Created Mon 30th Jun 12:02pm PDT by

jenniandboys [Admin]

All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 »

What will be the result of Monday's Gallup Presidential Poll?

Settled as Obama leads by at least 3, 4 or 5 points

Apologies for the incorrect market settlement. As Gallup did state Obama was up by 4 points.
www.gallup.com

Background:

Obama has been gaining ground the last two polls.. but it could just be a temporary bump.

Note: Gallup polls are the result of a 3 day rolling average so the poll released on Monday will be based on surveys taken Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

Obama leads by 9 points or more

Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points

22%

Obama leads by at least 3, 4 or 5 points

70%

Statistical Tie +/- 2 points

McCain leads by 3,4 or 5 points

McCain leads by 6,7 or 8 points

McCain leads by 9 points or more

Activity: H$27,998

Settled as Obama leads by at least 3, 4 or 5 points on Mon 7th Jul 3:18pm PDT

Settlement details: http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx

posted near 1300 on Monday July 7.

If no poll is posted that day for some reason, will be the next released gallup daily poll.

Suspend date: Mon 7th Jul 9:30am PDT

Settlement date: Mon 7th Jul 3:18pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 7th Jul 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama leads by 9 points or more: 5%, Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points: 20%, Obama leads by at least 3, 4 or 5 points: 35%, Statistical Tie +/- 2 points: 25%, McCain leads by 3,4 or 5 points: 5%, McCain leads by 6,7 or 8 points: 5%, McCain leads by 9 points or more: 5%

Action history:

Created Mon 30th Jun 12:02pm PDT by

jenniandboys [Admin]

Suspended Mon 7th Jul 9:30am PDT : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Mon 7th Jul 10:39am PDT by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: Obama +4

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx

Settled as 'McCain leads by 3,4 or 5 points' Mon 7th Jul 1:07pm PDT by

ryanj

: http://www.gallup.com/poll/108673/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-McCain-Four-Points.aspx

Previous action withdrawn Mon 7th Jul 3:11pm PDT by

ryanj

: The market was settled wrong, and is being resettled

Settled as 'Obama leads by at least 3, 4 or 5 points' Mon 7th Jul 3:18pm PDT by

ryanj

: Apologies for the incorrect market settlement. As Gallup did state Obama was up by 4 points.
www.gallup.com

read less

Settlement details: http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx ... read all

Predictions (164)

164 predictions

8 weeks ago

valornhonor [Power User]

predicted Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points (H$50 at 22%)

8 weeks ago

htlsales predicted Obama leads by 6,7 or 8 points (H$20 at 21%)

8 weeks ago

owlcreekobserver predicted Obama leads by at least 3, 4 or 5 points (H$50 at 71%)

8 weeks ago

bulog predicted McCain leads by 3,4 or 5 points (H$20 at 2%)

8 weeks ago

rbrog77 predicted Obama leads by at least 3, 4 or 5 points (H$50 at 72%)

Comments (7)

jenniandboys [Admin]

Sunday: Obama +6
Saturday: Obama +5
Thursday: Obama +4
Wednesday: Obama +2
Tuesday: Obama +5

posted 8 weeks ago

greggles

I believe this was settled incorrectly - it was settled as "McCain leads by 3,4 or 5 points"

But this article from gallup.com says Obama leads by 4%: http://www.gallup.com/poll/108673/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-McCain-Four-Points.aspx

I assume it was just a mistake because the range is correct but the candidate is wrong. Right?

posted 8 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Yes, this was definitely settled incorrectly. It should be fixed soon.

posted 8 weeks ago

buckeyetom

It is Obama by +4. This just proves that we are only human.

posted 8 weeks ago

greggles

Phew - I thought the world was flipped upside down for a minute.

Thanks for the feedback jenniandboys and buckeyetom.

posted 8 weeks ago

ryanj

Hi,
This was a mess up on my end during settlement.The markets now been resettled correctly.

Apologies,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

posted 8 weeks ago

buckeyetom

Thanks for your professionalism ryanj.

posted 8 weeks ago

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