Will Britney Spears perform at this year's MTV VMA Awards?
Market was recreated (a very long time ago)
Background:>
MTV president, Van Toffler indicated that they 'might' consider giving the troubled star another shot at the Video Music Awards program in September.
<<“Everyone deserves a second or third chance, right?” Van Toffler, president of MTV Networks Music Group, playfully told The Associated Press during a telephone interview Friday.>>
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25416117/
In case you don't remember, or didn't care, Britney opened the show last year in a most horrible fashion and her disappointing performance was the talk of the show. Everybody figured that her star was not going to be shining anymore. BUT...never say never...just having her appear in any fashion may draw more viewers, and isn't that the name of the game?
So, will we get to see her again?
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Voided
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Britney performs a song live on the show |
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Britney appears in a taped performance |
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Britney only appears as a presenter |
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Britney appears in any other way as part of show |
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Britney is not part of the show in anyway |
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Britney is only shown as an audience member |
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Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT
Initial likelihoods: Britney performs a song live on the show: 15%, Britney appears in a taped performance: 15%, Britney only appears as a presenter: 15%, Britney appears in any other way as part of show: 15%, Britney is not part of the show in anyway: 25%, Britney is only shown as an audience member: 15%
Action history:
If she is a presenter and shown in the audience there will be a problem.
Market will be settled if there is an announcement that Britney is going to perform - should circumstances change and she not perform on the day, there will be a resettlement.
Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT
more info...
Predictions (7)
7 predictions
Comments (6)
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- Britney only appears as a presenter
- Britney is only shown as an audience member
I think the common sense rule may be valid for settling this question, however I am afraid the settlement may be contested if she is shown in the audience and is a presenter.
I have flagged for review and suspended this market in hopes it can be clarified before much more $H is invested in it.
This is an excellent question and is a great example of the challenges faced when creating questions.
I think a clarification in the settlement details can save this question. it should be something along the lines of "A combination of blue and purple options will settle as blue".
I hope this will help. It's hard to make sure every detail is covered.
Market will be settled if there is an announcement that Britney is going to perform - should circumstances change and she not perform on the day, there will be a resettlement.
I think there are two options for this market:
1 - Will Brittney perform either Live or via Satellite during the VMA award ceremony. With yes/no option.
2 - What role will Brittney play at this years VMA's. With option for performing song in person, performing song via satellite, having a performance that was pre-recorded played, being a presenter, being a comedy skit, just being in audience, then have option that is covering two or more of the events, and finally an option that says Brittney isn't a part of the VMA's in any way, not even attending.
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