Created Fri 27th Jun 3:32pm PDT by

All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 »

How many lead changes in Gallup Obama/McCain polls will there be in July?

Settled as None

Wow that was close. Last day it was tied. But according to rules, ties do not count as lead change. Therefore amount of lead changes for July is NONE.

Background:

The question concerns how many times a new leader emerges in the Gallup daily polling for the US presidential election in the month of July. NOTE: In the event of a "Obama leads-TIE-Obama leads" situation, it will NOT count as a lead change!

A lead change between 30-Jun and 1-Jul will count towards the total.

Note that polls are three day averages, and that the poll for day N is released on day N+1 (at about 1300EST). See http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx for the latest.

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

None

100%

5 or more

Activity: H$71,428

Settled as None on Fri 1st Aug 10:19am PDT

Settlement details: As reported at http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx.

Suspend date: Wed 30th Jul 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Fri 1st Aug 10:19am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 30th Jul 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: None: 25%, 1: 35%, 2: 20%, 3: 10%, 4: 7%, 5 or more: 3%

Action history:

Created Fri 27th Jun 3:32pm PDT by

triathematician

Suspended Wed 30th Jul 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached

Settled as 'None' Fri 1st Aug 10:19am PDT by

destry [Admin]

: show details

Wow that was close. Last day it was tied. But according to rules, ties do not count as lead change. Therefore amount of lead changes for July is NONE.

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Settlement details: As reported at http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx. ... read all

Predictions (91)

91 predictions

10 weeks ago

valornhonor [Power User]

predicted 1 (H$20 at 0%)

10 weeks ago

bulog predicted 2 (H$100 at 1%)

10 weeks ago

bulog predicted 1 (H$100 at 1%)

11 weeks ago

opie predicted None (H$100 at 97%)

11 weeks ago

infernalmachine [Admin]

predicted None (H$10,000 at 98%)

Comments (2)

jenniandboys [Admin]

From a high of +9 only days ago Obama is now at +1. There's a very good chance of a lead change in tomorrow's poll which WOULD count towards this question.

posted 10 weeks ago

tarpash

This is going to be close!

posted 10 weeks ago

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