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Higher on election day? Positive approval rating for Congress or US % of 08 Olympic medals awarded?

Current forecast: Congressional approval rating beats US medal TTL (49% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Congressional approval rating beats US medal TTL with a probability of 49% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Here are a couple of interesting statistics... today Rasmussen announced that Congress had the lowest ever positive approval rating for members of the US Congress at just 9%.

"The percentage of voters who give Congress good or excellent ratings has fallen to single digits for the first time in Rasmussen Reports tracking history. This month, just 9% say Congress is doing a good or excellent job. Most voters (52%) say Congress is doing a poor job, which ties the record high in that dubious category." Source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_performance/congressional_performance. This is a decline from 11% the previous month.

Stat # 2.... In the last summer Olympics the US earned 102 out of 929 medals awarded or 9.1%.

Market is looking to forecast which will be greater on the last day of announced polling by Rasmussen for positive (good or excellent) ratings of the US Congress ~ OR ~ the ratio of medals that the US will will in this years Summer Games. Obviously the ratio for US medals will be known well before the election, so the trick will be to forecast whether those polled will have an improved image of Congress by election day or whether the general malaise continues.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Congressional approval rating beats US medal TTL
49%
US Olympic medal count higher than Congress. rtg
25%
Statistical tie within 2% of each other
26%
Activity: H$20,747
Question suspends in 8 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

If the Congressional approval rating is 7,8,9,10 or 11% and the Olympic medals won by the United States at the Summer games in August this year is 9% then the third option of Statistical tie within 2% of each other will apply and be the winning selection.

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (8 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Congressional approval rating beats US medal TTL: 47%, US Olympic medal count higher than Congress. rtg: 47%, Statistical tie within 2% of each other: 6%

Action history:

Created Tue 8th Jul 9:11am PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. ... read all

 

Predictions (42)

42 predictions

4 days ago
l80bug predicted US Olympic medal count higher than Congress. rtg (H$20 at 25%)
2 weeks ago
jim_english predicted US Olympic medal count higher than Congress. rtg (H$100 at 22%)
7 weeks ago
onedave predicted Congressional approval rating beats US medal TTL (H$20 at 61%)
7 weeks ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted Congressional approval rating beats US medal TTL (H$200 at 60%)
8 weeks ago
noozdude predicted Statistical tie within 2% of each other (H$50 at 24%)
more

Comments (3)

Great question!
posted 8 weeks ago
  2 skins
Yes. I second that. Great question!!!
posted 8 weeks ago

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