as I know), all of them are completely comfortable with THIS kind of communication that looks/feels so random and chaotic to me. Perhaps it was intentional to set up communication in this was to cause the site to ripple amongst a larger and larger pool of people to generate agitation/communication and stimulate site growth. I appreciate your thoughts/wagers and feedback.

AAA,

Yep, it was, and you're right, it's easier to stick to comments on a thread, what I find cumbersome is how to engage another user about a specific thread without opening it up to the entire community. Kind of like a party where everyone is using bull horns, know what I mean? I get preturbed sometimes when it seems that our society is always ready to bow down at the alter of political correctness and that race and global warming are played like get out of jail free cards. When I read that a figure of $45,000,000,000,000.00 had been dreamnt up as the 'price' of global warming I just couldn't sit by and not comment on it.

Thanks, this is exactly the kind of dialouge I was trying to encourage when I posted my "gold into the pool" market, I could not agree with you more.

swilson's pic is swilson jr. I believe that pic was taken in the Cayman Islands. He's 8 now and I always thought the pic showed the profoundness of the world "out there".

AAA.
Thanks for keeping me up to speed on HRC. This story of Mr. Steyn came in under the radar for me.
I must admit I often overlook these stories because of their extremely annoying nature.
I do suspect the media has some fault for not drawing more attention to this matter.
I can assure you that Canadians in generally are just as concerned as you and I are.
When the RCMP began to consider implementing the turban as part of the uniform, Canadians were talking about it.
More recently the liberal party on the national level felt we should discuss implementing sharia law as a sort of 'option' for our justice system. Another gentleman went to the supreme court expecting to be exempt of our motorcycle helmet laws.
These two cases didn't go anywhere.

In case you didn't know, Macleans magazine has a blog from the courthouse.

I use the same "secret weapon" mork uses and coincidentally I've been online just than.

I think this may have been a bigger story in B.C, where it is going down.
Very disturbing that it appears the ruling will not represent what is 'just.'
I expect this to go to federal Supreme court.
It will not go unnoticed at the federal level, especially once US political campaigns stop being the headline in our news.
I sense I may be more optimistic on the outcome than you. I pray I'm right.

The Wildlife PSA series is called "Hinterland Who's Who".
I had just posted the reference to it when I went to This link: http://steynian.wordpress.com/ and noticed a link for 'hinterland who's who' RSS feed in the top right hand corner of his webpage.
I was taken aback and thought I had spyware on my computer.
I soon realized it was a crazy coincidence.

Thank you for enlightening me of the plights of Mark Steyn. As a Canadian I found this considerably upsetting. I wonder if complainants like these have researched our laws on ways to be manipulated better than none other. I see our tax dollars being devoured by a bureaucracy intent only on destroying the ability to speak freely, with the livelihood of a talented reporter being left in it's wake. These tax dollars are being robbed from their ability to do any good and being used to feed these smug lawyers whose education was probably not their first major benefit of immigrating to Canada.

I like how Rex Murphy explains it here.
http://www.cbc.ca/national/blog/video/rex_murphy/human_rights_gone_awry.html

Subject matter has caught my attention. I'm going to need a coffee for this.

You just freaked me out.
Not to take away from the subject matter but read comment 5, http://www.hubdub.com/m8624/_200809 of 15 minutes ago.
And then I just saw it top right hand corner of Mark Steyn link you gave.
This is an obscure piece of Canadian trivia rarely mentioned.

I'm glad it's not secret. I'm kind of a noob to the whole internet thing. So much to learn.
Thanks for the links. I will look into that when I have a bit of time to focus and let you know what I think. Sounds very interesting.

I share my secret weapon with you; https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/3362
No, I've never heard of the Mark Steyne guy

My brother lives in the distant MD suburbs of DC, and works in the district, but he hasn't been complaining about the price of gas. SW CT has some of the highest gasoline prices in the country, not only do the oil companies practice a cartel-like policy called "zone pricing", which is basically let's all agree to charge more where average income is higher, but CT has the highest state taxes on gasoline in the US.

OTOH, I'm sure our European friends are laughing about our complaints. I've been hearing that gasoline in Europe is around US$9.00 per gallon =8^(

But I have to admit the commute is great!

Howdy!

I'm so jealous of your commute! Gas is $4 here in the Washington DC area as well. And silly me, I bought an SUV last Christmas. I drool at Volkswagen Beetles.

I haven't been playing here for a while, but I've been watching tons of my longterm bets come in. Win/Loss has me down about $200 after about a month of inactivity. Hmmph!

