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Will Avril Lavigne's YouTube clip of Girlfriend Become the Most Watched Clip of All Time?

Settled as Yes, between 16 July and 25 July 2008 (inclusive)

http://blog.wired.com/music/2008/07/avril-lavigne-a.html

http://www.youtube.com/browse?s=mp&t=a&c=0&l=&b=0

Background:

Avril Lavigne's Girlfriend - Really (Really) Annoying (Annoying) Song to get Highest Hits on YouTube?

Avril Lavigne fans are leading the charge to have her song Girlfriend become the 'most watched' vid on the Tube. It is currently only 1 million hits away from overtaking the number one clip 'Evolution of Dance' in which comedian Judson Laipply smoothly demonstrates some iconic dance moves of the past decade.

However, the petite Canadian's geeky fans are copping plenty of criticism for their shady tactics. One site, the Avril Bandaids, has created a special webpage which automatically reloads the clip every 15 seconds, adding another hit to the clip. The site has advised fans to keep the browser open all day.

This has outraged many, who believe that YouTube hits should remain legitimate representations of public interest which have previously led to such clips of brilliance as 'Dramatic Chipmunk' and the Laughing baby video 'Hahaha'. Will Lavigne make it to number one or will site admins step in? Decide for yourself by checking out the clip...or don't!


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes, before 28 June 2008
1%
Yes, between 28 June and 15 July 2008 (inclusive)
0%
Yes, between 16 July and 25 July 2008 (inclusive)
88%
None of the Above/YouTube Admins take action
11%
Activity: H$45,340
Settled as Yes, between 16 July and 25 July 2008 (inclusive) on Sat 19th Jul 1:16am PDT

Suspend date: Thu 31st Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 19th Jul 1:16am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes, before 28 June 2008: 40%, Yes, between 28 June and 15 July 2008 (inclusive): 20%, Yes, between 16 July and 25 July 2008 (inclusive): 2%, None of the Above/YouTube Admins take action : 38%

Action history:

Created Fri 27th Jun 6:27am PDT by tisha[Admin]
Suspended Fri 27th Jun 7:06am PDT by kruijs[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Can't settle with a "yes after ..." option because we had to wait endlessly.
There is a possibility of not reaching the amount of hits needed, without the admins taking action.
Clarified Fri 27th Jun 7:10am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Good point Kruijs! Outcome text slightly modified
Unsuspended Fri 27th Jun 7:35am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Outcome problem has been fixed
Settlement requested Thu 17th Jul 10:14pm PDT by destry[Admin]: According to Youtube website Avril is currently leading. (market suspended)
Suspended Thu 17th Jul 10:14pm PDT by destry[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Thu 17th Jul 11:05pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]:
This, perhaps, will take an Admin to see it for themselves.

At the moment, clicking on the "Statistics & Data" tab, avril is still #2 (2:05AM July 18, 2008)

<http://www.youtube.com/browse?t=a&p=1&s=mp&c=0&l=>
Unsuspended Fri 18th Jul 1:52am PDT by tisha[Admin]: it appears that EoD is still in front; market is reopened
Settlement requested Fri 18th Jul 9:11am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]:
As of the moment, Avril is ahead.

The "stats" page hasn't updated, showing it as number one, BUT when you look at the numbers, side-by-side, Avril is ahead on the "stats" page:

<http://www.youtube.com/browse?t=a&p=1&s=mp&c=0&l=>
Suspended Fri 18th Jul 10:10am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user:
Suspended pending review of Settlement information.
Settlement requested Fri 18th Jul 1:03pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Settlement source without haggling! http://blog.wired.com/music/2008/07/avril-lavigne-a.html
Settled as 'Yes, between 16 July and 25 July 2008 (inclusive)' Sat 19th Jul 1:16am PDT by tisha[Admin]: http://blog.wired.com/music/2008/07/avril-lavigne-a.html

http://www.youtube.com/browse?s=mp&t=a&c=0&l=&b=0

Suspend date: Thu 31st Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 19th Jul 1:16am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (123)

123 predictions

19 weeks ago
destry[Admin] predicted Yes, between 16 July and 25 July 2008 (inclusive) (H$6,326 at 92%)
19 weeks ago
glcooper predicted Yes, between 16 July and 25 July 2008 (inclusive) (H$100 at 61%)
19 weeks ago
aland predicted Yes, between 16 July and 25 July 2008 (inclusive) (H$200 at 61%)
19 weeks ago
sdchargers[Power User] predicted Yes, between 16 July and 25 July 2008 (inclusive) (H$100 at 60%)
19 weeks ago
destry[Admin] predicted Yes, between 16 July and 25 July 2008 (inclusive) (H$1,000 at 55%)
more

