Created Sun 6th Jul 3:20am PDT by

Will Michael Phelps beat or equal Mark Spitz's Olympic record in Beijing?

Settled as Yes

By 1/100th of a second!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/16/sports/olympics/16swim.html

Background:

Phelps added to his wins at the U.S. swimming trials in the 200 and 400 individual medleys, 200 freestyle, 100 and 200 butterfly. He's also expected to swim all three relays, giving him another shot at Spitz's record of seven gold medals at the 1972 Munich Games. Phelps just missed in 2004, winning six golds and two bronzes.

Former rival, Ian Thorpe, doesn't think it can be done: "I don't think anyone will win eight but if there is any person on the planet that can, it's Michael Phelps," Thorpe told Reuters on Monday.
Source

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

Yes

93%

Activity: H$195,711

Settled as Yes on Fri 15th Aug 8:10pm PDT

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Thu 14th Aug 8:59am PDT

Settlement date: Fri 15th Aug 8:10pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 14th Aug 8:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Sun 6th Jul 3:20am PDT by

orlin

Suspended Mon 11th Aug 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached

Unsuspended Mon 11th Aug 4:44am PDT by

nigeleccles [Admin]

: Suspend date moved out to midnight of August 14th

Suspended Mon 11th Aug 9:23pm PDT by

newswrangler [Power User]

: Suspended pending settlement

Settlement requested Mon 11th Aug 9:23pm PDT by

newswrangler [Power User]

: Winning prediction = "Yes"

" Phelps' ninth career Olympic gold medal moved him into a five-way tie with U.S. swimming great Mark Spitz, American track and field star Carl Lewis, former Soviet gymnast Larissa Latynina and Finnish runner Paavo Nurmi for the all-time record."

<http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=olymp/news/news.aspx?id=4171068>

Predictions should be back-voided to the start of the Men's 200-meter freestyle on Tuesday (check schedule for exact time). (market suspended)

Clarified Tue 12th Aug 4:01am PDT by

nigeleccles [Admin]

: Ranburg is right here. We are only counting medals won in Beijing.

Unsuspended Tue 12th Aug 5:07am PDT by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: not ready to be settled

Suspended Tue 12th Aug 7:27pm PDT by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: Suspended pending settlement.

Unsuspended Tue 12th Aug 7:34pm PDT by

mrperfkt [Admin]

Suspended Tue 12th Aug 8:30pm PDT by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: Pending settlement details. He broke Spitz's record.

Unsuspended Wed 13th Aug 4:35am PDT by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: Settles on number of golds THIS Olympics. At least 2 more to go.

Suspended Thu 14th Aug 8:59am PDT : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 15th Aug 7:38pm PDT by

pitchedoutsideleg: Yes - now 7 gold

http://results.beijing2008.cn/WRM/ENG/BIO/Athlete/5/221565.shtml

Settled as 'Yes' Fri 15th Aug 8:10pm PDT by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: By 1/100th of a second!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/16/sports/olympics/16swim.html

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Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

Predictions (279)

279 predictions

3 weeks ago

mbeeteen predicted Yes (H$20 at 93%)

3 weeks ago

spurt34 predicted No (H$100 at 7%)

3 weeks ago

spurt34 predicted No (H$20 at 6%)

3 weeks ago

dr42 predicted Yes (H$50 at 94%)

3 weeks ago

decyple predicted No (H$20 at 6%)

Comments (15)

coolkraft

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25396030/

posted 8 weeks ago

coolkraft

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/olympics/2008/writers/kelli_anderson/08/01/wilft/index.html?eref=T1

update from SI on Phelps

posted 4 weeks ago

coolkraft

http://www.reuters.com/article/sportsNews/idUSN1935785920080802

posted 4 weeks ago

coolkraft

looking good

http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/summer08/swimming/news/story?id=3528865

posted 3 weeks ago

randburg

The question clearly indicates that Phelps must win 7 gold medals at ONE olympic games to match Mark Spitz' record. The history states that he nearly missed at the last Olympics. SOMEBODY is trying to settle this question as CUMULATIVE gold medals, which is not what the question asks.

posted 3 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

market has been reopened

posted 3 weeks ago

richie_edinburgh

I guess some people were putting a lot on "yes" on the basis that it was cumulative. Oops

posted 3 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

If it had been cumulative, what about the starting odds?

posted 3 weeks ago

theonecalledmichael

it obviously was not, though, because it would not have beaten or equaled his record

posted 3 weeks ago

orlin

Poor, poor question :)
Suspended, unsuspended, suspended, unsusp... Nobody reads what it states.
As a creator, I repeat: question asks will M.Phelps win 7 or 8 golds in this Olympics.
Not all gold medals from all his olympic participations, but only from this Olympic games.
This does not yet happened. He had won already only 5 golds. There are at least 2 more to win for question to be settled as "yes".
The record of Marc Spitz from Munich Olympics back in 1972 is 7 gold medals in ONE Olympic competition. To equal it means to win also 7 golds. To beat - is 8 golds in THIS Olympic games.

posted 3 weeks ago

richie_edinburgh

Suspended again? By my reckoning, he still only has five. What's going on?

posted 3 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Opened again. Our team will huddle on this question and get our stories straight.. Sorry for the confusion, we're just all so excited about Phelps!

This market settles on whether he gets 7 or 8 Gold Medals THIS Olympics. He has 5 right now and 3 more races to go.

posted 3 weeks ago

mrperfkt [Admin]

Sorry Orlin!
I'm guilty of the suspends. I was watching live last night and just trying to stay on top of it while looking at a misleading stat.

posted 3 weeks ago