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Will Brooke Bennett's uncle be convicted of her murder?

Current forecast: 70% chance 2%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 70% likely to happen (down 2% in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
70%
No
30%
Activity: H$21,472
Question suspends in 31 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 9th Jul 2009 12:59am PDT (31 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 8th Jul 5:14am PDT by coolkraft

Suspend date: Thu 9th Jul 2009 12:59am PDT (31 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (40)

40 predictions

7 weeks ago
smgizmo2 predicted Yes (H$100 at 70%)
9 weeks ago
bruns_david predicted No (H$25 at 28%)
13 weeks ago
coolkraft predicted Yes (H$500 at 72%)
16 weeks ago
mrsprfct predicted Yes (H$100 at 72%)
19 weeks ago
morgie predicted No (H$50 at 28%)
more

Comments (4)

Could I get a clarification on some small points?

What happens to this question if, GOD FORBID, this allegedly deranged young man is killed by the other inmates or commits suicide? Will the question be settled as a “NO”?

And what happens to this market if he is found incompetent to stand trial based on insanity?
posted 20 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
Not speaking officially, but I believe that if he was to get killed or committ suicide before the verdict, he would not be convicted of the charge of murder. In reference to your second question some states offer a not guilty by reason of insanity so that would be a no to a conviction. Some states offer guilty but insane (changes how person is sentenced), and that would be a YES. The Not Guilty by reason of insanity is a determination that person needs institutional help and then down road if they are "cured" they are released. I am not familar with the laws of this particular state or whether insanity is a possible defense in this particular case.
I think the smart money here is on a Yes he will be convicted of murder, more than likely he will work out some plea deal which requires him to plead guilty to murder in exchange for sentencing reduction.
posted 20 weeks ago
Thanks Destry - I just plunked down money on "no" on the off chance he doesn't make it to trial, and get to see the BIG JUDGE instead. Just asking! ;)
posted 20 weeks ago

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