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Which movie will earn the most by the end of it's 4th week in release? "Hancock, Wanted, and Wall-E"

Settled as Hancock will earn more in 28 days.

$198.17 million ... Hancock
$188.88 million ... Wall-E
$125.88 million ... Wanted

Background:

This question asks, which movie do you think will earn the most money in each of their respective first four full weeks in North American release? Or to put it another way, which OF THESE films after being in release for 28 days, will have the highest Box Office receipts? Example, let's say you think "Wall-E" will earn $161 million in four weeks (28 days of release), "Wanted" will earn $172 million in four weeks (28 days of release), and Hancock will earn $171 million in four weeks (28 days of release). Then you'd want to bet on "Wanted earns the most in 28 dayst." Does this make sense? Plain english would say, which movie will make the most money after 28 days in release?


Settlement details: As reported by www.the-numbers.com or another major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Wanted will earn more in 28 days.
0%
Wall-E will earn more in 28 days.
52%
Hancock will earn more in 28 days.
48%
2 or all of these movies will tie.
0%
Activity: H$48,765
Settled as Hancock will earn more in 28 days. on Sat 26th Jul 9:34am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 11th Jul 5:20pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 26th Jul 9:34am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 11th Jul 5:20pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Wanted will earn more in 28 days.: 30%, Wall-E will earn more in 28 days.: 32%, Hancock will earn more in 28 days.: 37%, 2 or all of these movies will tie.: 1%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Jul 5:31pm PDT by lucidstates
Suspended Fri 11th Jul 5:20pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Fri 25th Jul 5:44pm PDT by pitchedoutsideleg: Hancock.

28 days are up for the other 2 and Hancock is already in front.

http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/today.php
Settlement requested Fri 25th Jul 8:36pm PDT by swilson[Power User]: Per the-numbers.com:
4 (4) Hancock Sony Pictures Action $1,604,021 -1.57% 3,776 $425 $198,170,884 23
5 (5) WALL-E Buena Vista Comedy $1,574,481 -1.90% 3,310 $476 $188,885,990 28

Currently at 28 days, Wall-e has less in box office sales than Hancock (at 23 days) has. Hancock will continue t add to the current lead of approximately 10 Million.
Settled as 'Hancock will earn more in 28 days.' Sat 26th Jul 9:34am PDT by tisha[Admin]: $198.17 million ... Hancock
$188.88 million ... Wall-E
$125.88 million ... Wanted

Suspend date: Fri 11th Jul 5:20pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 26th Jul 9:34am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 11th Jul 5:20pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (111)

111 predictions

18 weeks ago
coolkraft predicted Wall-E will earn more in 28 days. (H$100 at 52%)
18 weeks ago
guibraguim predicted Wall-E will earn more in 28 days. (H$20 at 51%)
18 weeks ago
mistert predicted Wall-E will earn more in 28 days. (H$200 at 39%)
18 weeks ago
vigilante9801 predicted Hancock will earn more in 28 days. (H$100 at 62%)
18 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Hancock will earn more in 28 days. (H$1,000 at 57%)
more

Comments (11)

  1 scott
Good question.... I've started betting on it... let's see what you and Destry do so I can do the opposite :>
posted 19 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
I am in for Wall-E. Scott I suspect you will stick with your favorite movie and wager on Wanted?
posted 19 weeks ago
  3 scott
I guess you will have to wait and see :>

I think this is an easy question.
posted 19 weeks ago
Hehehehe ... This rocks! Thanks guys for participating :-D Should make me very rich, thanks scott, LOL, actually I cannot bet for like another 11 hours :-( But when I can!!! You betta believe it, I will! :-D
Glad you guys like it :-)
posted 19 weeks ago
Yay I finally enter this market ... I have $250 on Hancock, just so everyone knows... Man I could be soooo wrong, but I think Hancock will slightly edge Wall-E after each has been out for 4 weeks.
I see Hancock around like $180 - $190 million after four weeks and Wall-E around $173 - $178 million after four weeks and as for Wanted, I see it around like around $137 - $143 million after four weeks.
BUT I am noooo expert and I've been wrong several weeks in a row as for totals. lol
posted 19 weeks ago
  6 cognos[Power User]
Just saw Hancock yesterday. I was impressed again by Will's acting. He can move from action to comedy to drama and back soooo easily. The "not your average super-hero" theme is very well done. And with the complete twist at the end, this movie will be taking in huge $$$ in 28 days.
posted 19 weeks ago
  7 swilson[Power User]
Have I missed something? Hancock earned 107,321 in 5 days and Wall-E earned 128,132 in 10 days. I would have expected a $5k wager in this market to lose share but not 3,500 in less than an hour. Either I'm going to lose big or win big. I'm contemplating putting another 4k down on Hancock though. This isn't about what movie I liked best, the numbers speak for themselves...
posted 19 weeks ago
  8 destry[Admin]
I think the unknown quantity is how big will the dropoff be. Wall-E is a family movie which should be able to hold market share, while Hancock has big competition so its dropoff could be larger.
posted 19 weeks ago
Well, the estimated returns for this weekend are in and here they are:

#2 ... $33.000 million ... Hancock ... Total: $165.034 million ... 12 days
#4 ... $18.509 million ... WALL-E .... Total: $162.772 million ... 17 days
#5 ... $11.568 million ... Wanted ..... Total: $112.045 million ... 17 days

This looks like it's gonna be good :-D Wall-E and Hancock are really close and both are holding well.
posted 18 weeks ago
Official numbers are in and here is where these 3 films stand:

#1 ... $164,115,004 ... Hancock ... 12 days in release
#2 ... $163,055,900 ... Wall-E ...... 17 days in release
#3 ... $112,455,060 ... Wanted ..... 17 days in release

Wall-E fell 48.47% in its second weekend.
Hancock fell 48.76% in its second weekend.
Wanted fell 60.63% in its second weekend.

I think Wall-E and Hancock are gonna be close, though Hancock already has bunches more to start with.
posted 18 weeks ago
Official numbers are in and here is where these 3 films stand:

#1 ... $174,596,940 ... Hancock ... 15 days in release
#2 ... $170,460,403 ... Wall-E ...... 20 days in release
#3 ... $117,018,600 ... Wanted ..... 20 days in release

I think Hancock is clearly going to win this one now :-D But it should still be within $10 or less...
posted 17 weeks ago

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