Will a Cat. 4 or 5 Hurricane make landfall north of North Carolina before November?

Since 1938 6 Hurricanes have made landfall north of North Carolina. This said numerous tropical storms and depressions have hit above the North Carolina border. No records exist that prove a Cat. 4 or 5 Hurricane has ever struck above North Carolina.

The 6 Hurricanes that struck were:
The Great 1938 Hurricane, North Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, Carol of 1954, Edna of 1954, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991


All of these storms hit between Virginia and Massachusetts (No Hurricane has ever hit north of Massachusetts). The 1938 Hurricane nicknamed the Long Island Express was the costliest Hurricane in US history.

Most hurricanes striking between Virgina and Massachusetts approach from similar paths. They often originate off the African west coast, or in the far eastern tropical Atlantic. If a Hurricane passes to the north of Puerto Rico, and to the east of the Bahamas, it is historically a high risk to the upper Atlantic coast.

"Most of the major hurricanes to strike the northeast coast were moving at greater than 30-mph at landfall. The combination of wind speed and forward motion - increases the destructive potential of the wind and ocean surge on the right hand side of the storm. This is a critical and especially dangerous aspect of hurricanes that strike this region. Eastern Long Island, eastern Connecticut, and Rhode Island have suffered very heavy wind and storm surge damages several times since 1900. The period from 1938 to 1960 were very active in the north Atlantic states - four major hurricanes struck in just 22 years. Since 1991 (Bob) - there has not been a hurricane landfall in the north Atlantic states."

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