= )

talking about moving: I've been relocating these weeks, new flat, have been busy all the time - but to do without hubdub? only if forced (because no internet connection established for a few days in the new flat)

see what you think of this
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/hubdub_hall_of_fame

I'm travelling at this time and checking in daily...Not easy to keep up with hubdub when you are on the move...I'm glad you are enjoying a free weekend and hope you make the most of it!

Kind Regards!

Hey Anaverageamerica, great to hear from you, thanks for the recognition about my markets... I try to avoid the randomness of Will the DJIA Open up or down instead going for more creative /interesting ideas, I appreciate you noticing. I keep setting new hurdles for myself in this environment, I'm currently ranked about # 168 even though I only joined on 5/1/08... I haven't checked to see the exact figures, but I'm hoping to have one of the highest number of total/varied markets by the end of the summer.

Yeah ... I have no doubt whatsoever that the objective is to enfranchise the democratic voters of Michigan and Florida, nor do I think that delegates won't be awarded. A 50% penalty has been widely discussed ... it's just that if that is the basis from which negotiations commence (or wind up at), this market settles as "no".

In order for the market to settle as "yes", the "basis" has to be "the existing counted votes from both primaries" -- and that, I don't think, has any chance of success.

Hey! Long time no talk to ... but then, I was offline for over a month so ... (maybe I ought revisit that ;-)

I see you placed 1K on "yes" for the Hillary delegate debacle ... what do you know that I don't ;-)

And Fox news over MSNBC ... interesting... MSNBC had a strong HD lead up until very recently... wonder what's up with that.

Hope you are doing well!

-Roger'

I think it's incredible that you have exactly half a kid....What are the odds?

yeah, attacking all dog avatars was his original intention. but tham he saw jenniandboys' and he abandoned that plan rather. :)

lol, yeah that cat is a real thread (no not really - he actually hides as soon as someone gets close to our flat) ... so ... uhm, yes, he's yawning :)

Yeah, I noticed your comment on someone else's page that you had a lot of 'dog friends'. Figured you needed another! (Actually I kinda count as two)

Welcome AAA. You guys are all hot this quarter. I got hit big at the start of the quarter and just starting to recover or take another big hit in the next couple of weeks. Let's roll the dice. good thing this is only play money.

Thanks for the compliment on my avatar. Unfortunately, not my dog though.
He is a show dog named Rio, owned by a pet groomer named Christine Johnson , who won 2nd place in a national groomers contest a few years ago.

Howdy, Triple-A!

= )

Thanks for the shout! Having a blast gettin' booted up, so to speak.

Do you have a shirt I can borrow?

I lost mine on Formula 1 (whatever that is).

classic rock rules!

kruijs,

Thanks for challenging me to this question:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Which_song_will_be_No_1_on_the_Billboard_Hot_100_Issue_April_12th_08_4969/view

I made over H$4k on a H$100 investment. Not to mention I have no idea about any of the artists and songs (I'm into classic rock, which might provide some insight into my age 8^)

btw. thanks for your contribution at getsatisfaction.
i seriously was in a worry the situation would get out of control with all those riots and people freaking around ...
i hope it will calm dawn and normalize this monday, that the strike will be over and everyone goes back to hubdubwork.

AAA is also a very good rating :)



.. and an Automobile Association

Ha! You're an acronym! That's almost as cool as being just a first name!

= )

hey AAA, your nick is just too long. mine is too complicated for most users on the other hand - its often incorrectly spelled :(^

I quit caffeine for about a year....and then I discovered Cherry Coke....

= )

Congrats on making it back to the Top 20 quarterly gain!

I'll be there soon.....

= )

Ditto about the avatar.

That was me, yesterday, coding away, wondering why my changes wouldn't render, only to realize hours later that I was viewing the wrong page!

Me + no sleep + deadlines + caffeine = disaster

= )

I had itmod's gif saved on my computer a few days ago, but thanks (for the compliment also)

You're absolutely right about ltmod's gif - excellent :)

Hey There: an averageamerican (you):

I can't argue with you when you're right! Good point.

Nice work! Guess we should have looked too!

= )

steph asked about the technology platform of hubdub:
The HTTP Response header say:
Server=Apache/2.2.6 (Fedora), X-Powered-By=PHP/5.2.4

Very interesting in the Footer of the page:
<!--<dl>
<dt>Resources</dt>
<dt><a href="#">Widgets</a></dt>
<dt><a href="#">Logos</a></dt>
<dt><a href="#">API</a></dt>
</dl> -->

Yes, it is very nice to be on a leaderboard with your own friends. I agree...

Asynchronous conversation...Whoa, to the Oxford: asynchronous = not synchronous. Alright. Synchronous = Existing or occurring at same time: SIMULTANEOUS! ok.

