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Is Kurt Beck, head of germanys SPD, going to resign before 1/1/2009?

Settled as Yes

Resigned Sept 7, 2008.
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/230182,german-spd-in-drastic-reshuffle-ahead-of-september-2009-elections.html

Background:

Kurt Beck, head of germanys SPD, is a highly controversial and not very liked head of party: many hold him personally responsible for devastingly bad polls in the last couple of month. His political fate depends on the outcome of a power-struggle between the left and right wings of the party: left wants to keep him, right wants to see him go. As of now Beck refused even to consider resignation


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
56%
No
44%
Activity: H$5,539
Settled as Yes on Sun 7th Sep 3:11pm PDT

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sun 7th Sep 3:11pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 7th Sep 5:35am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Wed 25th Jun 12:29am PDT by exilpat
Suspended Sun 7th Sep 5:44am PDT by kruijs[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Sun 7th Sep 5:44am PDT by kruijs[Power User]: Beck has announced to resign today:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,576812,00.html (market suspended)

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sun 7th Sep 3:11pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 7th Sep 5:35am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (23)

23 predictions

12 weeks ago
whtimo predicted Yes (H$2,705 at 52%)
12 weeks ago
nuese predicted Yes (H$50 at 49%)
12 weeks ago
gilliganp predicted No (H$20 at 51%)
12 weeks ago
haraldschenker predicted Yes (H$50 at 49%)
12 weeks ago
phobos predicted No (H$50 at 51%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Please refer to the Spitzer clause:

"Unless specified otherwise, a question asking when a public figure will resign will be settled on the date the figure announces their intention to resign rather than the date the resignation becomes effective"
posted 22 weeks ago

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