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Will Kevin "Skwerl" Cogill survive Chinese Democracy?

Settled as He gets away with it

Although he's been arrested, his plea isn't being entered until after the release of the album (the questions settleby date). Axl has also stated repeatedly that he's not interested in Kevin so much as where Kevin got the tracks.

Background:

It looks like Guns N' Roses near-mythical album Chinese Democracy is imminent. On 18 June Antiquiet.com, a little-known US rock website, made nine songs available.

A poster named Skwerl said, without explaining the source of the tracks, "I always said that the more that Axl and Geffen jerked around trying to figure out how to release this finally finished album that we've all been waiting over 13 years for, the greater the chances would be that it would slip out of a pressing plant or office somewhere and wind up in the hands of some asshole with a blog, So ... hey, I told you so." The songs were then removed hours later, with a note that, "we got a call from Guns N' Roses".

http://www.musicradar.com/news/guitars/guns-n-roses-leaked-to-youtube-161405

Kevin "Skwerl" Cogill had a knock from the FBI – two young officers who Skwerl described as "Mulder and Scully types" tasked with sealing the leak.

"I wasn't sure if they were going to come by with a warrant and trash the place, like in the movies - It was nothing like that". When asked about possible legal action Skwerl said: "I'm not so worried about that - It's a legal grey area since it wasn't for download, it wasn't a finished product. We aren't sure who owns the recordings. I feel like I might survive this".

http://www.musicradar.com/news/guitars/fbi-question-guns-n-roses-chinese-democracy-leaker-161611

Will Kevin "Skwerl" Cogill feelings be right and he survives until the record is released?

(Cat-Eds: Please correct suspend date accordingly to the release of the album)

Related market:
http://www.hubdub.com/m899


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

He's impeached
10%
He's impeached, but Axl Rose thanks him
2%
He gets away with it
80%
He gets away with it though Axl Rose upbraids him
8%
Activity: H$19,186
Settled as He gets away with it on Tue 18th Nov 10:01am PST

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Tue 18th Nov 10:01am PST

Initial likelihoods: He's impeached: 30%, He's impeached, but Axl Rose thanks him: 10%, He gets away with it: 40%, He gets away with it though Axl Rose upbraids him: 20%

Action history:

Created Sat 28th Jun 1:06pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]
Suspended Mon 10th Nov 3:11pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: breaking news
Settled as 'He gets away with it' Tue 18th Nov 10:01am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Although he's been arrested, his plea isn't being entered until after the release of the album (the questions settleby date). Axl has also stated repeatedly that he's not interested in Kevin so much as where Kevin got the tracks.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Tue 18th Nov 10:01am PST
more info...

 

Predictions (50)

50 predictions

3 weeks ago
brjschmidt predicted He gets away with it though Axl Rose upbraids him (H$20 at 7%)
3 weeks ago
hect0r predicted He gets away with it (H$100 at 81%)
3 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted He gets away with it (H$1,000 at 78%)
3 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted He gets away with it (H$1,000 at 73%)
3 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted He gets away with it (H$1,000 at 67%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Seems to be some movement in this:

"A preliminary hearing has been scheduled for September 17th at 4:30 PM and the arraignment for September 22nd at 8:30 AM. Both will be at the U.S. District Court Building, and the address is 255 East Temple Street, Third Floor, in Downtown Los Angeles."

http://www.antiquiet.com/editorials/2008/08/abbie-hoffman-where-are-you/
http://www.antiquiet.com/editorials/2008/08/the-united-states-of-america-cares-a-lot-about-democracy/
posted 13 weeks ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
Guns N' Roses to release new album next month

More than a decade after its conception, Guns N' Roses' "Chinese Democracy" will finally see the light of day before year's end, sources close to the situation told Billboard.

The set will be a Best Buy exclusive and will be available Sunday, November 23, rather than the usual Tuesday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/musicNews/idUSTRE49898V20081009
posted 7 weeks ago

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