Yes the shout system is tricky in that you need to refer back to previous discussion or trust your memory. You've got a very interesting point about mall design, and that you tend to read other shouts when you are looking for the relevant one...Very good point.

Here's another one I've spotted: if you look at the email announcing a shout, each shout has a number in consecutive order. If there was a problem on the hubdub system on Monday from 3pm to 4pm pst, the admins only have to go back to the appropriate time stamp and read shouts 12,476 to 12,769 (in asynchronous conversation) to figure out what is going on in the community. If they can follow the asynchornous conversation, they have a whole snapshot of a point in time. This is better than "intelligence". However considering that the content is not keeping up with the technical aspects and the technical potential that we are identifying, I think we could be ahead of their identified potential at this time.

I already found a leader board I like ... friends. And I don't care where I'm positioned on it, it's all about who the competition is! I've been really busy with work lately so most of my investing is responding to friends' challenges and trying to guess things like the daily volatility of the BSE, who will win the Swiss hockey championships, and who will be atop the Quarterly Gains leader board on April 15th. Between work and Hubdub I'm less knowledgeable about the news than ever ... but I'm far more invested in it ... well I guess that's only true in H$.

OH No! You are missing a lot of fun! Having so many leaderboards to choose from all over the place is a barrel of laughs!

If you don't like where you are on one leaderboard, just look at another. You will definitely find a few where you are near the top and a few where we are dusting our asses on the bottom. I discovered that I am (temporarily) number one on the Quarterly Gain - "General" board. I used to be number 6 on "Entertainment" on the old board. NOW, on the new quarterly gains "Entertainment" board, I am number 544 and IN THE RED. But that is not the funniest: Rohan, Historyteacher, and Jersjusttrolling are RIGHT BELOW ME. We are all sitting there IN THE RED! And all this stuff will shift again tomorrow: you're really missing some fun not looking. You should have a "squizz": you will definitely find at least one leaderboard you like.....!

Me: c++, Java, coldfusion, php, visual basic, oracle and sql server. I still have so much more to learn.
Hoe because they would ask for data, and I'd have no choice but to give it to them. Hehe!

Something tells me there's lots of developers on HD. Any thoughts on what's behind HD's curtain?

= )

Your thinking sounds very good to me. hubdub will be more fun, less hassle, and a better experience for your ideas. And I am sure that the admins will be pleased if you take away some of their burden. In turn, that should give them more time to make other worthwhile technical developments to the system.

Have you found yourself yet on ALL 743 LEADERBOARDS? I ran out of fingers and toes, just counting the possibilities...

Hi fellow dev!

I used to refer to myself as a "data hoe". Now I'm just a data addict. I make sure that the applications that I build handle data quality issues on their own.

What do you dev?

I challenge you to pass me on the weekly % gain board!

Since you have contributed to community efforts on other sites, and survived a few "curve balls", you know what is involved and what could happen.

You will never need to question hubdub's motives: it is a BUSINESS "first and foremost". Like youtube and Ebay, a community is the core of their business, but profit through success is going to be the number one objective. While we are participating in the smooth running of a prediction market process, we haven't actually been told about the corporate objective. And the source of profit -- which is going to pay for all of this -- is not visible as yet.

I think you are right that they have been concentrating on smooth advanced technical functions (where they have genuinely good ideas, getting better all the time). They seem to be looking to us for help with content. Or perhaps they did not fully anticipate the complexities of content. I think the way we see it as hubdubbers is that the technical side is moving quickly and smoothly, while the content side is moving too slowly.

I understand from Nigel that new improvements to vetting are due in April, including vetting by "power users". I know that you will be a leader in this area, and again you have my support. I am under the impression (subject to correction) that the editors would prefer to abdicate and let the community do this work for them. I think it is more work than they anticipated and/or can handle and/or really want to be involved in.

Don't lose sight of: so much still depends on the ultimate goal and what life is going to be like after the "beta" phase. Perhaps you know more than I do?

Thanks for your thoughtful reply. You are right: youtube is a forum for the public. Ebay appeared to be the same in the beginning and was really fun for several years. I have been a seller on Ebay since 1999 and was a POWERSELLER for several years. Since then, Ebay has become a classic case of GREED and POLITICS. Today it is almost impossible to recognize the original Ebay. Ebay seller fees are outrageous, paypal and it's costs are a requirement, and Ebay has forced sellers against the wall with flatrate postage, return policies, and now TOOTHLESS FEEDBACK. Ebay systems have become very complicated and hard to keep up with. I'm sure you know all of this.

