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Will The 3G iPhone Be Jail Broken Within A Week?

Settled as Yes

The Industry Standard has a great question on whether the 3G iPhone will be broken within a week of it's release. They are currently forecasting 56%, what do Hubdubbers think?

As a sidenote Tom is the most recent victim of Apple fever. He keeps his Mac in a little protective bag and at lunch time drones on about Steve Job's keynote speeches. He's admitted he will be at the front of the line with his sleeping bag and flask of hot tea at the store when they release the 3G iPhone.
 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
75%
No
25%
Activity: H$46,362
Settled as Yes on Wed 16th Jul 1:03pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: The 3G iPhone will be considered jail broken if it is able to have non-Apple approved applications and used on other carriers besides AT&T (although not necessarily using a 3G network).

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Jul 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Wed 16th Jul 1:03pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 16th Jul 6:25am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 28th Jun 2:40pm PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
Suspended Thu 10th Jul 6:24pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Thu 10th Jul 6:24pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: suspending pending review of source: http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/10/that-didnt-take-longiphone-20-os-unlocked/

(I have no idea what jailbroken means.. ) (market suspended)
Unsuspended Mon 14th Jul 4:20pm PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: Apologies, my mistake it appears it isn't fully jail broken
Settlement requested Tue 15th Jul 3:34pm PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]: I think this meets criteria for Yes.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080715/tc_afp/lifestyleittelecomcompanyapplebrazil
Settlement requested Tue 15th Jul 3:56pm PDT by shojun: http://news.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/0,39029678,49298162,00.htm - they have a video, it shows it jail broken. Original reports said it was unlocked as well (Gizmodo) but this shows it is merely jailbroken, but still has to be with O2 or Rogers or AT&T depending on country. However the market in question is the jail broken status, and indeed - this would appear to have been broken here.
Clarified Wed 16th Jul 12:12am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: This is a AFP report that they claim a Brazilian newspaper and Digg (!?) are reporting. They don't link to the original sources. Does anyone have a more reliable settlement source?
Settlement requested Wed 16th Jul 10:20am PDT by fijis: http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/07/video-iphone--1.html
Settled as 'Yes' Wed 16th Jul 1:03pm PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/07/video-iphone--1.html
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: The 3G iPhone will be considered jail broken if it is able to have non-Apple approved applications and used on other carriers besides AT&T (although not necessarily using a 3G network).... read all

 

Predictions (151)

151 predictions

6 weeks ago
jwa898 predicted Yes (H$20 at 75%)
6 weeks ago
wsylvest predicted No (H$100 at 25%)
6 weeks ago
theib predicted Yes (H$100 at 75%)
6 weeks ago
sweet_baby_rye predicted Yes (H$200 at 75%)
6 weeks ago
1derkind predicted Yes (H$100 at 75%)
more

Comments (12)

  1 warrickt
The v1 iPhone was cracked to support 3rd party applications as well as its use on other networks. With the deployment of the App Store and the new app functionality in v2 then there is no reason to hack it for that. As the pricing and compensation model for Apple has changed significantly I would be v. surprised if Apple have done their damndest to make it uncrackable!
posted 8 weeks ago
Nigel, are those some SIM friends of yours in the picture?
posted 8 weeks ago
  3 chris[Admin]
the limitation to apple-approved foreground-only apps, which prevents instant messenger apps as well as Skype still leaves a pretty large userbase which will want to crack it. Apple's attempt at uncrackable will probably be about as effective as their attempted remote control on my awful Mac Mini
posted 8 weeks ago
if they say it cant be done i promise it will be done, and fast. hackers will just take that as a challenge.
posted 8 weeks ago
I wasn't sure if the above article settles the market, but have suspended it just in case until Nigel can review. Please feel free to chime in here or in a flag if you think it does/does not settle the market.
posted 7 weeks ago
I don't think it settles it. A lot of that sort of stuff turns out to be bragging, but it is a website to watch for if/when they put it up for public consumption.
posted 7 weeks ago
  8 fellcolor
That doesn't settle it at all. IPhone OS 2 also runs on the original IPhone. So it's possible to jailbreak the new firmware, but only on the old IPhone.
posted 6 weeks ago
  9 erichill
Hey Nigel, re: the <a href="http://thestandard.com/predictions/3g-iphone-jailbroken-within-week">prediction over at The Standard</a>, the high has been as high as 92%, and the low as low as 21%. Right now, it's swinging back up to 61%. Being jailbroken is one thing. Getting it unlocked in a week is another. This prediction has been fluctuating all over the place. It's like a horse race! Thanks for the link. --Eric
posted 6 weeks ago
  10 fellcolor
Just to clarify further - the iPhone dev team only claims today to have cracked the version 2 OS on the 3G phone. Please note however that the terms of settlement also include "and used on other carriers besides AT&T". Cracking the OS may be required to unlock the phone for other carriers, but it is far from sufficient.
posted 6 weeks ago
This is a AFP report that they claim a Brazilian newspaper and Digg (!?) are reporting. They don't link to the original sources. Does anyone have a more reliable settlement source?
posted 6 weeks ago
  12 mrperfkt[Admin]
I've found several sources, but they all seem to say "a brazilian company claims..."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,383201,00.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080715/tc_afp/lifestyleittelecomcompanyapplebrazil_080715175708
posted 6 weeks ago

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