Created Mon 7th Jul 12:14am PDT by curios

All questions » World » Asia » 

Will the Chinese acknowledge the death toll from the earthquake exceeds 75000?

This one took a long time to decide. The issue was that the official death toll has not yet passed 70,000. However, on Sept 3,2008, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told reporters covering a visit to the affected region that the confirmed death toll was over 80,000. Asked about the official death toll, he replied that this number would be updated in time.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080903/wl_asia_afp/chinaquakewen_080903144109

So the difficulty was in deciding whether this statement was more definitive than the official death toll. Because of the vast power of the office of Premier within the Chinese state, I have ruled that his statement meets the requirements for this question settling as Yes.

Background:

Will the Chinese acknowledge the death toll from the earthquake exceeds 75000?

    Yes

Zoom out

Forecast history, %

   Zoom in

Settled

	Yes	63%
	No	37%

Activity: H$6,921

Settled as Yes on Wed 1st Oct 11:45pm PDT

All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Settlement date will be end of 2008.

Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 11:59pm PST (11 weeks to go)

Settlement date: Wed 1st Oct 11:45pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 3rd Sep 7:40am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Mon 7th Jul 12:14am PDT by curios

Clarified Tue 5th Aug 7:48pm PDT by infernalmachine: show details

Figures for Missing don't count in the Death Toll. Must be an official news release or figure from the Chinese Government.

Settlement requested Sun 21st Sep 5:45am PDT by curios: show details

please settle you cannot have all those missing are not dead

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-09/21/content_10085383.htm

Settlement requested Sun 21st Sep 6:42pm PDT by curios: show details

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080903/wl_asia_afp/chinaquakewen_080903144109

Suspended Sun 21st Sep 8:17pm PDT by infernalmachine: Suspended pending possible settlement.

Settled as 'Yes' Wed 1st Oct 11:45pm PDT by infernalmachine: show details

This one took a long time to decide. The issue was that the official death toll has not yet passed 70,000. However, on Sept 3,2008, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told reporters covering a visit to the affected region that the confirmed death toll was over 80,000. Asked about the official death toll, he replied that this number would be updated in time.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080903/wl_asia_afp/chinaquakewen_080903144109

So the difficulty was in deciding whether this statement was more definitive than the official death toll. Because of the vast power of the office of Premier within the Chinese state, I have ruled that his statement meets the requirements for this question settling as Yes.

read less

All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Settlement date will be end of 2008.... read all

Predictions (15)

15 predictions

4 weeks ago

bout3fitty predicted No (H$400 at 38%)

4 weeks ago

yongke_yu predicted No (H$100 at 37%)

6 weeks ago

pepe predicted No (H$5 at 36%)

8 weeks ago

whtimo predicted Yes (H$500 at 63%)

9 weeks ago

leeangelo predicted Yes (H$40 at 66%)

more

4 weeks ago

bout3fitty predicted No (H$400 at 38%)

4 weeks ago

yongke_yu predicted No (H$100 at 37%)

6 weeks ago

pepe predicted No (H$5 at 36%)

8 weeks ago

whtimo predicted Yes (H$500 at 63%)

9 weeks ago

leeangelo predicted Yes (H$40 at 66%)

13 weeks ago

curios predicted Yes (H$200 at 65%)

13 weeks ago

curios predicted Yes (H$400 at 63%)

13 weeks ago

corry20 predicted No (H$20 at 37%)

13 weeks ago

coolkraft predicted Yes (H$100 at 63%)

13 weeks ago

mrperfkt predicted Yes (H$750 at 62%)

13 weeks ago

kruijs predicted Yes (H$300 at 60%)

Showing recent public predictions only

less

Comments (3)

  1 infernalmachine

To be clear here: This question will only settle as Yes if the Chinese Government (by the end of 2008) announces that more than 75,000 have died. Numbers for Missing, or Missing Presumed Dead don't count in this total. This question is as much about the workings of Bejing's release of relevant information as it is about the actual death toll.

posted 9 weeks ago

  2 dieseldog

wasn't this already settled awhile back. i remeber lots of questions on the death toll from the quake in china. wonder what the source was for them questions? my memory is as long as my elbow...maybe this question wasn't covered back then.

posted 9 weeks ago

  3 curios

yhttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-09/21/content_10085383.htmou cannot have all those number dead and missing and the missing not be dead after all this time

posted 2 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment