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Will any runner be gored during the Running of the Bulls in Pamplona - July 12-14th?

Settled as One Runner Gored

The annual Running of the Bulls (also known as The Festival of San Fermin) takes place each year in Pamplona, Spain. It begins on July 7th and ends on Monday, July 14th.

The biggest crowds (and largest number of those who choose to "run with the bulls") is on the weekend. (There will be several runs from Saturday to Monday.)

"The vast number of people taking part in the bull-run nowadays adds to the already considerable danger of running alongside wild bulls weighing in the region of 700kg (1,543 pounds) each. Too many drunks taking part also increase the risks for everybody. There are plenty security guards and first aid personnel but there is little they can do during the running of the bulls such that 15 people have died and over 200 been seriously injured since 1924."

While there have already been injuries, this question asks specifically if any runners will be gored during the "running of the bulls".

More information on the festival can be found here. Or have a look at the
Pamplona Bull Run Map. The entire route of the bull-run is about 790 meters (864 yards) long, and lasts about two minutes!

See Settlement Details for important exclusions, news reporting standards and suspend time info!


Settlement details: This question will suspend on July 12, 2008, at 7:30am local time (GMT/UTC + 2:00), and settle after 9:00pm, local time on July 14, 2008
.
Reporting: News reports of injuries sustained so far have specifically mentioned "no one gored", and accordingly, this market depends on news reports that either include or exclude goring from all the other anticipated injuries.

If at the end of the runs, there are NO reports that do not specifically reference "goring" (or the absence of "goring"), this market shall be voided. The absence of a report mentioning "goring" shall not be taken to assume that "no goring took place".

While all spectators are at risk in this festival, this question is specific to "runners". In the unfortunate chance that a "spectator" is gored, painful as that is, it shall not count towards settling this market. Once the bulls have entered the bull-ring, that particular run will be over.

As reported by the Spanish Red Cross or a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

No Runner Gored
12%
One Runner Gored
21%
Two Runners Gored
18%
Three or more Runners Gored
48%
Activity: H$21,010
Settled as One Runner Gored on Tue 15th Jul 5:40am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 11th Jul 10:30pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 15th Jul 5:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 11th Jul 10:30pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: No Runner Gored: 27%, One Runner Gored: 26%, Two Runners Gored: 25%, Three or more Runners Gored: 22%

Action history:

Created Mon 7th Jul 8:34am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]
Suspended Fri 11th Jul 10:30pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 14th Jul 6:43pm PDT by curios: 45 injured during Pamplona bull run
From correspondents in Pamplona July 14, 2008 08:22pm
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Text size + - A BRITON and a Dane were among five people injured on the last day of the running of the bulls in Pamplona in northern Spain today, bringing the total number of injured to 45, organisers said. The 31-year-old Briton was taken to hospital after he injured his collarbone from a fall or collision, while a 21-year-old Danish man hurt his scalp and bruised his calf muscle. The three other injured were Spaniards.

Of the 45 people who were injured during the eight days of the running, four were gored by a bull, compared to 14 last year, organisers said in a statement.
news statment
Settled as 'One Runner Gored' Tue 15th Jul 5:40am PDT by donal

Suspend date: Fri 11th Jul 10:30pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 15th Jul 5:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 11th Jul 10:30pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (83)

83 predictions

20 weeks ago
curios predicted Three or more Runners Gored (H$50 at 50%)
20 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted Three or more Runners Gored (H$1,000 at 44%)
20 weeks ago
ph1dr predicted Three or more Runners Gored (H$100 at 38%)
20 weeks ago
hubdubbob predicted One Runner Gored (H$50 at 26%)
20 weeks ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted One Runner Gored (H$200 at 24%)
more

Comments (25)

Monday's Band-Aid Report: 13 people injured but none gored.

AP PAMPLONA, Spain—"Daredevils kicked off the running of the bulls Monday with a long, messy and particularly dangerous dash through the streets of Pamplona, with 13 people injured but none gored, officials said.

"The half-mile sprint through cobblestone streets turned chaotic because the pack of six half-ton beasts became separated early in the route after plowing into a crowd of people, some of them spectators.

"Some of the bulls fell and two ended up running on their own. One of those became disoriented, trying several times to turn around and go back toward the starting point. But herders waving sticks eventually guided it to the bull ring where the course ends.

"Inside the ring one black bull fell down and stayed there for nearly a minute, as jubilant runners scampered about.

"The Spanish Red Cross said 13 people were injured, with head, rib or other injuries from falling or getting trampled.

"It said six were Spanish and the rest were from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Britain, Romania and South Korea. No names were given. The worst off was a 37-year-old Spaniard with fractured ribs and a ruptured spleen, the Red Cross said."

<http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2008/07/07/9_injured_in_spains_first_bull_run/>
posted 21 weeks ago
  2 bayoubear[Admin]
Report on Tuesday's run...one man gored in the thigh, four others injured...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25581214/
posted 21 weeks ago
Just a reminder -- the number of runners "gored" so far is not part of the total for this question.

This question only covers runs on the 3 day weekend (Saturday - Monday), and this question suspends before the first run on Saturday.

The number of runners gored during the runs leading up to the weekend may (or may not ;-) be helpful in making more informed predictions.
posted 20 weeks ago
Wednesday's Run: 2-4 Injured; 1 American gored. 23-year old Irishman dies in unrelated fall.

PAMPLONA, Spain: (AP) "Charging bulls plowed into or trampled piles of fallen thrillseekers Wednesday, injuring at least two people at the running of the bulls, including an American who was gored in the abdomen.

"On the third day of the San Fermin festival, the six half-ton fighting bulls accompanied by steer stayed in a tight pack for much of the run, which makes the sprint safer.

"But pile-ups of fallen runners formed at several points, and bulls plowed into at least one of them and ran over others. One man in sneakers, running shorts and a tank-top bumped into the side of bull making a sharp turn and was thrown into the air.

"The Spanish Red Cross said a 22-year-old man from California was gored in the abdomen and will have to undergo surgery. His name was not released.

"A Greek man was injured in the face after being run over by bulls, the Red Cross said in a statement.

"Earlier, Red Cross spokesman Jose Aldaba had put the injury toll at four. The reason for the discrepancy was not immediately clear.

"On Sunday, a 23-year-old Irishman died after falling from an ancient wall that encircles the old quarter of Pamplona."

<http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/07/09/europe/EU-Spain-Running-of-the-Bulls.php>
posted 20 weeks ago
  5 mrperfkt[Admin]
Yep, looks like we're up to 2 after the 3rd day...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/07/09/bulls.pamplona/index.html
posted 20 weeks ago
Another reminder - this question ONLY refers to 12-14th. Current gorings don't count for this market.
posted 20 weeks ago
heh - Jenni, bet 'ya never thought you'd write a sentence containing the words "current gorings don't count" ;-)
posted 20 weeks ago
I new I'd enjoy this question! Great reply newswrangler! :)
posted 20 weeks ago
Thursday's Run - Bulls gore and crush 7 runners in Pamplona

(Reminder -- these totals do not count towards the totals for this weekend market -- see comments.)

(AP) — "A pack of fighting bulls gored a Spaniard, knocked an American unconscious and injured five other people Thursday in a dash through the streets of Pamplona to the city bullring, officials said.

"Early in the course one runner apparently just stopped and turned around to face the animals, and was bowled over violently by one of them.

"His decision was perhaps the worst thing you can do at the festival, where the cardinal rule for runners is to keep moving, or, in a pinch, hit the ground face-down and stay there until the pack has moved on.

"The Navarra regional government said a 31-year-old American was hospitalized, unconscious with a severe head injury, but that he later regained consciousness and was to undergo tests.

"A 28-year-old Spaniard was gored in the right thigh and will have to undergo surgery, the government said."


<http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gko8rTx4diPNyUS4m7K7TxDNxY9AD91QU3B02>
posted 20 weeks ago
Friday's run: "One hurt in 'near perfect' bull-run" (none gored)

"A fast, smooth running of the bulls left just one daredevil injured in Pamplona's annual San Fermin Festival and no-one gored, Spanish officials have said.

"The six fighting bulls from a ranch known for breeding swift and fierce animals stayed in a tight pack with accompanying, bell-tinkling steer for much of the half-mile run. Such a formation makes the run safer because the big danger is that a rogue bull can get nervous and prone to charge when it runs on its own.

"Javier Solano, veteran San Fermin commentator for Spanish National Television, called the run - the fifth at this year's festival - "almost textbook perfect".

"The bulls came from the Jandilla ranch, whose animals hold the record for gorings in a single run at Pamplona: eight in one sprint back in 2004.

"But this time no-one was gored and only one runner was hurt, suffering abdominal injuries, the Navarra regional government said."

<http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hrPmK2De8CR2VtQBAQE4VuPXzEFw>

Reminder: This market (question) begins the "gore count" (!) with tomorrow's run, and continues through Monday's run. I believe there is one run on each of the three days this market is open.
posted 20 weeks ago
No Bull ! -- Here's the tally:
There have been 5 runs so far, with 27 injured, plus 3 runners have been gored.

No race has had more than one goring -- so far.
However, these bulls come from the Jandilla ranch, whose animals hold the record for eight gorings in a single run at Pamplona, back in 2004.

The biggest crowds (and with it, the largest number of runners) historically occurs over the weekend of the Running of the Bulls.

So, do the math, or flip a coin ;-) -- and make your best predictions on how many runners will be gored during the 3 weekend runs. Enjoy!

this question suspends in a few hours...
posted 20 weeks ago
Pamplona's other running of the bulls is a quiet, sacred affair

This is a wonderful story I just read ... I found it in the "pulled news feed" for this question...

<http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/20080711-0605-spain-theotherrun.html>
posted 20 weeks ago
3 injured, 1 gored in Saturday's packed bull run

PAMPLONA, Spain (AP) — "A packed running of the bulls left one daredevil gored and two others slightly injured Saturday at Pamplona's annual San Fermin festival, officials said.

