How much will Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince make in it's open weekend?

I'm assuming this is worldwide since it's not stated otherwise.

US boxoffice should always be assumed unless otherwise stated.

Historically:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=harrypotter.htm

3 day US weekend... No way it'll top $100 million ... I see it opening anywhere from $80 - $88 million and HSX.com is predicting $75.5 million opening 3 day North American weekend.

If it ends up at $100 million, then how will the Q be settled?

My common sense reading of this is that 75 - 100 million would win if the box office was between 75,000,000 and 99,999,999.99, and then 100 - 125 would be 100,000,000.00 to 124,999,999.99.

HSX has to be wrong, the first HP movie post the finish of the series will NOT be the lowest earning opening weekend yet.

quick note: The rules concerning movie earnings are this:

2.3.3.1 US Movie Box Office

* The question will be settled using data compiled and published by Nielson EDI for that period.
* General release is defined as having been released in at least 650 theatres domestically (USA & Canada).
* For questions regarding opening weekend box office takings, questions will be suspended at 5pm PST on the Friday. Any predictions made after that point will be voided.
* "Opening weekend" will run from Friday to Sunday
* If the opening weekend for a specified movie falls on a holiday weekend the outcomes for a question regarding opening weekend will be calculated using this extended weekend unless otherwise stated.


None of the actual points say that a question is automatically US only numbers unless otherwise stated, yet the subtitle on the category is "2.3.3.1 US Movie Box Office"

It seems there are no rules regarding international or worldwide movie questions. I think if the area is not specified it would make more sense to include all areas, seeing as this is an international website (i thought it was at least) and limit it only to one area when specifically requested by the question creator. The reason this works better, as opposed to the current setup which is the opposite, is becuase a new user (or anyone who hasn't studied the rules with a magnifying glass) could reasonably assume their is no restriction not stated by the question creator, such as limiting sales to one area only.

Destry is correct - the creator has obviously not intended to create an overlap, but rather create mutually exclusive outcomes covering a set period. So if the outcome is 100 Million, then the option '100 Million to 125 Million' will be the winning one.

The official trailer's out and embedded above! What do you guys think?

I think I can't wait for this movie to come out!

Here are the past results. I would of thought #5 would of been higher - book was really good (except that one part) =(
#5 - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $77,108,414
#4 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $102,685,961
#3 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $93,687,367
#2 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $88,357,488
#1 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $90,294,621

I read today that J.K. Rowling is releasing The Tales of Beedle the Bard.

The release date has been pushed back to next summer! Sigh, no Harry Potter this year. The suspend date has been moved back until July 17 (the new release date) and this market has become much more long term!

oh my, that pretty well ruins my stance in that highest earning genre this year market!

Well, given that it's not opening against much of anything--a lightweight rom-com, and the second week of the comedy Bruno--HPATHBP should do well. Then again, Harry's book-reading fans have grown up and are now as old as Harry, and it's not cool for college-age people to be watching "kiddie" fare. I'd put it at around $100 million; if it doesn't book at least that much, studio execs will be, er, disappointed...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=ak_w4YsXK28E

4 stars

Movie was done VERY well!!!! Midnight shows were sold out last night

LOVED IT!! Going for the gold [ yellow line :) ]

Since this is not a holiday weekend, "opening weekend" runs Friday-Sunday, yes?

Hmm... that would make my bets weird, as I am counting on devoted fans who've seen it today or tomorrow (if they didn't go midnight this morning!).

I just heard on the news that supposedly it broke a new recored for a midnight show - 22 million! WOW!!

Yes, this market refers to *3-DAY* totals. Which will definitely impact betting since so many die hards take the time to see it during the first two days it comes out but prior to our bean counting. The real question then becomes -- will they see it again?

Maybe a five day total would be better for movies starting wednesday?
HP 6 (as Transformers 2) is hard to predict due to the 70-100 million people who see the movie on wedenesday and thursday.
Ice Age had a tough weekend too with nice 5 day totals.

I think the 3 day total is more challenging with movies that start earlier in the week. Like Jenni inferred, you have to really take into account the repeat viewers and how word of mouth affects the next few days.

Guys, i cashed out everything. I just came back from the movie and it is the worst movie ever!!!!
They totally ruined it! I didn't read the books yet i felt this long movie could, and should, have been 20 minutes and not a minute more. Frienwho actuallyead the books are even more pissed off than i am. This movie des not deserve a hubdub question.
By far the worst movie I'v seen in the last ten years...

I haven't seen the film yet, but my kids have. And they loved it.

whoa. An interesting opinion(29), but definitely not mine. I read the book, reread right before the movie, and then again after I saw it to do a comparison. Yes, there were characters and events missing. And there was a point in the movie when I felt it was long. But then it pulled me right back and I was totally absorbed in the tale. I do think it will be a strong winner. I am sorry Gila didn't enjoy it.

@giladbarkai intersting opinion. I fear a very similar reaction to the movie because everything I read about the movie enforces negative expectations and IMO the book is the worst of the series. In two weeks I will watch HP6. Without the HP label I woudn´t watch a movie with a plot like that.

Just hoping that HP6 won´t endanger my huge "Transformer for summer Blockbuster" bets. (HP6 11 million down after two days)

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/reviews/2009-07-13-half-blood-prince_N.htm

different opinion

Early weekend estimate
http://www.boxofficeguru.com/071809.htm

79,475,000 (estimate)
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=harrypotter6.htm
That was close.