With your worthy nature and good intentions, I don't want you to "feel taken advantage of" later: when hubdub emerges as a business. Your excellent contributions and community spirit will benefit their profits. We have all contributed this past month with out extensive discussions, dialogue, debate, and the way that those of us who are seriously interested in the future of hubdub are SHAPING THEIR BUSINESS FOR THEM.

As long as you are enjoying this and will not feel absued in the process, I'm sure you will do an excellent job of vetting questions. Go into this with your EYES OPEN. You have my support!

wow! what randburg said. ;)

In as much as hubdub is a genuine COMMUNITY, I agree with you wholeheartedly. I appreciate your opinions and perspective and think you (and a few other hubdubbers) would be excellent choices to assist in vetting questions. Hubdub is starting to look really good TECHNICALLY, but falls short when one analyzes the quality and design of questions. I am confident that you could add a great deal to hubdub.

In as much as hubdub is a community, it is also an INTERNATIONAL community (not just American). While it seems to have attracted more Americans at this time, there are also members that I can identify from Canada, UK, Spain, France, Italy and Germany. I am almost sure that more countries are involved. The Oxford would be more suitable for an international community, although Webster's should be quite satisfactory. A choice of dictionary would be a minor concern.

Although hubdub is functioning fairly well as a community AND has survived pulling itself apart more than once this past month, IT IS PRIMARILY A BUSINESS with owners and investors. Hubdub has eight full time paid staff members and additional investors. It is allied to at least one additional marketing company and is in business to make a profit. When the beta stage is complete, it will be a full scale business operation. Right now, a large sum of money has been invested to get this up and running. Staff, premises, equipment, cost of running an office, cost of investment, etc. There are no adverts on hubdub and you haven't been asked to pay a cent. You are contributing to the setup stage of a multi million corporation in exchange for the privilege of enjoying hubdub without charge.

hubdub and it's allied companie(s) are in prediction marketing and understand far more than we do about what they want to achieve and how they want to achieve it. While we are enjoying hubdub, we are the hamsters on the wheels that keep it going and give them the answers they need. They are learning far more from us than we will ever learn from them, and they are going to get REAL dollars back (not hubdub dollars).

So while we do our bit for the hubdub community, which we all enjoy, perhaps you should approach them for a salaried position? We would all gain from your expertise and you would contribute to a growing BUSINESS (rather than a growing community).

Thanks for bringing up: "poorly structured, ambiguous and contentious questions". I have often wondered how many visitors to the hubdub site have been put off by the poor standard of English visible in the questions. And yet, if they took the time to read our comments, the same visitors would probably be surprised at the degree of mental activity evidenced in the comments (that is not apparent in the questions).

I think the editors have been trying to leave our questions alone, as far as possible. And that is not right. We should be relying on them to understand the workings of a market question better than we do...and sometimes that doesn't seem to be the case. I'm in favor of ALL questions being vetted by an editor for spelling, proper sentence construction, English acceptable to the Oxford dictionary, and foresight into possible problems with predictions that are less than specific. Questions rarely seem to be edited, and then it can take forever (like the April Fools question that was suspended for 24 hours to determine the meaning of "widespread". Ultimately, nothing happened at all and the ambiguity remains). I am sure that -- if they want to -- they can edit questions to tidy them up without changing the essential meaning of a question.

Thanks Friend! Just messing around...

Something FISTINCTIVE going on here:

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_there_be_reports_of_widespread_vote_rigging_in_the_Zimbabwean_election_5040/view#newcomment

Twas' the night before New Quarter
And all through the house
Not a creature was stirring
Not even all those nice Scottish Lads and Lasses in a different timezone who sleep while all the really neat stuff happens on American tv, although they never seem to miss the superbowl or debates LIVE...

I hope that JOLLY OLD SAINT NEW QUARTER is good to you!

Season's Greetings and Best Wishes

To My Friends!

John

Yea! im ahead of you old man (just kidding) WOOF WOOF!

Nahh ... October is too far away.

HD may not be here that long. To turn an Olympics phrase, "Let the Gaming End ... "

And I couldn't create a derivative question ... wouldn't be able to sleep at night!

Whadda think about creating a derivate market on a non-sporting, non-weather ;-) and non-politics question?

I saw <http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_recieve_the_winning_bid_to_host_the_2016_Olympics_4886/view> -- and thought it might be "good", but I dunno.

Of course, arguably, the Olympics is political. :-|

I was impressed that you increased the odds on your latest round!

And yup, that-be-me who left the H$100 on the phantom market ;-) --and I'm also in on the companion derivative.

GREAT new derivative question ... except for one missing thing ...

