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In which continent will the next big natural disaster occur?

Current forecast: None before the end of the year (82% chance1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is None before the end of the year with a probability of 82% (down 1% in last 1 day)

Over the years several new incidents of major world disasters have taken place. To name a few, the earthquake in China, the flooding in central North America, and the cyclone in Myanmar! The question is, where will nature strike next!
In order for it to be qualified as a Big natural disaster there must be at least 10,000 casualty's, and 30,000 people moved from there homes. It must be natural at origin but can be amplified by human error. Aids is not a new natural disaster so it doesn't count. Hubdub staff: I am not sure why you want me to use these new continents considering all the inhabited land mass in the world is included in the 6 i listed prior and since these are the continents we already know however i will include "Oceania" in this updated version


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Make your prediction!

Africa
2%
Asia
7%
Oceania
4%
North America
2%
South America
2%
None before the end of the year
82%
Europe
2%
Activity: H$32,108
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Africa: 17%, Asia: 18%, Oceania: 15%, North America: 10%, South America: 15%, None before the end of the year: 15%, Europe: 10%

Action history:

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (94)

94 predictions

2 days ago
gotmick predicted None before the end of the year (H$500 at 82%)
1 week ago
fellcolor predicted None before the end of the year (H$2,000 at 75%)
3 weeks ago
oppugner predicted None before the end of the year (H$15 at 76%)
3 weeks ago
fellcolor predicted None before the end of the year (H$750 at 74%)
3 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted None before the end of the year (H$250 at 71%)
more

Comments (5)

Asia seems to be the favorite for all disaster predictions
posted 21 weeks ago
  2 curios
Australia is a continent also its not part of Oceania
posted 10 weeks ago
  3 curios
sorry all
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oceania
posted 10 weeks ago
Define big...there is a hurricane of the east coast. I just got my power back from Ike...two weeks later. No more storms this way!
posted 9 weeks ago
  5 destry[Admin]
@thevoiceoftexas_org - The background describes big.
posted 9 weeks ago

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