orlin
Will Michael Phelps beat or equal Mark Spitz's Olympic record in Beijing?
By 1/100th of a second!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/16/sports/olympics/16swim.html
Background:
Former rival, Ian Thorpe, doesn't think it can be done: "I don't think anyone will win eight but if there is any person on the planet that can, it's Michael Phelps," Thorpe told Reuters on Monday.
Source
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| Yes |
| |||
| No |
|
- Activity: H$195,711 |
- Predictions: 279 |
Comments: 15
Suspend date: Thu 14th Aug 2008 7:59am PST
Settlement date: Fri 15th Aug 2008 7:10pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 14th Aug 2008 7:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%
Action history:
orlin 
nigeleccles![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Suspend date moved out to midnight of August 14th 
newswrangler![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
: Winning prediction = "Yes"
" Phelps' ninth career Olympic gold medal moved him into a five-way tie with U.S. swimming great Mark Spitz, American track and field star Carl Lewis, former Soviet gymnast Larissa Latynina and Finnish runner Paavo Nurmi for the all-time record."
<http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=olymp/news/news.aspx?id=4171068>
Predictions should be back-voided to the start of the Men's 200-meter freestyle on Tuesday (check schedule for exact time). (market suspended)
nigeleccles: Ranburg is right here. We are only counting medals won in Beijing. 
mrperfkt: Pending settlement details. He broke Spitz's record. 
jenniandboys: Settles on number of golds THIS Olympics. At least 2 more to go. 
pitchedoutsideleg
: Yes - now 7 gold
http://results.beijing2008.cn/WRM/ENG/BIO/Athlete/5/221565.shtml
jenniandboys: By 1/100th of a second!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/16/sports/olympics/16swim.html
Suspend date: Thu 14th Aug 2008 7:59am PST
Settlement date: Fri 15th Aug 2008 7:10pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 14th Aug 2008 7:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (279)
predicted Yes (H$20 at 93%)
spurt34
predicted No (H$100 at 7%)
predicted Yes (H$50 at 94%)Comments (15)
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update from SI on Phelps
http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/summer08/swimming/news/story?id=3528865
Suspended, unsuspended, suspended, unsusp... Nobody reads what it states.
As a creator, I repeat: question asks will M.Phelps win 7 or 8 golds in this Olympics.
Not all gold medals from all his olympic participations, but only from this Olympic games.
This does not yet happened. He had won already only 5 golds. There are at least 2 more to win for question to be settled as "yes".
The record of Marc Spitz from Munich Olympics back in 1972 is 7 gold medals in ONE Olympic competition. To equal it means to win also 7 golds. To beat - is 8 golds in THIS Olympic games.
This market settles on whether he gets 7 or 8 Gold Medals THIS Olympics. He has 5 right now and 3 more races to go.
I'm guilty of the suspends. I was watching live last night and just trying to stay on top of it while looking at a misleading stat.
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