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Will archaeologists discover an artifact related to a myth about George Washington before 2-25-2009?
Current forecast: No announcements made before February 25, 2009 (41% chance
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Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No announcements made before February 25, 2009 with a probability of 41% (unchanged in last 1 day)
On July 2, 2008, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine announced that archaeologists have found the remains of George Washington's boyhood home. However, they have found no evidence of either an axe or a cherry tree stump. The work is ongoing.
Background information: Many myths surround the first US President George Washington. Two of the most popular include chopping down a cherry tree and throwing a coin across the nearby Rappahannock River. When asked about the cherry tree, he allegedly said, "I cannot tell a lie."
The latest announcement was made just before Independence Day. This market is scheduled to settle just after Washington's Birthday. If an announcement is made that an artifact is found, this market will be settled at that point.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-sci-george3-2008jul03,0,4764772.story
http://www.fredericksburg.com/News/FLS/2008/072008/07032008/392137
Background information: Many myths surround the first US President George Washington. Two of the most popular include chopping down a cherry tree and throwing a coin across the nearby Rappahannock River. When asked about the cherry tree, he allegedly said, "I cannot tell a lie."
The latest announcement was made just before Independence Day. This market is scheduled to settle just after Washington's Birthday. If an announcement is made that an artifact is found, this market will be settled at that point.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-sci-george3-2008jul03,0,4764772.story
http://www.fredericksburg.com/News/FLS/2008/072008/07032008/392137
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Artifact found that proves a myth |
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Artifact found that may prove a myth |
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Both of the above |
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More announcements made, no artifacts found |
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No announcements made before February 25, 2009 |
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Activity: H$1,639
Question suspends in 11 weeks
Suspend date: Mon 23rd Feb 2009 9pm PST (11 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Artifact found that proves a myth: 5%, Artifact found that may prove a myth: 10%, Both of the above: 5%, More announcements made, no artifacts found: 40%, No announcements made before February 25, 2009: 40%
Action history:
Created Thu 3rd Jul 4:31pm PDT by onedave
onedave
Suspend date: Mon 23rd Feb 2009 9pm PST (11 weeks to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (13)
13 predictions
doughboy
growthy
mrperfkt![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
predicted No announcements made before February 25, 2009 (H$500 at 39%)
cognos
kruijs
biloxibeachboy
valornhonorComments (0)
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score: 10
MSNBC 1 day ago
the funerals of presidents is filled with mementoes such as funeral bills from the services for FDR and George Washington, a mourning band worn at Abraham Lincoln's burial and the original eternal flame from John F. Kennedy's tomb. The museum's
score: 10
Washington Post 4 days ago
10 to 5:30. Jefferson Drive and 12th Street SW. 202-633-1000 or http://www.asia.si.edu. Free. GEORGE WASHINGTON MASONIC NATIONAL MEMORIAL Collection of George Washington memorabilia. Open daily 9 to 4. 101 Callahan Dr., Alexandria. HILLWOOD The former
score: 10
Washington Post 5 days ago
Farm Park, visitors center, 2709 W. Ox Rd., Herndon. $4; reservations required. 703-437-9101. MOUNT VERNON BY CANDLELIGHT, tour George Washington's home and visit the rarely seen third floor. With fireside caroling and hot cider and cookies. 5-8 p.m.
score: 10
Los Angeles Times 6 days ago
full grisly truth. Unlike many of the apocryphal tales we tell our children about American history, such as George Washington and the cherry tree, the first Thanksgiving actually happened (or at least there's documentary evidence that it did). It was a
score: 10
Boston Globe 1 week ago
are likely to have some. Beginning with: What's Evacuation Day? Answer: Nov. 25, 1783, the day Gen. George Washington and his victorious troops marched down Broadway while the last British redcoats boarded ships in the harbor and sailed away, marking the
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