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Will a flying man be prominent in 2 of the top 3 grossing films in 2008?

Current forecast: 75% chance 1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 75% likely to happen (up 1% in last 1 day)

Ironman, Hancock and Batman are all considered flyers for this question.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
75%
No
25%
Activity: H$75,080
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 35%

Action history:

Created Wed 2nd Jul 6:30am PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Clarified Thu 3rd Jul 1:03am PDT by tisha[Admin]: I cannot be certain about the accuracy of the odds for this question either, but I would suggest that they are close enough to be rectified through the normal market process during the course of the year.

Thanks for flagging.
Clarified Sun 3rd Aug 5:51am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: The Dark Knight will count as 'flying' as will Harry Potter w/ broomstick as long as there is such a scene in the movie.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (121)

121 predictions

16 hours ago
chrisfmasse predicted Yes (H$100 at 75%)
19 hours ago
rbrog77 predicted Yes (H$500 at 74%)
1 week ago
kenny_login predicted Yes (H$20 at 74%)
1 week ago
oresshi predicted Yes (H$100 at 74%)
1 week ago
gtown predicted Yes (H$20 at 74%)
more

Comments (28)

harry potter? do we count broomsticking as flying?
posted 21 weeks ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
will there be any Super User acting in films this year?
posted 21 weeks ago
  3 wellebh
Ironman has a suit that lets him fly - Harry Potter has a broomstick that lets him fly. I'd say that HP would be on the 'Yes' side of the settlement.
posted 21 weeks ago
I deliberately left this somewhat vague, I would be fine accepting Harry Potter's broomstick as flying.
posted 21 weeks ago
Ironman and HP, so a yes in my opinion. Very nice question.
posted 21 weeks ago
  6 wellebh
Unless The Dark Knight has some sort of jetpack that allows him to fly, that might be a 'No' up in the top three - I have a feeling that Mr Ledger's posthumous role will boost the numbers a bit.
posted 21 weeks ago
  7 ryanb37
well batman Does fly from one building to another in the film
posted 17 weeks ago
Clarification: The Dark Knight will count as 'flying' as will Harry Potter w/ broomstick as long as there is such a scene in the movie.
posted 17 weeks ago
  9 ryanb37
WOW well Dark knight is a lock and Um right now i belive IRONMAN is 2 or 3 so
Harry potter Is another that will probably have some flying in it I think this
is a sure Yes
posted 15 weeks ago
  10 destry[Admin]
Warner Bros. Pictures, a unit of Time Warner Inc. , said late Thursday it has delayed the release of "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" to July 19, 2009.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/media/warner-bros-delays-harry-potter-half-blood-prince/
posted 15 weeks ago
  11 ryanb37
UPDATE
as of now Dark knight is #1 for 2008 and IronMan is #2 for 2008 I doubt that anything will pass these two.
posted 15 weeks ago
  12 melvster
Is harry potter a man or a boy?
posted 14 weeks ago
@melvster - I'm tempted to make a reference to Daniel's exploits on Broadway as clarification, but instead I'll just say that Harry Potter isn't coming out this year, so it will not effect this question anyway.
posted 14 weeks ago
batman glides. he doesn't fly.

just thought id say it so that we don't get malled by fanboys anytime soon
posted 13 weeks ago
@ robamichael, plz see # 7 & # 8 above.
posted 13 weeks ago
per www.the-numbers.com, CURRENT Top Five for the year are....

1.) The Dark Knight, which will count as flying by previous Q&A above.
2.) Iron Man, who dramatically flies all about.
3.) Indy Jones 4, didn't see it, but I'm guessing all his flying was in planes...
4.) Hancock - flyer.
5.) Wall-E, flew all around the Cosmos, but not under his own power.

That flying thing sure has a lot of appeal huh?
posted 13 weeks ago
@valornhonor

i know, my point was that a fanboy would defend to the death the fact that batman DOES NOT fly.

: P
posted 13 weeks ago
  18 ryanb37
FANBOYS are GAY!
posted 13 weeks ago
Already settled for purposes of THIS market, Batman did fly, if you don't believe me, go ask the flying squirrel and the flying fish, they agreed. ha ha
posted 13 weeks ago
  20 ryanb37
One more thing after batman re captured the guy in china the was picked up by a
airplane and i am sure that it flew!! so he was flying Just to ONE UP THE FANBOYS
posted 13 weeks ago
well if that counts than anybody taking an airplane in a movie should count as a "flying man"

batman glides.
posted 13 weeks ago
  22 ryanb37
not for the purposes of this market BOOOYAAAA
Plus we had this discussion 4 weeks ago catch up there skippy
posted 13 weeks ago
  23 geoff
this is BS, Dark Knight doesn't "fly"
posted 13 weeks ago
  24 ryanb37
Like i said for this market we had this discussion 4 or 5 weeks ago maybe you should have
brought it up then. people make their predictions based on decisions of the admin
it would not be fair to change the criteria 4 weeks later. DEAL WITH IT!! Batman
does Fly!!! by your arguements Iron man doesnt fly his suit does and harry potter
doesnt fly his broom does. again i say FAN BOYS go back to ya mammas basement and
post more blogs about how you want to make love to your Toy collection.
posted 13 weeks ago
@ryan (& others) - Hey now, we're all friends here. There's a very valid argument to be made that Batman doesn't fly and its understandable that someone might want to discuss that. However, yes, for THIS question Batman definitely flies. I'm fine for FRIENDLY disagreement to continue below as long as everyone understands that the market will not change as a result.
posted 13 weeks ago
  26 ryanb37
Ok its fine I just like rippin on fanboys haha its all in fun here!! some of my friends are just the same i just like getting a rise out of them, I am the same way when someone
dogs on a horror film i like ha
posted 12 weeks ago
  27 leucadian
Batman does not fly. He "falls with style."
posted 7 weeks ago
batman can't fly
posted 4 weeks ago

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