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What will happen to the dolphins in New Jersey rivers?

Voided

The nature of this situation has changed significantly since the creation of the question - officials have now decided to leave the dolphins for the time being. As the suspend date has now passed, and none of the outcomes seem to be impending in the near future, unfortunately this question has to be voided.

Background:

Between 12 and 15 bottle-nose dolphins have been observed in the Shrewsbury and Navesink Rivers since mid-June. It has been theorized that bridge construction may be preventing the dolphins from swimming to the ocean. If necessary, officials plan to coax the dolphins towards the ocean as early as June 29. http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/jun/26/authorities-hope-shoo-dolphins-new-jersey-rivers/
http://www.redbankgreen.com/redbankgreen/2008/06/dolphin-evacuat.html
http://hub.gmnews.com/news/2008/0626/Front_page/004.html


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Voided

All dolphins return to the ocean without human aid
25%
Human aid required to return all dolphins to ocean
45%
At least one dolphin dies because of boat contact
15%
At least one dolphin dies of other causes
15%
Voided Fri 4th Jul 3:27am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 4th Jul 12:59am PDT

Initial likelihoods: All dolphins return to the ocean without human aid: 25%, Human aid required to return all dolphins to ocean: 45%, At least one dolphin dies because of boat contact: 15%, At least one dolphin dies of other causes: 15%

Action history:

Created Sat 28th Jun 12:07pm PDT by onedave[Power User]
Suspended Fri 4th Jul 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Voided Fri 4th Jul 3:27am PDT by tisha[Admin]: The nature of this situation has changed significantly since the creation of the question - officials have now decided to leave the dolphins for the time being. As the suspend date has now passed, and none of the outcomes seem to be impending in the near future, unfortunately this question has to be voided.

Suspend date: Fri 4th Jul 12:59am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (42)

42 predictions

21 weeks ago
semperfi76 predicted All dolphins return to the ocean without human aid (H$100 at 27%)
21 weeks ago
cookietime predicted At least one dolphin dies of other causes (H$50 at 30%)
21 weeks ago
teamdiscoverychannel predicted Human aid required to return all dolphins to ocean (H$100 at 32%)
21 weeks ago
dannice predicted All dolphins return to the ocean without human aid (H$20 at 29%)
21 weeks ago
kuberak predicted Human aid required to return all dolphins to ocean (H$100 at 27%)
more

Comments (11)

  1 onedave[Power User]
Of course, the last option does not include a dolphin dying after it returns to the ocean.
posted 22 weeks ago
How does this settle if "Human aid required to return one dolphin to the ocean?"
posted 21 weeks ago
  3 onedave[Power User]
If all other dolphins return without human aid, it settles as 'Human aid required to return all dolphins to the ocean. If one or more dolphins die before reaching the ocean, the market settles as 'At least one dolphin dies.' Exact option depends on how the first dolphin dies.
posted 21 weeks ago
@ onedave - my question is what is the option if one, or two, or three dolphins require aid to return to the ocean, but the others don't.

In that case, human aid wasn't required to return all dolphins to the ocean -- only some required human aid;
and, all dolphins didn't require aid to return to the ocean -- only 2 or 3 did (assume no deaths in this scenario).

Assuming no deaths, I only see options for all dolphins with human aid, and all dolphins without human aid -- not some dolphins with (or without) human aid.
posted 21 weeks ago
  5 tisha[Admin]
At the moment, if it is reported that only some of the dolphins required human aid, then this question will have to be voided.
posted 21 weeks ago
I don't think the choices cover enough of the possibilities to permit this question to remain open without an "Other" choice. Flagged, but not suspended.
posted 21 weeks ago
  7 onedave[Power User]
I think we are getting picky on the wording. (Remember that we only have 50 characters for each option.)

My reasoning for giving the options was as follows: The last two options cannot interfere with the first two options. The first option seems pretty uncontroversial. For option two, if the last dolphin requires human aid to return to the ocean, they all return to the ocean and human aid is used to do it.
posted 21 weeks ago
  8 onedave[Power User]
Everything I have read indicates that the dolphins are traveling as a family. Dolphins are like humans in many ways. Humans do not leave sick family members behind. It does not seem valid that there is a 1 percent or higher chance that the dolphins split unless there is a death.
posted 21 weeks ago
  9 onedave[Power User]
I have flagged this market. The administrator may amend the suspend date/time if circumstances change.
posted 21 weeks ago
I agree with onedave here. The issue here is do all the dolphins return to the ocean. If yes, did that require human aid or not. If not, then was at least one of the deaths caused by boat contact or not. I suppose you could say that we need an "Other" option in case one or more of the dolphins applies for asylum in the US, but seriously. I do not understand why some people are trying to make this question seem troublesome, when they have clearly not really spent the time to understand what onedave is asking. This question was fine, and should not have been voided.
posted 21 weeks ago
  11 onedave[Power User]
I opened a discussion on get satisfaction related to this market. Its address is http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/re_opening_voided_questions
posted 21 weeks ago

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