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Will Zimbabwe run a new election this year with Morgan Tsvangirai?

Current forecast: 11% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 11% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Zimbabwe ran a election recently that most of the world considered to be a farce. Currently the US is considering putting embargo's on the country and the African union is considering cutting them out and not recognizing the election. The question is that under all this pressure will Zimbabwe back down?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
11%
No
89%
Activity: H$19,141
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 22%

Action history:

Created Mon 30th Jun 10:24pm PDT by dragonfangxl

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (21)

21 predictions

6 weeks ago
brinkj predicted No (H$100 at 80%)
16 weeks ago
richie_edinburgh predicted Yes (H$20 at 21%)
17 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted No (H$300 at 79%)
18 weeks ago
munirs predicted No (H$100 at 79%)
21 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted No (H$600 at 81%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Be careful with wording a question: "Will X happen or Y" with "YES/NO" answers is quite problematic. The background-info makes it slightly better "will Zimbabwe back down and when" but indicates a prediction about the time frame, which is not possible either.

Will Zimbabwe run a new election this year with Morgan Tsvangirai?
Would do it. I will request an edit to the question accordingly.
posted 22 weeks ago
  2 lesley[Admin]
Edited question title from "Will Zimbabwe run a new election this year with Morgan Tsvangirai or will the old results stand"
posted 22 weeks ago
Thanks for the advice. Im still a little new to hubdub so all the new advice i can get helps
posted 21 weeks ago
My most successful question yet!
posted 21 weeks ago

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