Comments (31)

  1 skipper[Power User]
The song's a bit ego-maniacal... but I seem to like it for some reason...
and Welcome Back Tisha!
posted 22 weeks ago
  2 skipper[Power User]
Just made a google doc of the number of view this thing produces per minute, per person watching (the 15 sec reload screen)
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pENCckPHjjhKVKQ6mmbIxPQ
posted 22 weeks ago
Here's why I like the song.. music starts @ 2:30: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tKAEEgzdrY
posted 22 weeks ago
  4 dieseldog
how many views does the all time video got? according to the links avril's has already passed the haha baby.
posted 22 weeks ago
@7:29 EDT:
EoD - 90,365,144
AvL - 89,596,895
posted 22 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
thanks jenni.
posted 22 weeks ago
Evolution of Dance 2 is coming!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61heClTFc5w
<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/61heClTFc5w&hl=en"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/61heClTFc5w&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
posted 22 weeks ago
91,627,119
91,275,602
posted 20 weeks ago
Evolution - 91,981,655
Avril - 91,761,304
posted 20 weeks ago
  10 tisha[Admin]
Please note that the option outcomes have been edited slightly to make the dates unambiguously non-overlapping
posted 20 weeks ago
  11 guibraguim
Update :

EoD = 92,091,718
Avril = 91,896,867
posted 20 weeks ago
  12 dieseldog
11:18 pm EST 131,826 more people better be watching arvil A.S.A.P or lots of folks will cashingin.

eod 92,266,174
arvil 92,134,348
posted 20 weeks ago
  13 guibraguim
EoD = 92,360,220
Avril: 92,260,190

100.30 behind
posted 19 weeks ago
  14 guibraguim
In 14 days:

Evolution of Dance: +1,995,076 viewers
Avril Lavigne: +2,663,295 viewers
posted 19 weeks ago
Nice analysis guibraguim! Seems pretty sure to happen soon... but by the end of tonight? I'm beginning to think no.
posted 19 weeks ago
A difficulty with this market is that the counts are not updated in real time.

The count for both videos at 10:45PM (EDT) is exactly the same as it was two hours ago....

Evolution of Dance: 92,360,220
Avril Lavigne: 92,260,190
posted 19 weeks ago
  17 guibraguim
EoD - 92,479,148
Avril - 92,461,091

WOW! Thats close
posted 19 weeks ago
  18 dieseldog
arvil is stuck at 92,461,091, same number at 12:58am EST. maybe it will change at 1am.
posted 19 weeks ago
  19 dieseldog
eod 92,514,249
arvil 92,461,091 53,158 1:04am EST 7-17-08
posted 19 weeks ago
  20 guibraguim
EoD - 92,578,615
Avril - 92,546,62
posted 19 weeks ago
  21 dieseldog
eod 92,641,260

arvil 92,636,966

hope somebody watches this closely. these numbers could go back and forth. arvil could pass eod and nobody will know.
posted 19 weeks ago
  22 tisha[Admin]
EoD still in front when i just checked
posted 19 weeks ago
  23 ryanb37
i think the numbers refresh every couple hours i dont think its real time because i watched a video on youtube twice and it didnt count the views until later
posted 19 weeks ago
  24 guibraguim
Something is wrong...

EoD -92,692,117
Avril - 92,696,978

I think the next refresh will change the positions.
posted 19 weeks ago
  25 dieseldog
according to guibraguim and the numbers i just got arvil has passed eod. exactly when i don't know.

eod 92,692,117

arvil 92,696,978

12:20 pm 7-18-08
posted 19 weeks ago
We're not the only ones who saw Avril take the lead: http://blog.wired.com/music/2008/07/avril-lavigne-a.html
posted 19 weeks ago
  27 ryanb37
she is still behind on youtube and EOD has not Dropped from the #1 spot according to Youtube so it is only avil's management saying that she has passed on that blog
posted 19 weeks ago
  28 dieseldog
@ryanb..at 12:20 pm 7-18-08 eod was behind. don't know what time guibraguim checked, but eod was behind then also. i just checked the links above and arvil is still ahead. i'm going by the links in the question. according to link jenni posted it happen sometime thursday, and arvil wants $2 millon dollars. i cashed out awhile back..no money invovled for me. have a nice day.
posted 19 weeks ago
  30 dieseldog
*
posted 18 weeks ago
  31 dieseldog
--------
posted 17 weeks ago

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