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Will the weather disturbance known as "Bertha" make landfall anywhere in Canada?

Voided

The initial odds for this are off as destry pointed out. A Hurricaine or Tropical Storm hitting Canada, while not unheard of is extremely unlikely.

Background:

Bertha must still be rated as a tropical storm or hurricane when it makes landfall to count as a "yes"


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

Yes
49%
No
51%
Voided Mon 7th Jul 7:38am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 15th Jul 12:59am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 49%

Action history:

Created Sun 6th Jul 6:45pm PDT by meanderingsearcher
Voided Mon 7th Jul 7:38am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: The initial odds for this are off as destry pointed out. A Hurricaine or Tropical Storm hitting Canada, while not unheard of is extremely unlikely.

Suspend date: Tue 15th Jul 12:59am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (9)

9 predictions

21 weeks ago
aland predicted No (H$20 at 81%)
21 weeks ago
jack_t predicted No (H$100 at 81%)
21 weeks ago
toejam predicted No (H$100 at 71%)
21 weeks ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted No (H$200 at 51%)

Comments (4)

The east coast of canada has been on the radar or hit by the following
2007
TS Barry
TS Chantel
TS Noel
2006
TS Alberto
TS Debbie
TS Florence
TS Helene
Hurricane Issac
2005
TS Franklin
TS Harvey
Hurricane Irene
TS Lee
Hurricane Maria
and more but i don't have the time to complete a list as it would be just another example of absolutely useless information

and now that i've finished my coffee and smoke , i got to get back to work....interesting how this question got voided as "highly unlikely"
posted 20 weeks ago
i stand corrected, the action history says that it is "extremely unlikely"
posted 20 weeks ago
  3 destry[Admin]
The part that seems to be missing in your analysis is that the background of the question states Bertha must still be rated as a tropical storm or hurricane when it makes landfall to count as a "yes", those storms you mentioned for 2007 all were extratropical at the time of landfall in canada and none of them would settle this market as a yes. I am sure with extra research it could be shown that the likelihoods were extremely unlikely to occur at the percentages this market started out at. For information on past storms visit www.nhc.noaa.gov
posted 20 weeks ago
  4 ryanj[Admin]
Hi,

The last report I read prior to voiding stated that the storm would probably dissipate after Bermuda. It's not that it can't happen but that so early in the game 50/50 odds aren't accurate.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 20 weeks ago

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