
Higher on election day? Positive approval rating for Congress or US % of 08 Olympic medals awarded?
)"The percentage of voters who give Congress good or excellent ratings has fallen to single digits for the first time in Rasmussen Reports tracking history. This month, just 9% say Congress is doing a good or excellent job. Most voters (52%) say Congress is doing a poor job, which ties the record high in that dubious category." Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_performance/congressional_performance. This is a decline from 11% the previous month.
Stat # 2.... In the last summer Olympics the US earned 102 out of 929 medals awarded or 9.1%.
Market is looking to forecast which will be greater on the last day of announced polling by Rasmussen for positive (good or excellent) ratings of the US Congress ~ OR ~ the ratio of medals that the US will will in this years Summer Games. Obviously the ratio for US medals will be known well before the election, so the trick will be to forecast whether those polled will have an improved image of Congress by election day or whether the general malaise continues.
Make your prediction!
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Congressional approval rating beats US medal TTL |
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US Olympic medal count higher than Congress. rtg |
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Statistical tie within 2% of each other |
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Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
If the Congressional approval rating is 7,8,9,10 or 11% and the Olympic medals won by the United States at the Summer games in August this year is 9% then the third option of Statistical tie within 2% of each other will apply and be the winning selection.
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (8 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Congressional approval rating beats US medal TTL: 47%, US Olympic medal count higher than Congress. rtg: 47%, Statistical tie within 2% of each other: 6%
Action history:
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. ... read all
Predictions (42)
42 predictions
Comments (3)
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http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2008-07-16-poll-congress_N.htm
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