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Will the US embassy in London pay their congestion taxes?

Current forecast: US refuses to make any payments by 12/31/08 (63% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is US refuses to make any payments by 12/31/08 with a probability of 63% (unchanged in last 1 day)

In 2003, London introduced a traffic congestion tax of about $16 a day to drive in the busiest parts of London during certain times of the day. Since 2003, US embassy staffers have not paid their fees 23,188 times and now owe the City of London more than $3.9 million. They owe more than any other country, coming in ahead of Japan at $2.6 million.

<<"This is a perfectly proper charge and the failure to pay such a huge amount is not only extremely discourteous to the people of London and the country as a whole, but is undermining U.K. domestic transport policy," opposition Liberal Democrat lawmaker Norman Baker said in a statement.

U.S. Ambassador Robert Tuttle claims the toll is a tax. Since diplomats are exempted from paying local taxes, he argues his staff shouldn't have to pay the levy. >>

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25400033/

Will the US pay all, some, or none of the assessed fees by the end of 2008?
 
Forecast history, %
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US pays all fees assessed by 12/31/08
9%
US agrees to make partial payments by 12/31/08
18%
US refuses to make any payments by 12/31/08
63%
Another arrangement is made by US and London
10%
Activity: H$923
Question suspends in 12 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (12 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: US pays all fees assessed by 12/31/08: 10%, US agrees to make partial payments by 12/31/08: 20%, US refuses to make any payments by 12/31/08: 60%, Another arrangement is made by US and London: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 27th Jun 5:30am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (14)

14 predictions

6 weeks ago
pepe predicted US refuses to make any payments by 12/31/08 (H$200 at 62%)
6 weeks ago
pepe predicted US refuses to make any payments by 12/31/08 (H$20 at 61%)
7 weeks ago
chull predicted US refuses to make any payments by 12/31/08 (H$100 at 61%)
7 weeks ago
gilliganp predicted US refuses to make any payments by 12/31/08 (H$33 at 60%)
14 weeks ago
onmejack predicted US refuses to make any payments by 12/31/08 (H$100 at 61%)
more

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