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Created Thu 3rd Jul 8:32am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]
All questions » World » Americas » 

When will the last of the Gitmo detainees leave Guantanamo?

Current forecast: There are still detainees in Gitmo in March 2009 (55% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is There are still detainees in Gitmo in March 2009 with a probability of 55% (unchanged in last 1 day)

With recent rulings and the presidential election heating up, when will all the detainees at Guantanamo leave, either to be freed or held in other facilities.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25429778/


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

 All detainees are gone by the end of August
2%
All detainees are gone by the end of September
5%
All detainees are gone by the end of October
7%
All detainees are gone by the end of November
5%
All detainees are gone by the end of December
7%
All detainees are gone by the end of January
5%
All detainees are gone by the end of February
14%
There are still detainees in Gitmo in March 2009
55%
Activity: H$3,964
Question suspends in 10 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 15th Feb 2009 11:59pm PST (10 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: All detainees are gone by the end of August: 5%, All detainees are gone by the end of September: 10%, All detainees are gone by the end of October: 15%, All detainees are gone by the end of November: 10%, All detainees are gone by the end of December: 15%, All detainees are gone by the end of January: 10%, All detainees are gone by the end of February: 15%, There are still detainees in Gitmo in March 2009: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Jul 8:32am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]

Suspend date: Sun 15th Feb 2009 11:59pm PST (10 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (20)

20 predictions

1 week ago
ben_hanscombe predicted All detainees are gone by the end of February (H$20 at 13%)
1 week ago
andrewpmk predicted There are still detainees in Gitmo in March 2009 (H$20 at 56%)
3 weeks ago
julesgarrett predicted There are still detainees in Gitmo in March 2009 (H$50 at 56%)
3 weeks ago
julesgarrett predicted There are still detainees in Gitmo in March 2009 (H$30 at 55%)
4 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted There are still detainees in Gitmo in March 2009 (H$1,000 at 50%)
more

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score: 10
Beginning of end for Guantanamo?

BBC 2 days ago
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score: 10
US to return bin Laden driver to Yemen this week: embassy

AFP via Yahoo! 6 days ago
AFP/DoD/File ? Detainees at Camp X-Ray in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. In its final days, President George W. Bush's administration ? WASHINGTON (AFP) ? Osama bin Laden's former driver Salim Hamdan will be returned to Yemen 'this

score: 10
MoJo Video: The Ex-Gitmo Detainee Next Door

Mother Jones 6 days ago
event was most notable for who wasn't there: 17 Uighur men who have been wrongly detained at Guantanamo Bay for nearly seven years. The suburban Virginia Uighurs had hoped the men would attend the festivities after a federal judge in DC ordered the

score: 10
Bin Laden's ex-driver to leave Guantanamo

International Herald Tribune 1 week ago
military is transferring Osama bin Laden's former driver, Salim Hamdan, from the U.S. naval base in Guantanamo Bay to his home country of Yemen, The Washington Post reported in Tuesday's editions, citing two government officials. Hamdan, who won a

score: 10
Guantanamo Detainees To Be Freed

Sky News 1 week ago
Leon made the decision after the first hearings under a landmark Supreme Court ruling in June that gave Guantanamo prisoners the legal right to challenge their continued confinement. He said the US government had failed to prove the five men who had been

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