"Six massive fighting bulls slipped on morning dew-dampened cobblestones and tossed people aside as they ran with them on the half-mile course through the narrow city streets to the bull ring.

"The Navarra government said one person was taken to Virgen del Camino hospital with a gored buttock,
[what a way to start your weekend!] one runner suffered a broken nose and another had an injured ear.

"The run — the sixth in the weeklong adrenalin and alcohol-fueled annual festival — was quick, lasting less than three minutes despite an unusually large weekend crowd in which serious bull running aficionados were joined by revelers.

"At least three of the fierce animals from the renowned Dolores Aguirre Ybarra ranch fell, despite being accompanied by guiding steers and staff-carrying bullherds.

"One runner was caught between the horns of a bull, hit first by its left horn then the right one, before being nudged to the side. That runner avoided a goring."


<http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gko8rTx4diPNyUS4m7K7TxDNxY9AD91S6DD00>
posted 20 weeks ago
  14 Erik
If "three or more runners are gored", that also means that one runner is gored, as well as, two runners are gored. Right?
posted 20 weeks ago
  15 Erik
I just noticed the wierd wording of this market...it doesn't ask: One runner, only....or two runners only.
Perhaps this should be edited before the weekend is over
posted 20 weeks ago
  16 Erik
In the interest of full disclosure....my $$ is on a bunch of the fools getting gored. I'd just hate to see a spitzer momment come up.
posted 20 weeks ago
@ Erik -- thanks for your concern. This is a straight-forward question... there will only be one winning outcome.
No Spitzer's -- just bulls ;-)
posted 20 weeks ago
7 hurt in Sunday's running of the bulls in Pamplona - none gored

PAMPLONA, Spain (AP) — "Bulls roughed up seven people Sunday as they thundered down the rain-slicked cobblestone streets of Pamplona during the weeklong San Fermin festival, officials said.

"Sunday's run — the seventh of the festival — featured six massive Miura bulls, traditionally the largest and fastest-running fighting bulls bred in Spain. Many of those running alongside the bulls had to dive for cover as the pack neared during the half-mile stretch from corral to the bullring, with some crushed, cut and bruised.

"One man was smashed against a wooden crash barrier as the bulls rounded a bend on the course and skidded sideways into him. Another escaped a goring when he fell just in front of the charging animals.
.
"A man from Scotland who suffered a skull injury was among the seven hurt Sunday. The rest were Spaniards, a local Navarra government statement said. None were gored.

"The final run is Monday."


Note: As of Sunday, the winning prediction is "One Runner Gored".
Hubdub users who want to ensure a change to the outcome need to act quickly.
posted 20 weeks ago
  19 destry[Admin]
"A man from Scotland who suffered a skull injury was among the seven hurt Sunday. The rest were Spaniards, a local Navarra government statement said. None were gored.
Has anyone talked to or checked on Nigel?
posted 20 weeks ago
  20 lesley[Admin]
He's currently somewhere over the Atlantic...skull intact as far as I know!
posted 20 weeks ago
  21 destry[Admin]
Maybe we should had Nigel run with the bulls while wearing a hubdub shirt. We need to know how far he will go.
posted 20 weeks ago
5 hurt in year's last Spanish bull run -- none gored.

PAMPLONA, Spain (AP) — "A pack of steers and fighting bulls injured five people on their last run through the streets of Pamplona Monday in a relatively safe end to the weeklong San Fermin festival.

"No one was gored but injuries included a fractured collar bone and hand and groin injuries, said Dr. Ignacio Yurs, director of Navarra Hospital.

"The six fighting bulls and six steers stayed together for much of the last of their eight runs through the cobblestone streets, which made it safer.

"Some of the bulls fell and piles of fallen humans formed at several stages, but the run was largely smooth."


AFP reports the total number of wounded during the festival was 45.

"Of the 45 people who were injured during the eight days of the running, four were gored by a bull, compared to 14 last year, organisers said in a statement."

The winning prediction for this question (market) is "One Runner Gored".
posted 20 weeks ago
  23 curios
45 injured during Pamplona bull run
From correspondents in Pamplona July 14, 2008 08:22pm
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Text size + - A BRITON and a Dane were among five people injured on the last day of the running of the bulls in Pamplona in northern Spain today, bringing the total number of injured to 45, organisers said. The 31-year-old Briton was taken to hospital after he injured his collarbone from a fall or collision, while a 21-year-old Danish man hurt his scalp and bruised his calf muscle. The three other injured were Spaniards.

Of the 45 people who were injured during the eight days of the running, four were gored by a bull, compared to 14 last year, organisers said in a statement.
posted 20 weeks ago
@curios - Remember this question only referred to the weekend gorings.. So if you count the three that happened over the week and then the one this weekend, that matches the 4 listed in your article. (Weekend gorings. Roger what are you doing to me?)
posted 20 weeks ago
  25 curios
@jenniandboys
ok point taken the one gored was on the 9th
posted 20 weeks ago

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