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Will The 3G iPhone Be Jail Broken Within A Week?

Background: The Industry Standard has a great question on whether the 3G iPhone will be broken within a week of it's release. They are currently forecasting 56%, what do Hubdubbers think?

As a sidenote Tom is the most recent victim of Apple fever. He keeps his Mac in a little protective bag and at lunch time drones on about Steve Job's keynote speeches. He's admitted he will be at the front of the line with his sleeping bag and flask of hot tea at the store when they release the 3G iPhone.

Settlement details:The 3G iPhone will be considered jail broken if it is able to have non-Apple approved applications and used on other carriers besides AT&T (although not necessarily using a 3G network).

 
Forecast history %
Yes
75%
No
25%
Settled as Yes on Wed 16th Jul 2008 12:03pm PST

Suspend date: Mon 21st Jul 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 16th Jul 2008 12:03pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 16th Jul 2008 5:25am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 28th Jun 2008 1:40pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Suspended Thu 10th Jul 2008 5:24pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Thu 10th Jul 2008 5:24pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: suspending pending review of source: http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/10/that-didnt-take-longiphone-20-os-unlocked/

(I have no idea what jailbroken means.. ) (market suspended)
Unsuspended Mon 14th Jul 2008 3:20pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: Apologies, my mistake it appears it isn't fully jail broken
Settlement requested Tue 15th Jul 2008 2:34pm PST by mrperfkt[Admin]: I think this meets criteria for Yes.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080715/tc_afp/lifestyleittelecomcompanyapplebrazil
Settlement requested Tue 15th Jul 2008 2:56pm PST by shojun: http://news.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/0,39029678,49298162,00.htm - they have a video, it shows it jail broken. Original reports said it was unlocked as well (Gizmodo) but this shows it is merely jailbroken, but still has to be with O2 or Rogers or AT&T depending on country. However the market in question is the jail broken status, and indeed - this would appear to have been broken here.
Clarified Tue 15th Jul 2008 11:12pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: This is a AFP report that they claim a Brazilian newspaper and Digg (!?) are reporting. They don't link to the original sources. Does anyone have a more reliable settlement source?
Settlement requested Wed 16th Jul 2008 9:20am PST by fijis: http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/07/video-iphone--1.html
Settled as 'Yes' Wed 16th Jul 2008 12:03pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/07/video-iphone--1.html

Suspend date: Mon 21st Jul 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 16th Jul 2008 12:03pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 16th Jul 2008 5:25am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (151)

1 year ago
jwa898 predicted Yes (H$20 at 75%)
1 year ago
wsylvest predicted No (H$100 at 25%)
1 year ago
theib predicted Yes (H$100 at 75%)
1 year ago
sweet_baby_rye predicted Yes (H$200 at 75%)
1 year ago
1derkind predicted Yes (H$100 at 75%)

Comments (12)

  1 warrickt
The v1 iPhone was cracked to support 3rd party applications as well as its use on other networks. With the deployment of the App Store and the new app functionality in v2 then there is no reason to hack it for that. As the pricing and compensation model for Apple has changed significantly I would be v. surprised if Apple have done their damndest to make it uncrackable!
posted 1 year ago
Nigel, are those some SIM friends of yours in the picture?
posted 1 year ago
  3 chris[Admin]
the limitation to apple-approved foreground-only apps, which prevents instant messenger apps as well as Skype still leaves a pretty large userbase which will want to crack it. Apple's attempt at uncrackable will probably be about as effective as their attempted remote control on my awful Mac Mini
posted 1 year ago
if they say it cant be done i promise it will be done, and fast. hackers will just take that as a challenge.
posted 1 year ago
I wasn't sure if the above article settles the market, but have suspended it just in case until Nigel can review. Please feel free to chime in here or in a flag if you think it does/does not settle the market.
posted 1 year ago
I don't think it settles it. A lot of that sort of stuff turns out to be bragging, but it is a website to watch for if/when they put it up for public consumption.
posted 1 year ago
  8 fellcolor
That doesn't settle it at all. IPhone OS 2 also runs on the original IPhone. So it's possible to jailbreak the new firmware, but only on the old IPhone.
posted 1 year ago
  9 erichill
Hey Nigel, re: the <a href="http://thestandard.com/predictions/3g-iphone-jailbroken-within-week">prediction over at The Standard</a>, the high has been as high as 92%, and the low as low as 21%. Right now, it's swinging back up to 61%. Being jailbroken is one thing. Getting it unlocked in a week is another. This prediction has been fluctuating all over the place. It's like a horse race! Thanks for the link. --Eric
posted 1 year ago
  10 fellcolor
Just to clarify further - the iPhone dev team only claims today to have cracked the version 2 OS on the 3G phone. Please note however that the terms of settlement also include "and used on other carriers besides AT&T". Cracking the OS may be required to unlock the phone for other carriers, but it is far from sufficient.
posted 1 year ago
This is a AFP report that they claim a Brazilian newspaper and Digg (!?) are reporting. They don't link to the original sources. Does anyone have a more reliable settlement source?
posted 1 year ago
  12 mrperfkt[Admin]
I've found several sources, but they all seem to say "a brazilian company claims..."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,383201,00.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080715/tc_afp/lifestyleittelecomcompanyapplebrazil_080715175708
posted 1 year ago

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