Created Sat 28th Jun 2008 1:40pm PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

Will The 3G iPhone Be Jail Broken Within A Week?

Settled as Yes

http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/07/video-iphone--1.html

Background:

Background: The Industry Standard has a great question on whether the 3G iPhone will be broken within a week of it's release. They are currently forecasting 56%, what do Hubdubbers think?

As a sidenote Tom is the most recent victim of Apple fever. He keeps his Mac in a little protective bag and at lunch time drones on about Steve Job's keynote speeches. He's admitted he will be at the front of the line with his sleeping bag and flask of hot tea at the store when they release the 3G iPhone.

Settlement details:The 3G iPhone will be considered jail broken if it is able to have non-Apple approved applications and used on other carriers besides AT&T (although not necessarily using a 3G network).

Forecast history %

Yes

75%

25%

Settled as Yes on Wed 16th Jul 2008 12:03pm PST

Activity: H$46,362
Predictions: 151
Comments: 12

Suspend date: Mon 21st Jul 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 16th Jul 2008 12:03pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 16th Jul 2008 5:25am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 28th Jun 2008 1:40pm PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

Suspended Thu 10th Jul 2008 5:24pm PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: Suspended pending settlement

Settlement requested Thu 10th Jul 2008 5:24pm PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: suspending pending review of source: http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/10/that-didnt-take-longiphone-20-os-unlocked/

(I have no idea what jailbroken means.. ) (market suspended)

Unsuspended Mon 14th Jul 2008 3:20pm PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

: Apologies, my mistake it appears it isn't fully jail broken

Settlement requested Tue 15th Jul 2008 2:34pm PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: I think this meets criteria for Yes.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080715/tc_afp/lifestyleittelecomcompanyapplebrazil

Settlement requested Tue 15th Jul 2008 2:56pm PST by

shojun Level 13, Psychic (H$60,776)

: http://news.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/0,39029678,49298162,00.htm - they have a video, it shows it jail broken. Original reports said it was unlocked as well (Gizmodo) but this shows it is merely jailbroken, but still has to be with O2 or Rogers or AT&T depending on country. However the market in question is the jail broken status, and indeed - this would appear to have been broken here.

Clarified Tue 15th Jul 2008 11:12pm PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

: This is a AFP report that they claim a Brazilian newspaper and Digg (!?) are reporting. They don't link to the original sources. Does anyone have a more reliable settlement source?

Settlement requested Wed 16th Jul 2008 9:20am PST by

fijis

: http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/07/video-iphone--1.html

Settled as 'Yes' Wed 16th Jul 2008 12:03pm PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

: http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/07/video-iphone--1.html

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Predictions (151)

1 year ago

jwa898 Level 9, Expert (H$9,397)

predicted Yes (H$20 at 75%)

1 year ago

wsylvest Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,161)

predicted No (H$100 at 25%)

1 year ago

theib

predicted Yes (H$100 at 75%)

1 year ago

sweet_baby_rye Level 11, Legend (H$15,273)

predicted Yes (H$200 at 75%)

1 year ago

1derkind Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,223)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 75%)

Comments (12)

warrickt Level 10, Genius (H$13,152)

The v1 iPhone was cracked to support 3rd party applications as well as its use on other networks. With the deployment of the App Store and the new app functionality in v2 then there is no reason to hack it for that. As the pricing and compensation model for Apple has changed significantly I would be v. surprised if Apple have done their damndest to make it uncrackable!

posted 1 year ago

valornhonor Level 10, Genius (H$11,784)

Nigel, are those some SIM friends of yours in the picture?

posted 1 year ago

chris

the limitation to apple-approved foreground-only apps, which prevents instant messenger apps as well as Skype still leaves a pretty large userbase which will want to crack it. Apple's attempt at uncrackable will probably be about as effective as their attempted remote control on my awful Mac Mini

posted 1 year ago

ironman288 Level 12, Guru (H$37,307)

if they say it cant be done i promise it will be done, and fast. hackers will just take that as a challenge.

posted 1 year ago

tangledweb Level 12, Guru (H$31,375)

http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/10/that-didnt-take-longiphone-20-os-unlocked/

posted 1 year ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

I wasn't sure if the above article settles the market, but have suspended it just in case until Nigel can review. Please feel free to chime in here or in a flag if you think it does/does not settle the market.

posted 1 year ago

tangledweb Level 12, Guru (H$31,375)

I don't think it settles it. A lot of that sort of stuff turns out to be bragging, but it is a website to watch for if/when they put it up for public consumption.

posted 1 year ago

fellcolor Level 15, Seer (H$370,839)

That doesn't settle it at all. IPhone OS 2 also runs on the original IPhone. So it's possible to jailbreak the new firmware, but only on the old IPhone.

posted 1 year ago

erichill Level 1, Newbie (H$952)

Hey Nigel, re: the <a href="http://thestandard.com/predictions/3g-iphone-jailbroken-within-week">prediction over at The Standard</a>, the high has been as high as 92%, and the low as low as 21%. Right now, it's swinging back up to 61%. Being jailbroken is one thing. Getting it unlocked in a week is another. This prediction has been fluctuating all over the place. It's like a horse race! Thanks for the link. --Eric

posted 1 year ago

fellcolor Level 15, Seer (H$370,839)

Just to clarify further - the iPhone dev team only claims today to have cracked the version 2 OS on the 3G phone. Please note however that the terms of settlement also include "and used on other carriers besides AT&T". Cracking the OS may be required to unlock the phone for other carriers, but it is far from sufficient.

posted 1 year ago

nigeleccles [Admin]

This is a AFP report that they claim a Brazilian newspaper and Digg (!?) are reporting. They don't link to the original sources. Does anyone have a more reliable settlement source?

posted 1 year ago

mrperfkt [Admin]

I've found several sources, but they all seem to say "a brazilian company claims..."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,383201,00.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080715/tc_afp/lifestyleittelecomcompanyapplebrazil_080715175708

posted 1 year ago

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