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Will Britney Spears perform at this year's MTV VMA Awards?

Voided

Market was recreated (a very long time ago)

Background:

Do you give her one more chance?

MTV president, Van Toffler indicated that they 'might' consider giving the troubled star another shot at the Video Music Awards program in September.

<<“Everyone deserves a second or third chance, right?” Van Toffler, president of MTV Networks Music Group, playfully told The Associated Press during a telephone interview Friday.>>
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25416117/

In case you don't remember, or didn't care, Britney opened the show last year in a most horrible fashion and her disappointing performance was the talk of the show. Everybody figured that her star was not going to be shining anymore. BUT...never say never...just having her appear in any fashion may draw more viewers, and isn't that the name of the game?

So, will we get to see her again?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

Britney performs a song live on the show
15%
Britney appears in a taped performance
15%
Britney only appears as a presenter
15%
Britney appears in any other way as part of show
15%
Britney is not part of the show in anyway
25%
Britney is only shown as an audience member
15%
Voided Wed 13th Aug 12:40pm PDT

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Britney performs a song live on the show: 15%, Britney appears in a taped performance: 15%, Britney only appears as a presenter: 15%, Britney appears in any other way as part of show: 15%, Britney is not part of the show in anyway: 25%, Britney is only shown as an audience member: 15%

Action history:

Created Sat 28th Jun 4:25am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]
Suspended Sat 28th Jun 10:55am PDT by mork[Power User]: Flagged by super user: This question needs to be clarified.
If she is a presenter and shown in the audience there will be a problem.
Clarified Sat 28th Jun 11:30pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: To settle as yes, this question would require a performance - either live at the venue or by satellite - of Britney singing a song, NOT only her presenting an award or being shown to be in the audience.

Market will be settled if there is an announcement that Britney is going to perform - should circumstances change and she not perform on the day, there will be a resettlement.
Voided Wed 13th Aug 12:40pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Market was recreated (a very long time ago)

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (7)

7 predictions

22 weeks ago
monkeynacho predicted Britney is not part of the show in anyway (H$100 at 30%)
22 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Britney is only shown as an audience member (H$50 at 15%)
22 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Britney is not part of the show in anyway (H$100 at 27%)
22 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Britney is only shown as an audience member (H$20 at 15%)
22 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Britney is not part of the show in anyway (H$100 at 26%)

Comments (6)

  1 destry[Admin]
Great question. One thing though - If she performs a live performance, is shown in the audience, and is a presenter how does the question settle?
posted 22 weeks ago
  2 mork[Power User]
Take note of the word "only".
- Britney only appears as a presenter
- Britney is only shown as an audience member

I think the common sense rule may be valid for settling this question, however I am afraid the settlement may be contested if she is shown in the audience and is a presenter.

I have flagged for review and suspended this market in hopes it can be clarified before much more $H is invested in it.

This is an excellent question and is a great example of the challenges faced when creating questions.

I think a clarification in the settlement details can save this question. it should be something along the lines of "A combination of blue and purple options will settle as blue".

I hope this will help. It's hard to make sure every detail is covered.
posted 22 weeks ago
  3 ryanb37
if she presents or is in the audience i hardly think that would be considered performing
posted 22 weeks ago
  4 tisha[Admin]
To settle as yes, this question would require a performance - either live at the venue or by satellite - of Britney singing a song, NOT only her presenting an award or being shown to be in the audience.

Market will be settled if there is an announcement that Britney is going to perform - should circumstances change and she not perform on the day, there will be a resettlement.
posted 22 weeks ago
  5 destry[Admin]
I am more confused than before. Maybe if the question read what will Brittney do at this years VMA's, then the options would make sense. But question asks if she will perform, but there are options for just sitting in the audience. I suggest that since there is time before this event occurs, we get the question cleaned up and options made easier to understand.
I think there are two options for this market:
1 - Will Brittney perform either Live or via Satellite during the VMA award ceremony. With yes/no option.
2 - What role will Brittney play at this years VMA's. With option for performing song in person, performing song via satellite, having a performance that was pre-recorded played, being a presenter, being a comedy skit, just being in audience, then have option that is covering two or more of the events, and finally an option that says Brittney isn't a part of the VMA's in any way, not even attending.
posted 22 weeks ago
  6 ryanb37
Tishia maybe instead of settling the question if she is announced Suspend it so if she bails on it people wont get confused and you guys will not have to resettle
posted 22 weeks ago

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