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Will The Columbian FARC Announce To Discontinue Their Armed Class Struggle?

Settled as No

Still struggling
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSN0126292920080901

Background:

"We're the national army, you're free."

Colombia frees Ingrid Betancourt from rebels.

Many Colombians believe the end is near for the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), whose ranks are filled with poor peasants resentful of government neglect but who are widely despised for their ransom and political kidnappings and reliance on cocaine trafficking.

In March, co-founder leader Manuel Marulanda died of a reported heart attack, and two other top commanders were killed, one by a turncoat bodyguard.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jJaYKcOF6IpYZDLaJur12Nw69PxQD91MAF1G0
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/05/24/farc.leader/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutionary_Armed_Forces_of_Colombia#Organization_and_structure

Will the FARC announce to discontinue their armed class struggle?

This announcement must be made by an recognized Leader* of the organization

The announcement must be made before the end of August and may not be withdrawn by any of the Leaders* within a time frame of one week before settlement.

* Recognized leaders are listed in the "Leaders" section, within the box on the right on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutionary_Armed_Forces_of_Colombia
Currently listed: Alfonso Cano, Mono Jojoy, Iván Márquez, Joaquín Gómez, Timoleón Jiménez, Mauricio Jaramillo. In case any of these persons decease or are segregated from the organization, the respective successor is to be included.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
3%
No
97%
Activity: H$50,304
Settled as No on Mon 1st Sep 11:26am PDT

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 11:26am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Jul 3:46am PDT by kruijs[Power User]
Suspended Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 1st Sep 7:20am PDT by orlin: There is no such announcement.
Settled as 'No' Mon 1st Sep 11:26am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Still struggling
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSN0126292920080901

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 11:26am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (51)

51 predictions

13 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted No (H$10,000 at 96%)
13 weeks ago
joaoxxx predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
14 weeks ago
hoernla predicted No (H$240 at 95%)
14 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted No (H$500 at 95%)
15 weeks ago
traveled2mars predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
more

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