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Craigslist v eBay: When Will Craigslist Triumph?

Background: Andrew Chen notes that eBay's unique visitors has declined by 11.6% in the past year whereas Craigslist has grown by 76%. Projecting out those current trends would mean that Craigslist would pass eBay within a year.

Is eBay a spent force? Sales on-line have increasingly moved to fixed price and eBay has introduced a number of controversial changes which have caused unrest among their sellers. Additionally, Craigslist and eBay are currently locked in a legal battle over eBay's stake in Craigslist.

Settlement details:As reported by Compete for People Count. (Compete records US visitors only).

 
Forecast history %
2008
4%
2009
34%
2010
25%
2011+ or never
37%
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: 2008: 1%, 2009: 39%, 2010: 30%, 2011+ or never: 30%

Action history:

Created Mon 7th Jul 2008 2:41am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go) details

 

Predictions (33)

9 weeks ago
jeremiahstover predicted 2011+ or never (H$100 at 36%)
22 weeks ago
cydefect predicted 2011+ or never (H$20 at 35%)
22 weeks ago
foosboy predicted 2011+ or never (H$200 at 34%)
23 weeks ago
nico78 predicted 2011+ or never (H$50 at 32%)
23 weeks ago
ixi_joe_ixi predicted 2011+ or never (H$17 at 32%)

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