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Will Tropical Storm Bertha become a hurricane?

Settled as Yes

http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKN0738496720080707

Background:

MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- Tropical Storm Bertha has formed in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa.

At 11 a.m. ET Thursday, the center of the storm was located about 190 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

The second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season is moving toward the west-northwest at about 14 mph, and forecasters expect that to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.

It's still too early to say if or where Bertha will hit land.

The first named storm this year, Arthur, formed in the Atlantic the day before the season officially started June 1 and soaked the Yucatan Peninsula.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/07/03/storm.bertha.ap/index.html
____________

Note: A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74mph. Settlement will be determined by the National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

To settle as No, the NHC will announce that it is no longer tracking Bertha (as it has dissipated).
To settle as Yes, the NHC will declare Bertha to be the 1st hurricane of the season.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
94%
No
6%
Activity: H$166,263
Settled as Yes on Mon 7th Jul 7:35am PDT

Suspend date: Sat 19th Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 7th Jul 7:35am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 7th Jul 1:55am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Jul 1:46pm PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]
Suspended Mon 7th Jul 2:10am PDT by destry[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Mon 7th Jul 2:10am PDT by destry[Admin]: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/070845.shtml? (market suspended)
Settled as 'Yes' Mon 7th Jul 7:35am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKN0738496720080707

Suspend date: Sat 19th Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 7th Jul 7:35am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 7th Jul 1:55am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (64)

64 predictions

21 weeks ago
bobdevine predicted No (H$50 at 9%)
21 weeks ago
iceman predicted Yes (H$700 at 88%)
21 weeks ago
meanderingsearcher predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 93%)
21 weeks ago
meanderingsearcher predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 89%)
21 weeks ago
bobdevine predicted No (H$100 at 14%)
more

Comments (9)

by tuesday 8AM according to the national hurricane center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5day#contents
posted 21 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
Finally all these years living in Florida and being at the center of where Hurricane Charley made landfall, will payoff for these hurricane questions. The NHC really does a great job of keeping people informed.
posted 21 weeks ago
  3 mrperfkt[Admin]
Destry - are you on the west coast of Florida? As much as I like my H$, I hope that the questions pay off...but not at the expense of another busy Florida hurricane season!
posted 21 weeks ago
  4 mrperfkt[Admin]
I love the satelite images that are available through the NHC...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
posted 21 weeks ago
  5 destry[Admin]
Yes. I live in Port Charlotte, Florida, during Hurricane Charley my house was in the eye of the storm for about 10 minutes. It was one of the wildest experiences ever.
posted 21 weeks ago
  7 mrperfkt[Admin]
I certainly remember that year! Charley, Francs, Ivan...all in a row. I'm on the East coast (WPB).

You probably saw this sign...
http://i99.photobucket.com/albums/l310/existentl/4sale.jpg
posted 21 weeks ago
  8 destry[Admin]
Who would have thought that after all these years of studying NHC site and other websites would pay off on these markets.
posted 21 weeks ago
  9 mrperfkt[Admin]
If only we could predict the DOW with such accuracy! :)
posted 21 weeks ago

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