My avatar -- that you asked about -- is an exceptional art piece, an Egyptian Prince's Head in fine porcelain by a famous Italian potter. I found it in South Africa and have had it in my collection since 1977. It's a large piece, about fourteen inches tall and fourteen inches in diameter.

It's a bit like the Mona Lisa. The expression on his face tends to reflect your mood: sometimes smiling, sometimes serious, sometimes inquisitive, etc. A very intriguing piece.

Hey Peter! I'm really happy to have you on my friends list. I really like your ideas and your sense of humor. Goes fine with me!

I am sixth down the line on my friends list. It's not important to me to be at the top. It's fun to watch the markets shift and weather the storm. The new leaderboards are going to be great in that everyone can see who is near them and watch shifts up and down. I think that will be a lot more fun for everyone. It's neat to see all of your friends together on one board, and even nicer to be invited to join someone else's board.

Weather the storm? HORTON nearly got me this weekend: cost me H$ 8k. Amazingly, everyone near me also had problems this weekend, and we rode the waves together (playing hopscotch for a few days). It seems to have settled out, right where we were before. But, of course, that will change, and that is the fun of hubdub!

Oops, sorry. I'll keep that in mind..

In association with jerry I put up a discussion on HUBDUB playing guidelines for rookies on getsatisfaction:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/the_golden_rules_for_successfully_playing_the_hubdub
Counting on your contribution! Thanks in advance!

Need your input on this burning topic
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/tits

In my scheme you retain the current value of your predictions in the All-Time User Hall of Fame total.

I'll have to reread the thread ... isn't the initial "All-Time User Hall of Fame" going to be created based on the current value of predications (as of March 31st)?

Is the "All-Time User Hall of Fame" created for all users -- or just, maybe, the "Top 20"?

How does the June 31st "All-Time User Hall of Fame" get created -- would it not be the sum of both quarters?

I guess I don't see, under either scenario, how the current value of one's predications isn't reflected (retained) in the "All-Time User Hall of Fame".

I must be missing something ... I'm a tad tired ... I got a phone call at 3:00am this morning, and had to make sound, clear decisions. (It did take me six rings to answer the phone.)

-TruthWrangler

Newswrangler (I mean TruthWrangler 8^), that's a feature of my proposal, actually, it's one of the things my campaign addresses (change!, change!, spare change anyone 8^). In the Hubdub quarterly reallocation scheme the current value of open predictions is discounted (re-valued). In my scheme you retain the current value of your predictions in the All-Time User Hall of Fame total. The user's cash position is reset after all the markets are cashed out. Cashing out the markets restores the odds to their original state, and while I see some gaming potential in that, I think a mechanism could be put in place to avoid that. Actually, the no bidding on your created questions, and no cashing out on investments, for 12 hours after a question is created, constraints would probably be as effective as they are now 8^P

I read the thread, and I'm trying to digest it ... [burp] before responding ...

On first glance, one question arises about your interesting alternate proposal ... you wrote:

"That way all the markets return to their initial odds, and everyone gets to start over at the same time, possibly still with differing amounts of H$."

While all markets return to their initial odds, the user's positions would likely never get to where they were (notwithstanding a market gold rush ... available to those who are able to be on-line at the time).

As you know, many users' current positions are the result of dramatic movements within the particular market. For example, I'm in the "Will Ron Paul drop out ... ?" market, because when the "news" was announced, users flocked to that market and drove it up to the high 90's "Yes". I bought in a 7% or something, "No" ... and that market is now very high "No". Even with a gold rush, that market position wouldn't (likely) ever occur again.

"Why not cash out all the markets, add everyone's quarter-end total net worth to their All-Time Leader Board total ... "

My "gain" from the 7% Ron Paul position is already reflected in my quarterly net gain (and net worth) ...

I'm glad to be able to flesh out things here ... there are some aspects of the math that I don't instinctively grasp ... or other considerations I don't see at first blush, so it's helpful to be able to 'toss them around' ...

please add your thoughts to this discussion: http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/leaderboard_end_of_quarter_changes

LOL news/truth wrangler. No matter your identity, you wrangle for the truth. Props, AnAverageAmerican

heh heh heh, i sent truthwranger a phishing email, with a fake hubdub link.

i took over his account, changed the user name and pw and now i have all of his H$ money HA HA HA!

skipper

Welcome back pics4d. I was so upset you didn't refriend me I was going to have the admins delete my account ;^)

hi....i knew i forgot about one of my friends, sorry bout that...how's it going

Now I'm going to be accused of beating my kid! Great! 8^)

So, beating skipper again, eh? Well done