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Created Wed 9th Jul 7:59am PDT by dan121377
All questions » Technology » Internet » 

What letter will the Featured Article on the English Wikipedia for July 12, 2008 start with?

Settled as E-H

Genetics

Background:

On http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page there is a featured article every day (see "Today's featured article"). Today's (7/9) is "Atom", so the winning answer would be "A-D".

What letter will 7/12's featured article start with?


Settlement details: Per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page on 7/12

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 A-D
13%
E-H
40%
I-L
11%
M-Q
14%
R-U
12%
W-Z
9%
Activity: H$3,685
Settled as E-H on Sat 12th Jul 12:51pm PDT

Suspend date: Thu 10th Jul 9:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 12th Jul 12:51pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 10th Jul 9:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: A-D: 17%, E-H: 16%, I-L: 16%, M-Q: 17%, R-U: 17%, W-Z: 17%

Action history:

Created Wed 9th Jul 7:59am PDT by dan121377
Suspended Thu 10th Jul 9:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 12th Jul 9:11am PDT by jlew1122: Today 7/12
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
Featured article is on "Genetics"
starts with G which is between E-H
Settled as 'E-H' Sat 12th Jul 12:51pm PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: Genetics

Suspend date: Thu 10th Jul 9:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 12th Jul 12:51pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 10th Jul 9:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (38)

38 predictions

20 weeks ago
kornbred predicted W-Z (H$20 at 9%)
20 weeks ago
dan121377 predicted E-H (H$575 at 37%)
20 weeks ago
asiram predicted M-Q (H$50 at 15%)
20 weeks ago
amice predicted A-D (H$20 at 15%)
20 weeks ago
swilson predicted I-L (H$100 at 12%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 newswrangler[Power User]
What happens if the featured article is on Valium?
posted 20 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
Well I think our guidance would suggest that since that is likely to occur only 3.8% of the time, we leave question as is, and issue void if that is the case.
posted 20 weeks ago
  3 kruijs[Power User]
If the article would start with the answer to _the_ question?
posted 20 weeks ago
  4 dieseldog
so 3.8% is ok, but 1.9% is a terrible thing...hmmmmm
posted 20 weeks ago
  5 jenniandboys[Admin]
Well 3.8 is actually high.. That's assuming that all letters are equally distributed in the English language (1/26 = .038 = 3.8%) -- which is very not true.

In fact http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_analysis suggests its much closer to 1%.

Not that it matters since we've all agreed to let it run!
posted 20 weeks ago
  6 dan121377
My bad on V. :(
posted 20 weeks ago

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