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How many of these four battleground states (MN, MI, WI, CO) will Obama win?

Settled as Obama wins the popular vote in all 4 states

A recent Quinnipiac poll reported by Fox News has Obama currently leading in all four of these critical states. Any of these could go either way in the election and all of them carry enough electoral votes to be worthy of a LOT of attention.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/06/26/poll-obama-tops-mccain-in-4-battlegr
ound-states/

Data from the poll:

The largest gap exists with 17 percent, 54-37, of Minnesota’s 1,572 like voters preferring Obama over Republican John McCain. The margin of error was 2.5 percent.

In Michigan, 1,411 likely voters put Obama over McCain 48-42 percent, with a margin of error of 2.6 percent.

In Wisconsin, 1,537 likely voters gave Obama a 52-39 advantage over McCain, with a margin of error of 2.5 percent.

In Colorado, 1,351 likely voters gave Obama a 5 point lead over McCain, 49-44, with a margin of error of 2.7 percent.

Big leads for the Big O in Wisconsin and Minnesota with close contests in the other two. So, what will be the outcome in November?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Obama wins the popular vote in all 4 states
91%
Obama wins the pop. vote in any 3 of the 4 states
4%
Obama wins the pop. vote in any 2 of the 4 states
4%
Obama wins the pop.vote in only 1 of the 4 states
1%
Obama wins the pop. vote in none of the 4 states
0%
Activity: H$25,571
Settled as Obama wins the popular vote in all 4 states on Tue 4th Nov 9:56pm PST

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:56pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama wins the popular vote in all 4 states: 25%, Obama wins the pop. vote in any 3 of the 4 states: 30%, Obama wins the pop. vote in any 2 of the 4 states: 35%, Obama wins the pop.vote in only 1 of the 4 states: 7%, Obama wins the pop. vote in none of the 4 states: 3%

Action history:

Created Fri 27th Jun 6:01am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]
Suspended Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Obama wins the popular vote in all 4 states' Tue 4th Nov 9:56pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:56pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (43)

43 predictions

4 weeks ago
thomismydad[Power User] predicted Obama wins the popular vote in all 4 states (H$3,000 at 78%)
4 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted Obama wins the popular vote in all 4 states (H$500 at 70%)
4 weeks ago
steez predicted Obama wins the popular vote in all 4 states (H$100 at 68%)
4 weeks ago
smidge76 predicted Obama wins the popular vote in all 4 states (H$300 at 67%)
6 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted Obama wins the popular vote in all 4 states (H$2,300 at 56%)
more

Comments (1)

Well, it looks like he could go run for some office in Germany :-)
posted 18 weeks ago

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