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Will any Chinese Olympic medalist(s) forfeit a medal between Aug & Dec 31 due failed substance test?

Current forecast: 13% chance 7%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 13% likely to happen (down 7% in last 1 day)

To settle for a yes the following sequence of events will occur.

One of more Olympic athletes, competing for China will win an Olympic medal and then between August and December have to give the medal back due to a failed substance test.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/olympics/article4245002.ece


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
13%
No
87%
Activity: H$18,208
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Mon 30th Jun 9pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (29)

29 predictions

3 weeks ago
cognos[Power User] predicted Yes (H$555 at 21%)
3 weeks ago
mikeo7b3 predicted No (H$20 at 80%)
6 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Yes (H$100 at 20%)
8 weeks ago
philphan1 predicted No (H$50 at 80%)
14 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Yes (H$65 at 25%)
more

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