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Created Fri 27th Jun 4:25am PDT by lesley[Admin]
All questions » World » UK » 

Which UK airport will be the next to suffer a "successful" terrorist attack?

Current forecast: Heathrow (27% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Heathrow with a probability of 27% (unchanged in last 1 day)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7476112.stm

Terrorism expert warns that UK airports are not taking the threat of aviation security seriously enough (which after being forced to drink baby milk and have my son's blankie forcibly ripped from his flailing arms last time I flew, I'm not sure I agree with!)

Still, he reckons the airports in the UK are still open to attack. It's coming up to the 1st anniversary of the attack on Glasgow Airport (June 30th) - where will the next one be?
 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

 Glasgow Airport
4%
Edinburgh Airport
4%
Heathrow
27%
Gatwick
11%
Birmingham
8%
Belfast International
4%
Other Airport
16%
No attack happens by end June 2009
26%
Activity: H$1,763
Question suspends in 43 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by the BBC. The perpetrator(s) of any attack must be referred to by the BBC as "terrorists". This will NOT be settled if there is a report of a thwarted attack.

Suspend date: Tue 30th Jun 2009 4:59pm PDT (43 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Glasgow Airport: 5%, Edinburgh Airport: 5%, Heathrow: 20%, Gatwick: 15%, Birmingham: 10%, Belfast International: 5%, Other Airport: 10%, No attack happens by end June 2009: 30%

Action history:

Created Fri 27th Jun 4:25am PDT by lesley[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by the BBC. The perpetrator(s) of any attack must be referred to by the BBC as "terrorists". This will NOT be settled if there is a report of a thwarted attack.... read all

 

Predictions (30)

30 predictions

8 weeks ago
chriswalkr predicted Gatwick (H$20 at 12%)
8 weeks ago
chriswalkr predicted Heathrow (H$20 at 20%)
8 weeks ago
lurobbo predicted No attack happens by end June 2009 (H$20 at 30%)
8 weeks ago
davidould predicted Birmingham (H$43 at 8%)
8 weeks ago
pencilpusher predicted Other Airport (H$100 at 17%)
more

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