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Will President Obama raise the capital gains tax?

Current forecast: 33% chance 15%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 33% likely to happen (down 15% in last 1 day)

Background on the feasibility of this can be found here

Market Settlement Details: The market settles on July 7th, if President Obama has not raised the capital gains tax by that date the market settles as no.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Market Settlement Details: The market settles on July 7th, if President Obama has not raised the capital gains tax by that date the market settles as no.

Any increase in the Capital Gains tax would settle the market. Currently it is at 15%.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
33%
No
67%
Activity: H$54,059
Question suspends in 31 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 8th Jul 2009 12:59am PDT (31 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (80)

80 predictions

2 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted Yes (H$100 at 29%)
2 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted Yes (H$400 at 29%)
3 weeks ago
sujal predicted Yes (H$50 at 46%)
3 weeks ago
gilliganp predicted Yes (H$100 at 51%)
3 weeks ago
thedrake000 predicted Yes (H$100 at 51%)
more

Comments (20)

What if he raises the tax only on high income families? Will it still settle as yes? (flagging)
posted 20 weeks ago
Or, one could ask, "Will the current do-nothing Congress continue it's storied tradition?"
posted 20 weeks ago
  3 Erik
Raising taxes is not in the realm of the executive branches abilities. That would fall to the legislature. This market, as worded, is an impossibility.
posted 20 weeks ago
  4 randburg
Erik is right.
posted 20 weeks ago
  5 dieseldog
superuser should suspend this so nobody wagers on it.
posted 20 weeks ago
  6 destry[Admin]
@dieseldog - 3 separate super users have flagged this to the category editor. Because it is part of the punditwatch screen name we typically don't suspend those markets, we let the category editor do it. These pundit watch markets are part of a bigger marketing program. I am sure the category editor will clear this all up shortly.
posted 20 weeks ago
  7 Erik
Who is punditwatch?
posted 20 weeks ago
  8 Erik
Thank you, randburg.
posted 20 weeks ago
Punditwatch is the account that makes questions for the (fake) pundits to wager on. Read more here: http://punditwatch.hubdub.com/
posted 20 weeks ago
  10 ryanj[Admin]
Hi,

I've edited the market to make it clear that any increase in the capital gains under a Obama presidency would settle the market (up until July 8th 2009). As to Eric's point about this not being possible, if Obama is elected an increase in the capital gains tax would be credited to him. So we could say will Obama with Congress raise the capital gains tax, but the question still means the same thing. If it's raised the market settles as a yes, if not a no.

Hope this clears it up,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 20 weeks ago
  11 curios
if he does and, if he gets in, is a lot too many if's. and the way it will have to through all the departments some how big business will stall it,?
posted 10 weeks ago
Financial Crisis and the Way to Recovery

The term “shocking” can’t even come close to describe the severity of the financial crisis that we are faced with. According to Barack Obama, the only way we can get out of this mess is for this country to adapt socialistic values and enforce socialism by gaining control of all three branches of government. I’m sure that the mountain of money his campaign has collected from domestic and foreign donors, names the Obama campaign won’t disclose, will be used for that purpose. As soon as total control is gained, organizations like ACORN will have a green light to further abuse the law to suppress free speech, control the outcomes of elections and brain wash children in schools to believe that socialism is the answer to all of our problems. With total control of the government, and help from people like Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright and Antoin Rezko, who will probably be pardoned, achieving the ultimate goal, “a life of sexual confusion and moral collapse” will become a strong possibility.
The proof that socialism, or spreading the wealth around does not work can be seen by examining ACORN and its accomplishments by manipulating bancs to make loans to minorities with bad credit. By using charges of racism and threats to use CRA to block business expansions, ACORN and Obama already contributed to the crises we are in today and finding new ways to distribute the wealth will only make the situation much worse. His idea to put a three-month moratorium on foreclosures will further weaken the already fragile banking industry and only benefit delinquent homeowners by allowing them to live rent-free.
In order for our economy to start prospering again, we first need to elect an honest leader who is determined to stamp out the corruption in government and to stop the leftist movement from destroying the middle class. The hard working people can no longer be expected to keep giving until they themselves have nothing left to give.

Cybercorrespondent
http://cybercorrespondent.blogspot.com
posted 5 weeks ago
Well said.
posted 5 weeks ago
They plan to tax us into prosperity!
posted 5 weeks ago
Brilliant! I am starting to understand his plan! He will lower taxes for "95% of america" and raise taxes for people who employ 75% of working americans! Then if by some miracle that works and the economy gets better he will raise taxes on everyone and restart the cycle!
posted 5 weeks ago
  16 nightwish
geez, americans, always fearing what everyone else figured out decades ago.
posted 4 weeks ago
Questioning the American Bolshevik views
1. Is wealth redistribution taking money from stockholders and redistributing it to those who don’t pay taxes?
2. Is it more important to make sure that illegal votes are not disenfranchised or making sure that groups like ACORN do not nullify honest votes.
3. Would premature U.S. withdrawal from Iraq grand jihadists a victory and make all of our accomplishments, money spent and lives lost a big waist?
4. Can this country afford to grant socialist Democrats total control of the government and allow them to sacrifice our safety by cutting the military budget by 25%?
Now comes the big question. How do we stop socialism from ruining our lives?
The answer is simple. Don’t vote American Bolsheviks into power and boycott the socialist propaganda media into bankruptcy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjvBEKrGkDI
Cybercorrespondent
http://cybercorrespondent.blogspot.com
posted 4 weeks ago
If we look at history, Bill Clinton, the last Democrat to be elected President, promised tax cuts when running for office. He "changed his mind" after the election. He was not even sworn in as President before he started publicly backtracking on that promise.

Here is a news article from January 15, 1993 that covers this (6 days before taking the oath of office):
"Clinton now Says: The 'Big Things' Never Included his Tax-cut Vow," http://www.iht.com/articles/1993/01/15/cut1.php
posted 4 weeks ago
  19 dieseldog
bill richardson has it down to people making more than $120k a year will see a tax increase i guess obama needs to hide him where their hiding biden. :O)
posted 4 weeks ago
  20 nightwish
@cybercorrespondent:
1-I think you should look at the opposite redistribution for that welfare means there days.
2-As opposed to Diebold? Nice try, epic fail.
3-It already is a big waste, to the beating of trillions of dollars.
4-Not only can it afford, it needs to in order not to go bankrupt.

But then, I'm just a communist European.
posted 2 weeks ago

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