Created Mon 7th Jul 2:09am PDT by 
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When Will FriendFeed Have More Unique Visitors Than Twitter?
Current forecast: 2012+ or never (43% chance
1%)
1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 2012+ or never with a probability of 43% (up 1% in last 1 day)
Twitter is currently the daddy of the micro-blogging/social sharing space with 1.7 million monthly unique US visitors in May according to Compete. Growth has been rocketing with the number of uniques rocketing in the past 6 months. However growth has brought problems of frequent downtime.
Frustration with Twitter has led a number of bloggers to look for alternatives. Some bloggers are now claiming that FriendFeed will become the Twitter killer. A great product coupled with fast development cycles and good uptime means have resulted in fast growth with FriendFeed achieving 300,000 uniques within 3 months of launch.
Some tech innovators manage to overcome early scaling problems to go on to build highly successful companies (e.g. eBay). Others, like Friendster, blaze the trail only to see competitors surpass them and take the main prize. Will Twitter become the Friendster of micro-blogging?
(Follow me on Twitter here)
Frustration with Twitter has led a number of bloggers to look for alternatives. Some bloggers are now claiming that FriendFeed will become the Twitter killer. A great product coupled with fast development cycles and good uptime means have resulted in fast growth with FriendFeed achieving 300,000 uniques within 3 months of launch.
Some tech innovators manage to overcome early scaling problems to go on to build highly successful companies (e.g. eBay). Others, like Friendster, blaze the trail only to see competitors surpass them and take the main prize. Will Twitter become the Friendster of micro-blogging?
(Follow me on Twitter here)
Settlement details:
As reported by Compete.
Make your prediction!
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2012+ or never |
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Activity: H$2,941
Question suspends in 3 years
Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 11:59pm PST (3 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: 2008: 1%, 2009: 10%, 2010: 25%, 2011: 15%, 2012+ or never: 49%
Action history:
Created Mon 7th Jul 2:09am PDT by nigeleccles
nigeleccles
Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 11:59pm PST (3 years to go)
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Get widget!Predictions (30)
30 predictions
iknowwhatismyname
ollieparsley
evanp
albertwenger
fredwilson
andrew
ryanj
cognos![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted 2010 (H$100 at 20%)
mystienymph
biloxibeachboy
anaverageamerican
warrickt
punditpete
robuk
tomgComments (0)
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I think we should make this into a Facebook game. It's fun.
tomg
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