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How much will Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince make in it's open weekend?

Current forecast: From 100 Million to 125 Million (38% chance8%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is From 100 Million to 125 Million with a probability of 38% (down 8% in last 1 day)

Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince is destined to be a big success. But how much of one? You decide.

Question refers to US box office totals, as reported on http://www.imdb.com/

 
% chance over time
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Make your prediction!

Less Than 75 Million
3%
From 75 Million to 100 Million
27%
From 100 Million to 125 Million
38%
Over 125 Million
32%
Activity: H$57,995
Question suspends in 47 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Fri 17th Jul 2009 5pm PDT (47 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Less Than 75 Million: 10%, From 75 Million to 100 Million: 30%, From 100 Million to 125 Million: 40%, Over 125 Million: 20%

Action history:

Created Sun 6th Jul 8:06pm PDT by skins
Suspended last Thursday 5:11pm PDT by destry[Admin]: Flagged by admin: The opening of this movie has been moved to July of 2009.
http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080814/D92I94186.html
Unsuspended last Thursday 8:05pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Market edited and unsuspended
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions

1 day ago
krups predicted From 100 Million to 125 Million (H$50 at 46%)
1 day ago
er_lover predicted From 100 Million to 125 Million (H$20 at 45%)
3 days ago
vanhout predicted From 100 Million to 125 Million (H$20 at 57%)
4 days ago
wandaoleary predicted From 100 Million to 125 Million (H$1,000 at 53%)
4 days ago
wandaoleary predicted From 75 Million to 100 Million (H$500 at 24%)
more

Comments

I'm assuming this is worldwide since it's not stated otherwise.
posted 6 weeks ago
US boxoffice should always be assumed unless otherwise stated.
posted 6 weeks ago
3 day US weekend... No way it'll top $100 million ... I see it opening anywhere from $80 - $88 million and HSX.com is predicting $75.5 million opening 3 day North American weekend.
posted 6 weeks ago
If it ends up at $100 million, then how will the Q be settled?
posted 6 weeks ago
  6 destry[Admin]
My common sense reading of this is that 75 - 100 million would win if the box office was between 75,000,000 and 99,999,999.99, and then 100 - 125 would be 100,000,000.00 to 124,999,999.99.
posted 6 weeks ago
HSX has to be wrong, the first HP movie post the finish of the series will NOT be the lowest earning opening weekend yet.
posted 6 weeks ago
quick note: The rules concerning movie earnings are this:

2.3.3.1 US Movie Box Office

* The question will be settled using data compiled and published by Nielson EDI for that period.
* General release is defined as having been released in at least 650 theatres domestically (USA & Canada).
* For questions regarding opening weekend box office takings, questions will be suspended at 5pm PST on the Friday. Any predictions made after that point will be voided.
* "Opening weekend" will run from Friday to Sunday
* If the opening weekend for a specified movie falls on a holiday weekend the outcomes for a question regarding opening weekend will be calculated using this extended weekend unless otherwise stated.


None of the actual points say that a question is automatically US only numbers unless otherwise stated, yet the subtitle on the category is "2.3.3.1 US Movie Box Office"

It seems there are no rules regarding international or worldwide movie questions. I think if the area is not specified it would make more sense to include all areas, seeing as this is an international website (i thought it was at least) and limit it only to one area when specifically requested by the question creator. The reason this works better, as opposed to the current setup which is the opposite, is becuase a new user (or anyone who hasn't studied the rules with a magnifying glass) could reasonably assume their is no restriction not stated by the question creator, such as limiting sales to one area only.
posted 6 weeks ago
  9 tisha[Admin]
Destry is correct - the creator has obviously not intended to create an overlap, but rather create mutually exclusive outcomes covering a set period. So if the outcome is 100 Million, then the option '100 Million to 125 Million' will be the winning one.
posted 6 weeks ago
  10 tisha[Admin]
The official trailer's out and embedded above! What do you guys think?
posted 2 weeks ago
I think I can't wait for this movie to come out!
posted 2 weeks ago
  12 lvnmom22
Here are the past results. I would of thought #5 would of been higher - book was really good (except that one part) =(
#5 - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $77,108,414
#4 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $102,685,961
#3 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $93,687,367
#2 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $88,357,488
#1 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone $90,294,621
posted 2 weeks ago
  13 destry[Admin]
I read today that J.K. Rowling is releasing The Tales of Beedle the Bard.
posted 2 weeks ago
The release date has been pushed back to next summer! Sigh, no Harry Potter this year. The suspend date has been moved back until July 17 (the new release date) and this market has become much more long term!
posted 5 days ago
  15 ironman288
oh my, that pretty well ruins my stance in that highest earning genre this year market!
posted 5 days ago

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