Will Bertha make landfall on the US Coastline as either a Hurricane or a Tropical Storm?

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/florida/sfl-0705hurricane-bertha,0,969593.story

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5day#contents

Bertha appears to be headed out to sea.

landfall anywhere north of north carolina is a safe bet

THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...BUT STILL REMAINS
WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 18.1N 47.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 18.7N 49.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 19.5N 52.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 20.2N 54.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 20.9N 56.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 23.0N 60.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 26.0N 64.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 65.5W 70 KT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/062057.shtml?

Here is a link showing its movement away from the mainland.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200802_5day.html#a_topad

here is a link taking aim at the eastern seaboard

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205713.shtml?tswind120#contents

@meanderingsearcher, where in the world are you located? Are you familar with tracking hurricanes?

everybody gotta have a hobby, severe weather calculations and prediction happens to be one of the many that i return to in moments of boredom

@destry- i was reading a blog the other day about the odds of new york city taking a direct hit from a hurricane and how it is long over due...the current weather systems in western canada will be hitting the east coast about the time that bertha passes bermuda.. the intense low pressure from these storms will pull bertha into the eastern seaboard... the question is where. this scenario does not include the havoc that is going to happen between alberta and the east coast!

@destry
an established and predicable pattern
Alberta- we get a storm watch/warning and a 10 minute thunder storm
Manitoba/Minnisota- within 36 hours will get tornado warning and a 2-6 hour rip-roaring thunderstorm
Lower Great Lakes- within 24 hours will get same as MB/MI only more islolated and more severe

if current storms in alberta slides east-northeast from great lakes basin there will be a slip-steam vacume that will draw bertha to the left on the map

but now i am meandering.... should go back to searching now

@meanderingsearcher - good points. I think a gut feeling about looking at this track seems to indicate this storm will pull the same track many do this time of year. I am looking at alot of models, but you make some points. Seems this storm is going to slow down so we can continue this conversation.
Here is 11pm link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023413.shtml?5day?large#contents

okay.... one more, better defined graphic. this one shows new york as a possible hit

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/023413.shtml?hwind120#contents

your link shows hurricane status by monday 8pm now and i only have one h$ dollar left!

Yeah the latest discussion I read said it was getting better organized, it still shows it topping out at Cat 1 storm, but all the indication is that this one is going to head north, then do that famous north east movement to nowhere... I think they are worried about shear and that is why not showing it intensifying more than Cat. 1.

5 am. Curving more toward open water. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200802_5day.html#a_topad

Latest update shows an almost due north heading at day 5. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143313.shtml?5day#contents

Latest update, the curve is more defined now. Landfall on US coastline looks remote at best. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/203514.shtml?5day#contents

looking like nova scotia or newfoundland... too bad the question on a canadian landfall got voided

You can see at this link that this one will probably end up in no mans land and landfall unlikely. http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/02LSPAG.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144115.shtml?5day#contents

THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND SSTS INCREASE SO THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE RE-INTENSIFICATION.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/081440.shtml